【Qinglan's Review】Bitcoin Multi-Cycle + News Analysis, Trading Thoughts Explained

1. Technical Analysis: Key Points to Watch in Multi-Cycle Breakdown
   Qinglan knows that many friends find it chaotic when looking at cycles. Today, we won't pile on professional jargon; instead, we'll break down the 15-minute, 1-hour, 4-hour, and daily charts clearly, so that beginners can understand and veterans can grasp the key points— the core is to look for "multi-cycle resonance" and find the key levels for long and short signals.

(A) Short-Term Cycle (15 minutes/1 hour): Choppy Market, Weak Breakthrough

First, let's look at the short term. The 15-minute chart is quite intuitive: after a price surge near 70,000 last night, it has been oscillating in the small range of 69,000-69,500 without any clear direction. Looking at the MACD, it is flat above the zero line, and the red bars are getting shorter, which is quite obvious— the momentum for a short-term upward move is lacking, and the rebound is a bit weak.

The 1-hour chart is similar; the price has been pressed down by the MA20 (around 69,300), unable to break through. The RSI is floating around 50, indicating a temporary balance between bulls and bears, with neither side gaining an advantage. Qinglan honestly tells everyone that the short-term pattern is choppy; it can't go up or down, so let's not rush to act and wait for new forces to break this balance.

(B) Mid-Term Cycle (4 hours): Oversold Rebound, Key Resistance to Watch Closely

The logic of the 4-hour chart is much clearer. The price has violently rebounded from just above 60,000 and is now trying to stabilize in the key area of 69,000-70,000. Some friends may ask if the rebound can be sustained. Let's look at the MACD: the fast and slow lines are still deep below the zero line, but the green bars have been continuously increasing, which is a rebound signal after a bottom divergence, indicating that the short-term rebound is valid, but the strength is still insufficient.

There are two resistance levels that Qinglan asks everyone to remember: one is the technical resistance at MA20 (around 68,700), and the other is the psychological level of 70,000— this is a consolidation platform from the previous decline, where selling pressure is relatively concentrated. Therefore, we can define the mid-term as a "weak rebound after overselling." Whether it can turn strong depends on whether it can steadily break through the 70,000 level; if it can't, the rebound may falter midway.

(C) Long-Term Cycle (Daily): Bearish Trend Unchanged, Just a Temporary Breather

We need to view the daily chart rationally; to be honest, it’s a bit concerning. The price has fallen below all major moving averages (MA5, MA10, MA20), forming a standard bearish arrangement, indicating that the long-term downtrend has not changed. After the MACD crossed below the zero line, the gap is still large, and the green bars are long, which means the momentum for long-term decline remains strong; don’t expect an immediate reversal.

But there is good news: the RSI has dropped to around 31, entering the oversold area, and the price is slowly approaching the 200-week moving average (around 58,000), which is considered a "iron bottom." So Qinglan tells everyone that although the long-term trend is bearish, it has now entered a sensitive area, and there may be a technical rebound, but overselling does not mean reversal; we must be vigilant— after the rebound, there is still a risk of further decline, so don’t blindly try to catch the bottom.

(D) Key Price Levels Summary: Core Area of Long and Short Battle, Remember to Avoid Pitfalls

• Upper Resistance: Short-term focus on 69,500-70,000 (which is the 1-hour MA20 resistance + the psychological level of 70,000); mid-term strong resistance at 71,000-72,000, where there was a previous dense trading area, and selling pressure will be relatively large.

• Lower Support: Short-term first look at 68,500-68,800 (the lower edge of the recent oscillation range, with relatively stable support); mid-term strong support is at 67,500 (near the previous low, breaking it will affect sentiment); long-term support is at 58,000 (200-week moving average, considered a long-term watershed).

1. News Analysis: A Tale of Two Extremes, Whale Movements are Key

Today's news is particularly interesting. Qinglan summarizes it in one sentence: Panic and greed are mixed together, and whales and retail investors are in a tug-of-war. Let’s get straight to the point and focus on these four key points:

(A) Market Sentiment: Extreme Panic May Signal a Turning Point

Bitcoin's social sentiment has hit a nearly four-year low, which indicates what? It shows that market panic has reached its peak. Qinglan has mentioned many times that extreme panic is often a contrarian indicator— when everyone is afraid, the short-term selling pressure is likely to be nearly exhausted, and the probability of a phase rebound will gradually increase. But let’s not be careless; sentiment recovery will not happen overnight and may oscillate repeatedly.

(B) Whale Movements: Frequent Rebalancing, Huge Discrepancy at This Price Level

This is the most critical point today. Whales have been particularly active recently, and it's clear to the discerning eye that there is a huge discrepancy at this price level. On one hand, BTC OG whales and addresses related to Yili Hua have been transferring large amounts of Bitcoin and stablecoins, with single transactions reaching hundreds of millions of dollars, looking like they are rebalancing or preparing to catch the bottom; on the other hand, new addresses have withdrawn over 15,000 BTC from Binance, worth over 100 million dollars, indicating that while some are entering the market, others are exiting.

Qinglan reminds everyone that whales do not move without reason. Their frequent rebalancing indicates that this price level is a key area for the long-short battle, and the upcoming market trend will largely be driven by whale funds, so we must closely monitor fund movements and not blindly follow the crowd.

