In the world, all is bustling for profit; the world is bustling for benefits! Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui, focusing on the analysis of digital currency market trends, striving to convey the most valuable information about the coin market to the majority of coin friends. Welcome the attention and likes from all coin friends, and reject any market smoke bombs!

After a sleepless night, the topic discussed by all analysts in the financial field is whether Khamenei was sacrificed. Lao Cui also paid attention to military factors throughout the night. Fortunately, at this stage, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have fully recovered to their prices before the war. The market has come to an end, and I can finally set aside my worries. Yesterday's conflict made Lao Cui quite anxious, after all, we are in a downward range, or even in what most analysts consider to be a bear market phase. Lao Cui firmly sees a fluctuating upward trend, but there are some ripples in my heart. Such military-level conflicts are enough to bring the coin circle back into a downward range. Lao Cui cannot predict this power. Looking at the price fluctuations of gold and the rising trend of the coin circle, the outcome is no longer very important. Although currently, only Trump has verbally confirmed Khamenei's death, there is no substantial evidence released by any official sources, the market seems to have already provided the answer. Even if Khamenei appears complete later, it will not have too much impact on the result, after all, his loyal followers have basically been cleared away.

In line with our usual rhetoric, Trump's recent strike can be considered basically successful. So far, Iranian media have confirmed that Khamenei has been assassinated, and the previous text will no longer be modified. Regarding this military action, from the perspective of the United States, it has been completely successful on the economic level. The market trend of the coin circle has also fully cooperated, with Bitcoin prices reaching above 67,000 and Ethereum entering the 2,000 threshold once again. This action has already provided direction for the future trends in the coin circle, and it can basically be confirmed that it is difficult for new lows to break again in the future. In terms of news impact, unless there is opposition from Trump, otherwise it will involve military action escalation, and in the short term, it may be hard to have further shocks on the military front. Judging by the current clues, the surge in U.S. stocks has basically been confirmed, and the entire dollar asset is likely to see a growth space of 10-20%. The dollar will still maintain a weakened loose policy, and the coin circle will also return to the bull market phase.

At this stage, everyone can equate the dollar or dollar assets with crude oil. The pricing power of crude oil has almost been completely monopolized by the United States, and our development of electric energy will also continue for the long term, resolutely moving forward. Through this incident, I believe many users have realized how greatly news impacts the coin circle. Early in the morning, Lao Cui also mentioned this in his private channels. Trump's confirmation was around 10 PM last night, while Bitcoin's fluctuation occurred between 9 PM and 10 PM. The earliest official report from China came out around 5 to 6 AM, with a time difference of as much as 6-7 hours. By the time the news surfaced, the whales had already completed their layouts; even if the upward trend did not end later, this time difference was already fatal. Regarding the discourse in private channels, Lao Cui cannot present it in the article. This is not a criticism of domestic media, as domestic media are among the most authoritative and rigorous institutions globally and must be verified.

Consider this a kind reminder for those interested in cryptocurrency to try to look at other institutions that are not so rigorous and to master some quicker news. Including myself, Lao Cui also finds it hard to update such signaling information in a timely manner. Please observe yourselves, and if you see it, feel free to ask Lao Cui. For real-time fluctuations, Lao Cui will mainly respond to news, unable to update articles in time. Everyone should not think that the bull market will return to the coin market from now on; the current bull market start will definitely not be because of military conflict. Current coin prices will only revert to previous highs. Whether military conflict will end is still unknown. As long as military conflict continues, financial turmoil will persist. My personal view is that the recent conflict between Iran and Israel will end, and there will likely be results within three days, after all, a headless situation is not to be feared.

The current unstable factor lies in who will be the next decision-maker in Iran? The U.S. predicts that a hardliner will take over. Will the hardliner still be tough? Some coin friends might say, didn’t Iran carry out retaliatory actions? This kind of retaliatory action is generally a pre-plan, meaning it does not require orders from the supreme leader; it is a direct counterattack. Currently, Iran should consider who to choose as the ruler. There will definitely be different voices internally, and a civil war is also very likely to break out. Whether they have the energy to deal with Trump is also a huge question. Their domestic discourse is very complicated, and I do not understand this well, but as long as the military conflict ends, the trend in the coin circle will become clearer. The coin circle will not head back into a downward space due to escalating military conflicts. Remember this viewpoint: as long as the conflict expansion begins, then the coin circle will surely decline again; Lao Cui leans more toward symbolic retaliation, merely making a statement domestically.

Back to the coin market, on March 1st, it is reported that the price of Ethereum has dropped 60% from its peak in 2025, currently around 2032 dollars, but traditional financial institutions are still accelerating the adoption of the Ethereum network. Data shows that Ethereum and its layer two networks account for 65% of the total locked value market share, with the Ethereum mainnet accounting for 57%, approximately 52.4 billion dollars. Institutions such as JP Morgan, Citi, Deutsche Bank, and BlackRock have recently launched on-chain projects on Ethereum, including tokenized funds, specialized layer two scaling solutions, and bank-issued stablecoins. Moreover, Ethereum occupies 68% of the market share in the real-world asset sector. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin is focusing on layer one scaling and zero-knowledge Ethereum virtual machines (ZK-EVM) to enhance on-chain efficiency and security. Although the trading volume of decentralized exchanges has decreased by 55% over the past six months, Ethereum still maintains an advantage in institutional-level on-chain activities. This data is extremely important, as Ethereum is sure to experience significant growth this year, and reaching a historic high is also very likely.

Lao Cui summarizes: Today's article is somewhat rushed, and the news I hold has not yet been fully responded to, just a brief chat with everyone. Whether from a data perspective or news perspective, after the negative news is fully released, it becomes positive. Everyone needs to confirm whether there will be news even larger than the military conflict between Iran and Israel in the future? If not, then this year’s new low can basically be confirmed. Bitcoin would probably only drop below 60,000 in the case of a flash crash; new lows have basically bottomed out. Through the data, one can see that in the entire downward trend, institutions are actually increasing their applications for Ethereum, which indicates that the giants have not given up on Ethereum. As long as a rebound occurs, the bull market for Ethereum shouldn’t require too much questioning. Its scale and funds are enough to support the arrival of new highs. Moreover, Bitcoin's mining costs have recently soared to around 8WU, nearly breaking its cost price; further declines would necessitate reassessment of the entire coin circle's impact. My personal opinion still leans toward a fluctuating upward trend, and new lows will not occur. At the same time, a bull market will not start from this; we need more significant positive news to stimulate it. The energy sector will still have growth potential, and Iran will definitely part with its energy; the coin circle reminds everyone not to chase longs as there may still be variables ahead. It’s best to wait for the negotiation results before proceeding, and for contracts, it is still preferable to consult Lao Cui, based on real-time news.

Original creation from WeChat public account: Lao Cui Talks About Coins. For assistance, feel free to contact directly.

Lao Cui's message: Investing is like playing chess; masters can see five moves, seven moves, or even ten moves ahead, while lower-level players can only see two or three moves. Those at higher levels consider the overall situation, strategizing for the bigger picture without being overly concerned with individual pieces or territories, focusing on winning the game. In contrast, lower-level players fight for every inch, frequently switching positions, only concerning themselves with short-term gains, resulting in frequent troubles.

This material is for learning purposes only and does not constitute trading advice. Trading based on it is at your own risk!

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