Qinglan Crypto Class is starting! BTC's four cycles + dual perspective on news, guiding you to step in sync with the crypto market rhythm.
- Overall Trend Judgment
Long-term trend (daily chart): From the daily chart, our MA moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, MA5 < MA10 < MA20, and the price is also below these moving averages. The MACD DIF line has crossed below the DEA line, and the negative histogram is still expanding, while the RSI is in the mid-low range and continues to decline. What does this indicate? Well, in the long term, BTC is in a phase of downward adjustment, and the previous upward momentum has been significantly impacted. On the news front, although South Dakota plans to invest in Bitcoin and institutions continue to accumulate, which are long-term positives, voices like Dalio's macro pessimistic warnings and well-known investors being bearish on crypto have also cast a shadow over the long-term trend, as the market digests the previous high-risk levels. Mid-term trend (4-hour chart): However, on the mid-term 4-hour chart, we see a relatively positive signal! The MA moving averages have formed a bullish arrangement, MA5 > MA10 > MA20, and the MACD DIF line has crossed above the DEA line, with the red histogram also quite large. The RSI is also recovering from a low position. This indicates that in the mid-term, after a previous deep correction, BTC is making efforts to rebound! On the news front, the return of Ethereum ETF funds, Tether launching compliant stablecoins, and several banks laying out Bitcoin services are all providing support for this mid-term rebound in terms of funding and confidence. Short-term trend (1-hour and 15-minute charts): Looking back at our short-term 1-hour and 15-minute charts, the situation is a bit more complex. On the 1-hour chart, although MA5 has crossed below MA10, the overall moving averages (MA5, MA10 > MA20) are still in a bullish arrangement, the MACD red histogram is shortening, and the RSI is also declining, indicating that short-term bullish momentum has weakened, entering a consolidation adjustment. On the 15-minute chart, it is even more evident, as the MA moving averages are starting to form a bearish arrangement, the MACD DIF line has crossed below the DEA line, the green histogram is expanding, and the RSI is continuously declining. This indicates that in the ultra-short term, BTC is showing a bearish trend with consolidation pressure. The news also confirms this, as Qinglan's morning report mentioned that BTC has lost the 89k level, with 90,000 USD being a key resistance, and the "shooting star" candlestick warning suggests that we should not rush to chase highs in the short term.
- Key Support and Resistance Levels
Strong resistance level: Based on technical analysis and news, our 90,000 USD is a very critical psychological level and technical resistance. The MA20 on the 1-hour chart is around 88,500, and the MA20 on the mid-term 4-hour chart is around 88,193. In the short term, 89,600 USD is also an important pressure level; if it cannot break through, the possibility of a pullback increases. If it pushes upward, above the 90,000 level, we need to closely monitor the MA10 (around 89,216) and MA20 (around 91,397) on the daily chart, as these are strong resistances. Strong support level: In the short term, 88,500 USD is a support level to watch. If this level cannot hold, the next support may be around 88,000 USD, which is also near the MA20 on the 1-hour chart. Further down, we need to look at the MA10 (around 88,528) and MA20 (around 88,193) on the 4-hour chart. Looking further, there is also previous low support around 86,000 USD on the daily chart, which will be a strong psychological defense line that should not be easily broken.
- Possible Reversal Patterns
In the short term: On the 15-minute and 1-hour charts, due to the weakening bullish momentum, we need to be cautious of the risk of forming an M-top (double top) or head and shoulders, especially if the 89,600-90,000 USD area fails to break through after prolonged attempts; if it quickly breaks below the support level, we really need to be careful. In the mid-term: The 4-hour chart is currently in an upward trend, but the red histogram has been shortening after the MACD golden cross; if the DIF line crosses below the DEA line again to form a dead cross, we need to be wary of a deeper pullback, which may even lead to a consolidation platform before choosing a direction. In the long term: The daily chart is already in a downward adjustment; if the support around 86,000 USD can hold firm, and combined with more positive news stimuli, we may be able to form a W-bottom (double bottom) pattern or establish a larger range consolidation bottom.
- Summary of Our Trading Thoughts
In summary, BTC is currently in a complex situation of long-term bearishness but mid-term rebound, and short-term bearish consolidation. Do not rush to chase highs! 90,000 USD is a very important level, and both news and technical indicators suggest that there is strong resistance at this level. Short-term operations should be cautious: If you are a short-term trader, the current 15-minute and 1-hour charts show weakened bullish momentum, and there are even signs of a pullback; you might consider trying to short near 89,600-90,000 USD with a light position, targeting 88,500, 88,000, or even lower. But remember to set strict stop-losses, as the mid-term rebound momentum is still present. Medium to long-term positioning should wait for opportunities: For medium to long-term investors, now is not a good time to chase highs. We can patiently wait; if the price can effectively break through 90,000 USD and stabilize, or pull back to the 87,000-88,000 USD support range and show clear signs of stopping the decline, combined with the release of positive news, that would be a good opportunity for us to position ourselves at lower levels or follow up after confirming the breakout. Pay attention to the macro environment: The weakening of the US dollar index and the rise in gold prices are long-term positives for Bitcoin, but in the short term, this rotation of funds may cause volatility in cryptocurrencies. Trump's Federal Reserve chair nominee and the FOMC meeting may bring policy uncertainty, so we need to remain vigilant.
In conclusion, we are currently in a phase of intense competition between bulls and bears. What we need to do is stay calm, control our actions, observe more and act less near key positions, and wait for the market to provide clearer directional signals or for more cost-effective entry opportunities.
For more quantitative breakdowns of how real-time news affects market sentiment, it has been updated in my Qinglan Crypto Class, www.qinglan.org
Finally, Qinglan sends everyone a trading quote: The market is an amplifier of human nature; patience and discipline are the tickets to navigate through bull and bear markets.
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