In the past 24 hours, the global financial market seems to have experienced a major turnaround in emotions. With subtle changes in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and new developments in US domestic politics, risk assets have welcomed a long-awaited celebration.
Bitcoin sounded the horn first, breaking through the 70,000 dollar mark for the first time in nearly a month; while the previously plummeting Japanese and Korean stock markets, which were affected by tariffs and the shadow of war, also opened significantly higher today, staging a retaliatory rebound. What market logic is hidden behind this sudden "all green" trend?
1. Bitcoin's Aggressive Surge, Targeting 75,000 Dollars
● In the early morning of March 5, the crypto market welcomed a shining moment. Bitcoin's price surged, reaching a high of 74,050 dollars, marking a new high since February 5. This increase was accompanied by a significant rise in trading volume, demonstrating a strong willingness of new funds to enter the market.
● In the derivatives market, investor sentiment quickly warmed up. As Bitcoin stabilized above 73,000 dollars, data from the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket underwent dramatic changes.
● Currently, the market estimates that the probability of "Bitcoin rising to 75,000 dollars in March" has soared to around 78%, while the probability of it rising to 80,000 dollars has also reached 46%. This indicates that after earlier oscillations, the market generally believes that Bitcoin has reestablished a strong position in the short term.
● From on-chain data, the range between 72,000 dollars and 80,000 dollars is a clear "supply thin area". Historical data shows that the number of Bitcoins traded in this range is relatively low, accounting for only about 1% of the circulating supply. This implies that once the bulls successfully hold above the 72,000 dollar mark, the resistance above may be much less than the market expects, and price movements may become smoother.
2. Warming Macroeconomic Environment: From Geopolitical Conflict to Finalized Personnel
The recent rise of risk assets is not an isolated event, but is catalyzed by profound macro logic.
● Firstly, there are signs of easing geopolitical tensions. Previously, the escalating conflict between the US and Iran had sparked panic selling in global markets. However, recent news indicates that the extreme deterioration expectations have not further materialized. Analysts note that the market seems to have absorbed the news of the US airstrikes on Iran over the weekend, and some funds that had previously exited due to risk aversion are starting to flow back in.
● Secondly, the clarification of US domestic political processes has also injected confidence into the market. The White House has submitted the nomination of Kevin Warsh for the position of Federal Reserve Chair to the Senate. The advancement of this key position nominee reduces uncertainties regarding future monetary policy, which often translates to premium for the capital market.
● Under the combined impact of "eased macro concerns + stabilized liquidity expectations", previously pressured technology stocks and the crypto sector became the leaders in the rebound.
3. Institutional Buying and Concept Stocks' Frenzy
With the warming of cryptocurrency prices, US-listed companies related to crypto delivered impressive performance results.
● MicroStrategy (MSTR): As the publicly listed company holding the most Bitcoin, its stock price is deeply tied to Bitcoin's price. Yesterday, MSTR closed up 10.37%, reflecting the capital market's recognition of its asset value reevaluation.
● Coinbase (COIN): As the largest compliant cryptocurrency exchange in the US, COIN directly benefits from the increase in trading activity. The stock showed strong performance yesterday, closing up 14.57%, making it one of the best-performing large-cap stocks in the S&P 500 Index.
● Other Concept Stocks: Mining companies and related industrial chains also rose, with CRCL up 5.63%.
What is more noteworthy is that behind this round of price increases is the firm buying intent of institutional funds. On-chain data analysis platform Lookonchain reported that the world’s largest asset management company, BlackRock, has recently ramped up its purchases. Since February 24, it has accumulated more than 17,642 Bitcoins through the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) spot ETF, with a total value of about 1.28 billion dollars. The "buying spree" of institutions not only provides solid buying support for the market but is also interpreted by the market as backing for the medium to long-term trends.
4. Asia-Pacific Market Relay: Violent Rebound in Japanese and Korean Stock Markets
● The heat of the crypto market quickly transmitted to traditional capital markets, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, which had previously experienced deep declines. On March 5, the Japanese and Korean stock markets demonstrated a retaliatory rebound. As of the time of writing, the Nikkei 225 index continues to rise after opening high, reaching a peak increase of 4.28%, with the index running around 56,564 points.
● The KOSPI index in South Korea had an even more remarkable performance. After experiencing a more than 12% plummet the previous day, today's index opened high, with intraday gains exceeding 11%, strongly recovering some of yesterday's losses, closing above 5,654 points.
●This extreme V-shaped reversal reflects, on one hand, a correction of previous excessively pessimistic sentiment, and on the other hand, it indicates that in global capital movements, risk appetite is rapidly rebounding.
5. Risks and Outlook: Beware of Short-Term Overheating
Amidst the cheer, there are also rational voices in the market.
●From a technical perspective, significant pressure still lies ahead. Analysts note that although Bitcoin has temporarily broken through 73,000 dollars, it faces resistance from the 50-day moving average (around 76,350 dollars). Without stronger upward catalysts, the rebound path may not be smooth. Additionally, weekly levels still need to be cautious of the emergence of a "death cross", which usually signals that the medium to long-term trend may not be fully reversed yet.
●In terms of chip structure, there is potential for selling pressure. David Morrison, senior market analyst at Trade Nation, warns that although key price levels have been breached, there is still a risk of "false breakouts". If the price wishes to continue upward, any pullbacks in the future must hold the 70,000 dollar psychological level; otherwise, this wave of increases might just be a fleeting moment under bearish pressure.
●Overall, the current market is in a game of "macroeconomic sentiment recovery" versus "technical critical pressure". Whether Bitcoin can truly open the door to 80,000 dollars depends on the sustained increase in trading volume and whether more favorable macro news follows. For investors, while enjoying the rebound, it may still be necessary to retain a certain respect for high volatility.
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