Is extreme fear really the bottom? Main players fleeing + Options hammered + Death cross of moving averages, it's really not the bottom now!

Family, today we discuss the most heart-wrenching and critical question: Has the market become so fearful that this is the bottom?

I completely agree with everyone’s viewpoint, most friends in the live broadcast understand clearly — this is not the bottom at all, it's more like a continuation of the bear market.

We always say "when others are fearful, I am greedy," but now with the market clearly in extreme panic, no one dares to buy at the bottom. The real bottom is never shouted out, but when no one discusses the bottom, no one dares to buy at the bottom, and the market is completely silent, and people are still asking daily "is this the bottom," it shows we are far from the real bottom.

Following the previous logic, let’s speak with data and tell you why it’s absolutely not the bottom:

First, let’s look at the most authentic main capital data. This is the fund flow of Binance BTC spot during the Spring Festival; it’s not a contract virtual offering, it’s genuine capital!

The main players have net sold over 1.2 billion dollars during this period, with 4 instances of concentrated selling, each time the amount sold exceeded 160 million dollars, dense transactions, fierce selling, with a single maximum sell-off of 336 million dollars!

Especially during the wave on the 14th-15th, OG-level whales directly transferred coins to exchanges to hammer the market, matching exactly with the data.

Here’s a tip for identifying market trends: when you see large amounts of coins being transferred to exchanges on-chain, keep an eye on large market orders — hammering requires speed, and main players always hammer at market prices; currently, large investors in the North American and Asian markets are fleeing frantically.

Remember this: the real bottom is bought out by the main players, not held up by retail investors. Right now, main players are still frantically offloading, with absolutely no signals of a stop to the decline.

Next, let’s look at the limit order data. The largest recent limit buy order is only 11.72 million, with no signs of large capital picking up. Previously, in 2024-2025 for BNB, the price adjusted, but the chip peak kept rising, which was a signal for accumulation; now BTC has no such signs at all.

Now let’s observe the selling pressure in the options market:

The most crowded price point is 60,000 dollars, with 1.28 billion dollars of put options waiting to be exercised; at the 50,000 dollar mark, there are over 1 billion dollars of put options betting.

Additionally, the key point is that this Friday, there are 464 million, and next Friday, there are 338 million dollars of put options maturing!

The market prediction data is even more straightforward: the probability of the strike price on Friday being above 65,000 is only fifty-fifty, while the probability of being above 66,000 is merely 35%. This indicates that smart money has already bet real capital, expecting the price to drop to the range of 58,000-60,000 dollars, or even lower.

Finally, let’s look at the long-term technical indicators, all signals point downward:

The daily MA200 has crossed below the MA365, the 3-day line has fallen below the annual line of the 45-day line, and the MACD has also crossed downward at a high level. Multiple cyclical indicators are simultaneously indicating: the trend is thoroughly downward!

Of course, prices won’t keep falling; there will be normal rebounds and adjustments along the way. Recently, focus can be placed on the 57,700~70,840 chip range, particularly the 57,700 critical position, for three reasons:

First, this price level combines with the weekly MA200 (around 58,500) to create double strong support;

Second, this is the lower edge of the chip range; below is a chip vacuum area; once it breaks, the downward movement is highly probable to accelerate;

Third, it resonates with the Fibonacci 61.8% support level we discussed earlier.

Finally, I would like to remind you again: the above content does not constitute any investment advice, the market is always right, and my judgments may also be wrong; the final investment decisions must be made through your rational assessment!

The investment journey is long; always prioritize rationality and risk control!

Join our community, let’s discuss together, and become stronger together!

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