Recently, the global financial market is in a sensitive phase intertwined with multiple variables, as geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East continue to ferment, US economic data weakens, and inflation expectations heat up again. At the macro level, there is intense competition between "stagflation trades" and "soft landing trades"; the crypto market is showing independent trends, with BTC leading the rebound of US stocks, and a clear divergence between institutional and retail positions, making the short-term market direction increasingly clear. The BitMart Research Institute combines macroeconomic and core variables in the crypto market to provide the latest interpretations and outlooks.
1. Macroeconomics: Middle East Disturbances Affect Energy Supply, US Stagflation Risks Rise
1. Geopolitics Triggers Energy Supply Shocks
The current core focus of the global market is on the Middle East situation, where conflicts between the US, Israel, and Iran directly threaten the shipping security of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran may disrupt the passage of tankers using drones and other means, leading to shipping insurance suspensions and vessels avoiding travel, thus posing significant risks of supply shocks to global crude oil and natural gas. If the situation escalates further, major oil-producing countries in the Gulf could be forced to halt production within weeks to a month, with international oil prices already experiencing violent fluctuations, briefly nearing $120 per barrel.
2. Weak US Employment Data
Despite being overshadowed by geopolitical news, the latest employment data in the US still shows signs of weakness. Key sectors such as manufacturing, real estate, services, IT, healthcare, and education are experiencing layoffs or slowing growth. At the same time, the US labor participation rate is declining, and the unemployment rate is rising, indicating that the actual employment situation is more severe than surface data suggests, and the downward pressure on the economy continues to increase.
3. Inflation Rebound Limits Fed’s Rate Cut Space
The rise in oil prices, combined with adjustments to the CPI statistical method (interpolation), will drive a significant rebound in the US CPI over the coming months. As a result, the market has sharply revised down expectations for Fed rate cuts in 2026, with the current mainstream expectation now just two rate cuts remaining, and a consensus has formed that the easing cycle will be delayed and weakened.
4. US Stocks Are Volatile and Weak, Asset Allocation Is Defensive
US stocks are likely to maintain a volatile and weak trend in the short term, with indices expected to operate in the range of 6700–7000 points, and the probability of breaking below 6700 points is increasing. If the Middle East situation suddenly eases, the market may see a rapid rebound due to short covering. The current market is swaying between "stagflation trades" and "soft landing trades," and if energy shocks continue to drag on the economy, stagflation trades are likely to become the main theme.
In terms of allocation, it is recommended to adopt a hedging approach: invest in the oil and gas sector and fertilizer companies benefiting from the gas price disparity between Europe and the US; at the same time, be wary of the debt default risks of AI industry chains and private equity-driven software companies, and guard against phase liquidity shocks.
2. Crypto Market: BTC Strengthens Independently, Diverging Positions Between Institutions and Retail
1. BTC Leads the Rebound, May Test $80,000 in the Short Term
BTC strongly rebounded after market panic, reaching a high of $74,000; it is currently oscillating in the range of $60,000–$74,000, again showing classic cyclical characteristics of declining before US stocks and rebounding ahead of US stocks. In the short term, BTC still has rebound momentum and is highly likely to challenge the $80,000 mark, and may enter a consolidation phase along with US stocks afterward.
2. Derivative Signals: Leverage Rising, Hedging Demand Increasing
The spot CVD (cumulative volume deviation) remains negative, with slightly more active selling pressure; however, during price corrections, open interest in futures continues to rise, gradually increasing market leverage levels. The perpetual contract funding rate briefly turned negative (longs paying shorts), usually corresponding to phase bottom areas; the premium on put options in the options market has risen significantly, and investors' willingness to hedge against downside risks has notably increased.
3. Institutions Continue Accumulating, Divergent Positions Between Retail and Large Players
Bitcoin ETF saw a slight net inflow last week, with MicroStrategy investing about $1.2 billion (buying approximately 17,000 BTC), setting a new record for weekly increases. Shares of crypto-related US stocks such as Coinbase and MSTR surged, indicating that some capital is proactively positioning for favorable policies and regulations.
On-chain and DEX data show that retail investors (small wallets) hold over 60% long positions, while quantitative funds and large players lean towards short positions, reflecting a clear divergence in sentiment between institutions and retail investors.
4. Overall Lackluster Performance in Altcoins, Focused Funding on Major Assets
Currently, the altcoin sector lacks a central narrative and capital inflow; except for a few popular meme coins, most varieties are performing poorly, and market attention remains concentrated on BTC and a few leading assets.
3. Summary and Outlook
At the macro level, geopolitical risks in the Middle East and energy supply shocks are the largest variables in the short term, with stagflation logic gradually strengthening. US stocks are under pressure, with defensive and hedging assets prevailing; the crypto market is showing a relatively independent trend, with BTC demonstrating resilience, and institutional accumulation supporting mid-term prices. There remains a short-term rebound window, but caution is required regarding the linkage pressure from US stock corrections.
The BitMart Research Institute reminds investors to closely monitor the developments in the Middle East, US inflation data, and the Fed's statements, controlling positions in a high-volatility environment, and ensuring proper risk hedging, while prioritizing attention to liquid leading assets and sectors with real demand.
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