Author: Blockchain Knight

CryptoQuant's research director and institutions like Bitwise claim that Bitcoin has entered a bear market, which may last until the third quarter of 2026.

According to the SEC's definition, Bitcoin has dropped from its peak of $126,000 in October 2025 to $74,000 on February 3, marking a decline of 41%, far exceeding the normal market threshold of a 20% drop.

However, determining a bear market in the crypto space requires considering three key indicators: price, positions, and liquidity. Bitcoin is currently below the 200-day and 365-day moving averages, and CryptoQuant's bull market score is only 20 points.

The options market is leaning towards bearish hedging, with ETFs experiencing a net outflow of $440 million so far this year. Whales have sold approximately $29 billion worth of Bitcoin since October last year, all of which align with bear market characteristics.

The most significant feature of the current bear market is the disconnect between institutional perception and action. 26% of institutions believe we are in a bear market (an increase of 24 percentage points from before), yet 62% have held or increased their long positions since October, and 70% believe Bitcoin is undervalued.

Today, "bear market" no longer equates to capitulation selling; it is more about the understanding of market dynamics, with the core being that institutions maintain structural exposure while effectively hedging risks.

The end of the bear market requires meeting three triggering conditions: Bitcoin must return to and stabilize above the long-term moving average, capital flows from ETFs and other sources must turn positive, and the demand for hedging in the options market must decrease while leverage rises.

Analysts present three scenarios:

1. A classic winter, with Moreno predicting it will last until mid-2026, where Bitcoin could drop to $56,000;
2. A short-term oscillating bear market, with CoinShares believing conditions will improve in 3-6 months after whale selling ends and the market warms up;
3. A liquidity-driven bear market, with the end timing depending on the recovery of demand and liquidity, unrelated to the halving cycle.

Although the current bear market decline (41%) is less than the historical crypto winter's drop of over 70%, potential retracement could reach 50% (to $55,000-$60,000), still qualifying as a standard bear market.

The market shows a K-shaped divergence, with Bitcoin holding a structural advantage while other cryptocurrencies perform weakly. More critically, institutions like VanEck and K33 confirm that the decade-long four-year cycle dominating Bitcoin has become ineffective, replaced by macro indicators such as liquidity, real yields, and stablecoin liquidity.

This suggests that the bear market may last longer but with smaller declines, as institutional funds will play a supporting role, preventing the long-term capitulation declines seen in the past.

The timing of the end of this Bitcoin bear market does not depend on the halving but rather on the turning points of demand and liquidity.

Before that, the market's upside potential is limited, and the paradox of institutions being "bearish but increasing holdings" will become a core feature of the bear market in 2026.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。