India's 384 billion US dollars stock market shifts towards the trend of gold and silver.

CN
2 hours ago

On February 26, 2026, Indian market regulators approved a globally significant adjustment: allowing actively managed equity funds with a total scale of approximately 384 billion dollars to increase the allocation of gold and silver assets. This decision comes at a time when global financial markets are experiencing intensified turbulence and a resurgence of risk aversion, making it even more significant. For a long time, gold has been nearly equivalent to "hard currency" in Indian household wealth, deeply embedded in marriage, heritage, and savings habits, while mainstream narratives in capital markets have favored equities and growth. Now, as regulators formally open a larger institutional entrance for precious metals, a critical question emerges: what sense of security and new balance are Indian funds truly seeking as they shift from a preference for stocks to embracing gold and silver?

384 Billion Dollar Deregulation: The Gold Outflow of Equity Funds

● Structural Deregulation: The entities allowed to increase the allocation of gold and silver in this round are actively managed equity funds, centered on stocks, with a total scale of approximately 384 billion dollars. This is not a blanket opening for the entire market, but rather a structural deregulation targeting product types that can actively adjust their portfolios. This means that regulators choose to first loosen the restrictions in the most flexible allocation sectors, allowing professional institutions to reshape the risk and return curves within the existing framework, rather than simply changing the asset attributes of the entire public fund industry.

● Rewriting Allocation Logic: The general policy direction is that “stocks remain the main axis,” allowing a higher proportion to be allocated to precious metals like gold and silver without undermining the fundamental positioning of equity products. Since the specific upper limits and timelines have not yet been made public, the market is currently more focused on defining trends rather than calculating fine parameters. However, it can be confirmed that fund managers will gain greater freedom to elevate precious metals from being a past “marginal embellishment” to a genuinely hedging and allocation-functional asset branch.

● Blurred Industry Boundaries: For India's public fund industry, the greatest significance of this adjustment lies in the fact that the institutional boundaries between traditional equity products and precious metal assets have been opened up. In the past, households either bought stock funds for growth, or defended themselves with jewelry, physical assets, and a small amount of precious metal products. Now, the same actively managed stock fund can embed “hedging factors.” Funds no longer have to choose between “growth” and “preservation of value,” but can achieve combinations within the same product, transforming public funds into a new type of “pipeline” between stocks and gold.

From Dowry to Fund Shares: The Financialization of India’s Gold Obsession

● Cultural Background: As the second largest gold consumer in the world, India's preference for gold has deep cultural roots that span generations. From wedding dowries to festive gifts, and to the family’s “bottom drawer” savings form, gold has long been viewed as the ultimate safeguard against currency depreciation and life uncertainties. This deeply embedded asset view in social structure means that “having gold in hand” is almost equivalent to having a sense of security, explaining why gold consistently occupies an important weight in Indian household asset portfolios.

● Generational and Urbanization Turnaround: The traditional path involves purchasing gold jewelry, gold bars, or physical silver, rather than indirectly holding them through financial products. However, as urbanization progresses and financial literacy among the younger generation increases, an increasing number of middle-class individuals are beginning to understand the significance of ETFs, fund shares, and other forms of “paper gold.” Physical purchases emphasize ritual and possession, while fund forms emphasize liquidity, transparency, and portfolio management capabilities, reflecting a structural shift from rural to urban, from family goldsmiths to financial intermediaries.

● From Jewelry to “Gold Notes”: The current round of regulatory easing brings institutional products closer to Indian households' emotional preferences for gold, presented in a more modern package. For many families, “buying gold jewelry for the daughter” is gradually layering with “investing in gold funds for the children,” transforming the gold narrative from visible and tangible jewelry into numbers and shares in accounts. Gold is being rewritten as a “tradable note” rather than a single ornament, and the financialization of precious metals thus gains a new mass basis and cultural endorsement.

Shadows of Inflation and Market Turbulence: The Resurgence of Hedging Narratives

● Asset Migration in an Era of Volatility: At the beginning of 2026, global market volatility significantly increased, with intertwining geopolitical risks, fluctuating interest rate expectations, and growth doubts rendering reliance solely on rising stock markets fragile. India, as a representative of high growth, is also deeply rooted in the global risk network, and when external turbulence transmits to local valuations and exchange rates, the attractiveness of hedging assets is further amplified, prompting investors to reassess the thickness of the “defense layer” in their portfolios.

● Voices of Inflation Anxiety: Surrounding this release, some market opinions suggest that “this move may reflect an increased demand for inflation hedging tools in the Indian market.” This judgment still belongs to unverified public interpretations, but it highlights a junction between policy and sentiment: as uncertainty over currency purchasing power rises, regulators are willing to grant gold and silver more “institutional space” for institutions and residents to jointly build a more inflation-resistant asset pool.

