The flaw with this logic is simple...

Let me explain (this is worth your time).

When you think that Bitcoin is going to $1M, then any price under $1M is a "sale".

But Bitcoin fell -50% from the highs.

So it's twice a discount as before.

With an asset like BTC, it's important to use the vol and downside to your favor, but that requires timely DCA's and the ability to accept the environment that we ARE in rather than the environment that we WANT to be in.

I think BTC is going to $1M (and higher) in the long run.

Of course, there is a risk that I'm wrong.

But, based on that expectation, I need to be based in facts, recognize that Bitcoin has long and lengthy drawdowns, and use those drawdowns as much as possible to my advantage.

If I don't accept that we're in a drawdown, like many bulls and "bottom is in" callers have done over the past ~3 months, then how can I take advantage of it?

The first step to solving a problem is defining the problem, which inherently requires the acceptance that a problem exists.

That's why I've been voicing such strong conviction that we're in a new bear market since $97k in mid-November.

I recognized when we were in a bull market.

I thought it would last longer.

I thought that price would go higher.

But it didn't.

That's why invalidation criteria are so important.

Successful investing requires objectivity and adaptability.

That demands the ability to accept things we don't want in the short term, confront them, and optimize around them until those short-term dynamics cease to exist.

Bitcoin will enter another bull market.

It's an asset that I own a lot of and expect to own for a long time.

Yes, a sale is a sale.

But sales can persist.

Are you going to buy your favorite shoes when they are -15% off if you know from the owner of the store that they're getting ready to mark them down by another -30% and discontinue them forever?

No.

You wait.

Maybe you buy one pair, just in case your size sells out, expecting to buy 3-4 more when the next markdown comes.

That's why I bought $67.2k recently, my first purchase since I sold a sizable portion of my stack at $97k.

That's why I'm getting ready to buy again.

That's why I wrote the Bear Market Playbook.

I created a variety of plans, explained them clearly, and allowed investors to choose the best option for them.

I've continued to follow up on that report, which I published in November, and will provide updates on the strategy as the signals that I shared flash.

A few already have.

More probably will.

As more flash, I'll accumulate larger amounts.

Lock in.

Good luck.

Embrace nuance.

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