Event Review 📉
Starting at 9:30 today, the price of ETH experienced severe fluctuations in a very short time. Due to a series of administrative measures, tariff threats from the U.S., and ongoing expectations regarding the change in the Federal Reserve chair, market risk aversion surged. At the same time, a large number of high-leverage positions on-chain triggered liquidations, leading to a sharp decrease in liquidity. Institutional whales were forced to close their positions, with even "Big Brother" having their ETH long positions forcibly liquidated, amounting to several million dollars. These events collectively suppressed the price of ETH, creating a chain reaction that further dampened market sentiment.
Timeline ⏰
- 09:30: ETH prices began to fluctuate violently, opening at around $2807. Macroeconomic policy news triggered risk aversion, showing signs of capital withdrawal from risk assets.
- 09:30–09:40: Within 11 minutes, the price of ETH plummeted from about $2799 to around $2673, a drop of nearly 4.5%~4.79%. During this period, a large number of leveraged long positions were triggered for liquidation, further amplifying liquidity risks.
- 09:43: Market observations showed that the ETH/USDT quote on the OKX platform was about $2696.94, with continued occurrences of long position liquidations.
- 09:45: Some well-known institutions and whale positions faced forced liquidations, with "Big Brother" having their ETH long positions liquidated for about $5.14 million, confirming the impact of spreading leverage risks.
- 11:10: After a period of panic selling, the price of ETH rebounded slightly, with the latest quote around $2743.09, but overall market sentiment remained extremely uncertain.
Reason Analysis 🔎
The recent severe fluctuations in ETH were primarily driven by the following two factors:
- Macroeconomic and Policy Turmoil
- A series of administrative measures and tariff threats from Trump, including the declaration of a national emergency, increased market concerns about economic prospects and monetary policy uncertainty.
- The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and expectations regarding the change in the Fed chair confused the market about the future direction of monetary policy, prompting investors to turn to safe-haven assets.
- Leverage Position Risk Exposure
- On-chain data showed that several institutions and whale accounts were using high leverage trading at critical price levels, leading to frequent liquidation events. A large number of long and short positions triggered forced liquidations, causing a rapid decline in market liquidity.
- Programmatic trading and stop-loss strategies triggered in succession, exacerbating the price crash and further intensifying market panic.
Technical Analysis 📊
Based on Binance's USDT perpetual contract ETH/USDT 45-minute candlestick data, we conducted an in-depth technical analysis:
Price and Moving Average Trends
The price is currently running along the lower Bollinger Band, showing a clear weak trend.
From the MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50 moving averages, the price is below all moving averages, which are in a bearish arrangement, indicating strong downward pressure.
EMA System
EMA5, EMA10, EMA20, EMA50, and EMA120 are all in an overall downward channel and are neatly arranged, indicating a super strong downward trend in the short, medium, and long term. Among them, the slope of EMA20 is -1.14%, EMA24 is -1.08%, and EMA52 is -0.76%, showing strong downward momentum.
Indicator Situation
The KDJ indicator is diverging, with increased downward trend strength.
The RSI is currently in the oversold area, suggesting a potential short-term rebound, but the overall trend remains weak.
Volume Performance
Recent trading volume has decreased by 43.41%, indicating a significant reduction in market activity; however, the 20-day average trading volume has increased by 23.63%, reflecting a slight improvement in mid-term trading activity, but overall, both bulls and bears remain weak.
Liquidations and Net Outflows
In the past hour, the total amount of liquidations across the network was about $2 million, with longs and shorts each accounting for about 50%, while the net outflow of major players reached $10 million, further reflecting the tight market liquidity and the phenomenon of capital retreating from risk assets.
Market Outlook 🔮
The uncertainty in the market remains high:
Sentiment and Policy Trends
If macroeconomic policies further deteriorate, or if U.S. administrative measures continue to send negative signals, risk aversion may escalate further, leading to continued downward pressure on ETH, with a high probability of breaking below the $80,000 support range.
Conversely, if positive signals emerge from the policy front and liquidity risks are alleviated, the RSI being in the oversold area may prompt a short-term rebound, but the magnitude and sustainability of the rebound still require caution.
Technical Outlook
Current technical indicators show strong bearish signals, with moving averages firmly declining, necessitating attention to key support levels (such as the $80,000 range). If the price successfully holds this support, there may be opportunities for a short-term rebound, but risks cannot be ignored.
Operational Suggestions
For investors, it is advisable to remain cautious, control positions, and set stop-loss orders in a timely manner to avoid being passively chased by leverage risks. At the same time, pay attention to macroeconomic policies and market capital flow trends, waiting for market sentiment to warm up before making any moves.
Overall, ETH is currently in a period of severe fluctuations intertwined with policy storms and high leverage risks. The next direction of the market will depend on whether the uncertainty of macroeconomic policies further intensifies and whether on-chain leverage positions continue to be liquidated. Investors need to closely monitor market dynamics, take precautions against risks, and make rational decisions.
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