● Dual Hedging Significance: Against a backdrop of high inflation expectations and currency depreciation worries, gold and silver present a “dual hedging” attribute for Indian residents and institutions. For households, precious metals continue to play a role in intergenerational inheritance and daily safety cushions; for institutions, they are natural tools to hedge against systematic risk in equities and currency risk. Now, these two demands are being “merged” through public fund channels, with gold no longer confined to jewelry stores and family safes but becoming a key component of asset allocation for fund managers.

Fund Managers' New Calculations: Finding Balance Between Growth and Hedging

● Embedding Gold Factors in Growth Narratives: From the perspective of institutional asset allocation, some actively managed stock funds do not wish to give up the valuation expansion and profit elasticity brought by the “Indian growth story,” but rather choose to introduce a certain weight of gold and silver within the same product to buffer short-term volatility impacts without sacrificing long-term growth exposure. This approach resembles adding insurance to a high Beta narrative; rather than turning to precious metals, it could be viewed as “overlaying a gold shell over the Indian bull market.”

● Reconstructing the Yield Curve: Increasing the allocation of gold and silver may have multiple impacts on the fund's yield curve. On one hand, precious metals often move against the trend and may even rally during times of heightened global risk, providing certain hedges during significant stock market pullbacks, thus reducing overall volatility and maximum drawdown depth; on the other hand, holding a portion of non-equity assets inevitably dilutes the elasticity of pure equity positions, potentially lagging behind aggressive products focused solely on stocks during a unidirectional bull market, thus increasing the “opportunity cost” of performance rankings.

● Internal Game and Style Differentiation: This creates a new competitive arena among fund managers. Some managers insist on pursuing excess returns, preferring to endure greater volatility to maintain high positions betting on growth; others prefer to obtain a smoother yield curve through precious metal allocations, placing more emphasis on drawdown control and risk-adjusted returns. Regulatory easing merely provides a toolbox; how much weight gold and silver hold in portfolios will become a long-standing point of divergence and competition under different styles and assessment systems.

How Funds Might Migrate: Linkages Between Households, Institutions, and Supply Chains

● Redistribution of Marginal Equity Funds: After regulatory approval, those “marginal funds” that were originally hesitant to fully enter stock funds may likely be redirected to mixed portfolios containing a certain weight of precious metals. For investors with moderate risk preferences who do not wish to completely abandon growth opportunities, actively managed stock funds with “higher gold content” become a new vehicle that balances return expectations with safekeeping, facilitating the redistribution and stratification of funds within the public fund system.

● Upgrading Household Asset Structures: From a longer-term perspective, the asset allocation of Indian households may shift from a focus on “single stocks or physical gold” to achieving a multi-layered structure of “coexisting stocks and gold” through public channels. Some gold demand will be met in the form of fund shares, while some stock exposure will reduce vulnerability through integrated precious metal weightings. For middle-class families, combinations of bank deposits, stock funds, precious metal funds, and insurance are likely to gradually become the mainstream template.

● The Double-Edged Effect of Supply Chains and Imports: The financialization at the funding level may also reflect upon the local gold and silver supply chains and import demands. On one hand, more convenient financial channels are expected to amplify overall demand and price fluctuations for precious metals, enhancing India's presence in global pricing; on the other hand, excessive financialization might amplify market sentiment and leverage effects, causing price volatility to feedback to jewelers, processing companies, and end consumers, forming a double-edged relationship between traditional industries and financial markets.

After the Gold Increase: The Next Chapter of India's Capital Markets

This regulatory easing reflects two intertwined main lines: one is the real concern over inflation, exchange rates, and market volatility, driving policies to open wider institutional channels for hedging assets; the other is a proactive embrace of the financialization of gold and silver, aiming to transform traditional cultural preferences into modern asset forms that can be managed, traded, and optimized in combination. From dowries to fund shares, gold is undergoing a quiet transformation in form.

Looking ahead, what truly determines the strength of this turn will be how the formal details and upper limits are implemented, as well as whether market sentiment continues to favor hedging assets over a single growth narrative in the coming years. If worries about volatility and inflation persist, the weight of gold and silver in Indian institutional assets may steadily rise; if a new growth bull market restarts, some funds may revert back to pure equity products, viewing precious metal allocations as “necessary yet limited” safety cushions. For global investors, the structural changes are of greater concern: as emerging market leaders like India open up larger institutional entrances for gold and silver, the global pricing power and narrative authority of hedging assets may be silently reshuffled.

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