Bitcoin is now down ~40% from its all-time high.

The question is whether this is the start of something structural or a correction within a broader macro regime that remains intact.

Our market strategist @scotttfreeman volatility framework offers a useful lens.

When implied volatility trades significantly below its fundamental fair value while Bitcoin sits at ATH, history suggests a drawdown follows.

But historically, the severity has largely depended on the state of Leading Economic Indicators (LEIs).

When LEIs were deteriorating (Apr-21, Nov-21), drawdowns were severe, ranging from -52% to -77%, with recovery timelines of 191 to 847 days.

When LEIs were healthy (Dec-24, Jul-25, Aug-25), drawdowns were shallow, ranging from -6% to -28%, with new highs reached within 33 to 168 days.

The current vol sell signal triggered in late October. This drawdown has now exceeded the historical range for healthy LEI periods, but remains short of the drawdowns seen when LEIs were deteriorating.

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