(C) Macroeconomic and Regulatory Factors: Uncertainty Remains, but There is Long-Term Warmth

On the macro front, there are two key data points to watch next week— non-farm payrolls and CPI. These two data points will directly affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The macro market is unstable, and cryptocurrencies will also be affected, so we should prepare psychologically for potential short-term fluctuations.

On the regulatory front, there are two good pieces of news: Illinois plans to build a Bitcoin reserve, and the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission is exploring ways to enhance liquidity in the cryptocurrency market. These are long-term policy positives for the entire market. However, we must also be clear that the uncertainty of global cryptocurrency regulation has not been eliminated, and we need to continue monitoring.

(D) On-Chain Fundamentals: Mining Difficulty Decreases, Short-Term Selling Pressure Will Ease

There is a change in on-chain data that everyone can pay attention to: Bitcoin's mining difficulty has seen the largest drop since 2021, and the overall network has also decreased. What does this mean? On one hand, the pressure for miners to sell coins for cash will ease in the short term, providing some support for short-term prices; on the other hand, it also indicates that the current activity in the Bitcoin network is declining, and the long-term ecological activity still needs to be observed for a while.

3. Comprehensive Prediction + Trading Thoughts: Different Traders, Different Strategies

Combining technical and news analysis, Qinglan gives everyone a clear prediction, without ambiguity: the market is currently at an "emotional freezing point" after a sharp decline, gradually transitioning to "technical recovery." The short-term is likely still choppy, the mid-term direction will depend on key level breakthroughs, and the long-term bearish trend remains unchanged, so caution is essential.

The most important trading thoughts are divided into short-term and mid-to-long-term strategies, clearly explained for everyone to adapt based on their own situation. The core principles are three: light positions, stop-loss, and follow the trend; don’t be greedy, and don’t take chances.

(A) Short-Term Traders (15 minutes/1 hour): Sell High, Buy Low, Quick In and Out

The core of short-term trading is "making money from oscillations," relying on the core range of 68,500-69,500, selling high and buying low, and not getting attached to positions.

• Long Entry Timing: When the price drops to the support level of 68,500-68,800, and the MACD red bars are expanding, and the RSI exits the oversold area, showing stabilization signals, then lightly test long positions, with a stop-loss set below 68,000 (if it effectively breaks down, exit decisively, don’t hold the position), targeting 69,500-70,000.

• Short Entry Timing: When the price rebounds to the resistance level of 69,500-70,000, and the MACD green bars are expanding, and the RSI approaches the overbought area, showing exhaustion signals, then lightly test short positions, with a stop-loss set above 70,000, targeting 68,500-68,800.

• Qinglan reminds again: for short-term trading, definitely keep positions light, don’t bet heavily on direction, quick in and out, take profits when you earn, cut losses when you lose, and don’t hold onto the thought of "waiting for a rebound"; in a choppy market, getting attached will only lead to greater losses.

(B) Mid-to-Long-Term Traders (4 hours/Daily): Gradual Positioning, Avoid Catching the Bottom

For mid-to-long-term friends, the focus is on "waiting for the turning point," don’t be swayed by short-term oscillations, and don’t think about fully catching the bottom; the risk is too high.

• Current Position: At this price, it is absolutely not suitable for an all-in catch-the-bottom strategy; you can only build an observation position first. The core logic is "this is just an oversold rebound, not a trend reversal," and you must wait for clear bottom signals before gradually increasing positions.

• Positioning Timing: If the price revisits the strong support at 67,500, or falls below 67,000, we can build positions in batches, adding a small position every 500-1,000 dollars drop, averaging down costs, and the total position should not exceed 10%-15% of your capital; don’t put all your eggs in one basket.

• Heavy Position Timing: Wait for two signals; meeting either one can consider increasing the position: one is a clear bottom pattern appearing on the daily chart, such as a double bottom or head and shoulders bottom, with increased trading volume; the other is an effective breakthrough of the mid-term strong resistance at 71,000-72,000, and stabilizing above the MA20 moving average, alleviating the bearish arrangement.

• Important Notes: For mid-to-long-term trading, ignore short-term oscillations, strictly set stop-losses, which can be set below 67,500 or above the key support level of 58,000; don’t exit due to short-term fluctuations, and don’t forget to track macro policies and on-chain data to adjust strategies in a timely manner.

1. Qinglan's Final Thoughts: Patience and Discipline are More Important than Anything

Finally, Qinglan wants to share a few heartfelt words. The current Bitcoin market is at a critical stage of multi-cycle battles and intertwined news, characterized by short-term oscillations, mid-term directionlessness, and long-term bearish dominance. Market sentiment has reached extreme panic, and whales are frequently rebalancing; whether the key level of 69,000-70,000 breaks will directly determine the mid-term market trend.

Many friends are anxious now, either fearing missing out or being trapped, but it’s actually unnecessary. Markets are born in despair, move forward in hesitation, and end in frenzy. We are currently in the gap between "despair" and "hesitation," and what we need most is not the courage to go all-in, but patience and discipline.

For short-term trading, don’t be greedy, quick in and out; for mid-to-long-term trading, don’t be impatient, slowly wait for the turning point, abandon the lucky mindset of "going all-in to catch the bottom," adhere to trading discipline, and respect market trends to sustain in this market for the long haul.

Qinglan will continue to track multi-cycle technical patterns, whale fund movements, and macro data. Any changes will be reviewed with everyone at the first opportunity, and we will respond flexibly and earn steadily together~
For more quantitative breakdowns of the impact of real-time news on market sentiment, updates are available in my Qinglan Crypto Classroom, www.qinglan.org

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