🎢 Event Review

On the evening of January 31, 2026, the ETH market experienced a severe price fluctuation. Within just a few minutes, the price broke through the $2600 mark, followed by a series of pessimistic news leading to continuous liquidations. Long positions in the market faced a chain reaction of liquidations due to leverage effects, with some whale accounts turning from significant profits to heavy losses in an instant, triggering a panic chain reaction. Meanwhile, the overall cryptocurrency market was under downward pressure amid macro policy uncertainty, geopolitical tensions, and liquidity exhaustion, causing ETH prices to repeatedly test key support levels, further weakening investor sentiment.

🕒 Timeline

• 22:14 – News broke that "ETH has fallen below the $2600 mark," indicating that the support level was being tested.
• 22:15 – ETH price experienced sharp fluctuations:
• A set of data showed that within 12 minutes, the price plummeted from $2612 to $2555 (a drop of 2.16%);
• Another data point indicated that from 22:15 to 22:32, the price fell from $2532 to $2508 (a drop of about 0.96%).
• 22:19 – Continuous liquidations of long positions occurred, with the well-known whale address 0x9ee's ETH long position completely liquidated, resulting in a cumulative loss of over $61.38 million.
• 22:20 – An institutional-level holding crisis emerged, with Trend Research revealing that its holding of 651,300 ETH had an unrealized loss of $378 million.
• 22:28-22:29 – Partial liquidation of the "1011 insider whale": holdings reduced to about 198,000 ETH, followed by a further reduction of 25,000 ETH, with cumulative losses and unrealized loss data showing a deteriorating trend.
• 22:36 – The "Bitcoin OG insider whale" partially stopped losses, with its ETH long position turning from a previous profit of $142 million to a loss of $67 million, still holding about 188,000 ETH.
• 22:55 – Latest data showed that the ETH price stabilized at around $2537.26, indicating that the market showed signs of halting the decline after the severe fluctuations.

🔍 Cause Analysis

The recent ETH crash was mainly influenced by multiple factors:

1. Macroeconomic Policy and Geopolitical Risks

• Internal disputes within U.S. government departments, funding issues, and personnel adjustments at the Federal Reserve led to uncertainty in monetary policy, causing risk-averse sentiment to spread rapidly.
• The instability of the international situation, such as the explosion at an Iranian port, heightened global market concerns about high-risk assets, leading to a rapid withdrawal of funds from risk assets.

1. High Leverage Positions and Liquidity Crisis

• A large number of leveraged positions in the market were triggered for liquidation under low liquidity conditions, creating a vicious chain reaction.
• Some well-known institutions and large holders liquidated their positions due to forced stop-losses, further exacerbating market selling pressure and causing prices to decline rapidly.

💻 Technical Analysis

This technical analysis is based on the 45-minute candlestick data of ETH/USDT perpetual contracts on Binance, showing clear bearish signals and signs of overselling:

• Price Position and Bollinger Bands

• ETH price is moving along the lower Bollinger Band, showing an overall weak trend;

• Market trading volume surged by 609.06%, indicating panic selling pressure.

• Indicator Divergence and Moving Averages

• The KDJ indicator showed significant divergence, with selling momentum increasing;

• OBV (On-Balance Volume) fell below previous lows, confirming that large holders' selling pressure remained strong;

• The price broke below MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50, and EMA5/10/20/50/120, with all moving averages showing a bearish arrangement.

• Overselling and Reversal Signals

• RSI is in the oversold area, suggesting a potential for short-term rebounds;

• At the same time, a bullish Setup (9) has formed in the TD Sequential indicator, indicating that the market may show signs of a phase reversal, but caution is still needed.

🚀 Market Outlook

In the context of ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty, political risks, and the triggering of liquidation effects due to high leverage positions, ETH may continue to face downward pressure in the short term. Although the technical indicators of overselling and some reversal structures provide opportunities for short-term rebounds, the overall downward trend and large liquidation news indicate that market sentiment remains cautious.

Investors should closely monitor the following aspects:

• Direction of Macroeconomic Policy: If the U.S. and major global economies can provide clear policy guidance, it will help stabilize market sentiment;
• Liquidity Improvement: As trading volumes return to normal, panic selling pressure is expected to weaken;
• Technical Support: If prices can stabilize near key moving averages and form effective rebounds, it may open up local buying opportunities;
• Risk Management: In this volatile market, maintaining reasonable positions and strict stop-loss strategies will be key.

In summary, ETH has experienced significant volatility recently, and market confidence has been severely impacted. For medium to short-term investors, it is essential to be wary of potential downside risks while also paying attention to buying opportunities presented by technical overselling signals. Rational operations and effective risk control may help find a glimmer of hope amid this crash storm.

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