Today's homework is slightly easier. The stone of tariffs has finally landed; as for whether it has crushed his own foot, it's still unknown. However, from Trump's angry remarks, it can be inferred that his personal reputation and the Republican Party have suffered a bit. As Trump's most significant achievement since his second presidential election, this has been ruled illegal, and the midterm elections are likely not friendly for the Republicans.

Although Trump's IEEPA tariffs have been ruled illegal by the Supreme Court, the Trump administration can still cite other laws to uphold tariffs. Of course, the restrictions of these laws are definitely much greater than those of IEEPA, as both the timeframe and scope will be narrowed. This is a headache for Trump, but it is indeed a good thing for the risk markets. While there will be some fluctuations in the short term, in the long run, this will help lower inflation and reduce some uncertainties.

At least tariffs are difficult to weaponize now, and the Federal Reserve will also use tariffs as a means to maintain interest rates. The second half of 2026 should be a bit better. However, the slightly troublesome issue of whether there will be refunds after tariffs are declared illegal is also a very troublesome question. It is estimated that there may not be results in the short term; let's just wait and see. Additionally, the geopolitical conflict between the United States and Iran also needs attention.

Looking back at the Bitcoin data, the turnover rate has not changed significantly, indicating that so far the cancellation of Trump's tariffs has not caused much of a ripple in the cryptocurrency market. However, it is important to note that Trump often likes to stir things up on weekends, and the weekend is coming up again. Before the market closes, Trump mentioned preparing to impose a 10% tax on the world based on the existing tariffs within five months. Currently, it seems to have little impact, hopefully, nothing strange will occur.

After the tariff situation settled, the ongoing game involves the geopolitical conflict between the U.S. and Iran, and also the main narrative from the first half of the year: Trump and the Federal Reserve. However, after the tariffs are canceled, the pressure on the Federal Reserve has also eased a lot, perhaps allowing for some new gains.

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