Original Author: Pickle Cat (X: @0xPickleCati)
I bought my first Bitcoin in 2013.
As an old veteran who has lived through several cycles until 2026, I have seen this market bring people to life and death in countless ways.
I have found that over this long period, there seems to be an undeniable iron law:
That is, in this circle, the definition of "winning" is never about how much money you made.
Everyone who has touched this circle has at least made money once, no matter how inexperienced they are or how small their capital is; they can become a temporary "genius."
So what is "winning"? It is about making money and being able to keep that money years later.
In other words, if you want to change your fate through the crypto world, you must first realize that this is not a competition of "who makes the most" or "who doubles their money the fastest," but rather a competition of "who can survive until the end."
But the reality is harsh; most "geniuses" become fuel, and only a small portion of people can successfully survive to the next cycle. Among these survivors, those who can truly achieve compound growth are even rarer.
After October 11, market sentiment returned to a familiar dull period for me.
That day, I lost many friends whom I thought would fight alongside me in the crypto world for many years. Although this "farewell" has played out countless times, I still instinctively open up some reflections I have written intermittently over the years.
I think it's time to organize my thoughts. To clarify that ultimate question: What is it, and are there any replicable traits that can help one survive in the crypto world?
To this end, I also spoke with a few old friends who are still active in the crypto space, and thus, this article was born.
This article is my exclusive insight, a labor of love, and it will attempt to explain the following points:
- Why can some people survive in this cyclical "sea of blood," while others can only return empty-handed?
- How can one maintain hope even when tortured by a bear market?
- What should you do to become the kind of person described above?
To thoroughly understand this principle, we must first return to basics; please forget everything others have told you about this circle.
“The only true wisdom is in knowing you know nothing.”
— Socrates
The article will briefly explain the history of the crypto world and its essence, as most new entrants tend to overlook these elements. After all, understanding this is not as immediately gratifying (or painful) as making (losing) money.
But from my personal experience, it is precisely these overlooked aspects that serve as the secret to being unafraid of bull and bear markets, just as philosopher George Santayana said: "Those who do not remember the past are condemned to repeat it."
In this article, I will help you understand:
I. What exactly can make the crypto market bullish again, and how to distinguish between "market activation" vs "temporary revival"? This includes three case studies and a basic "judgment criteria" you can directly use.
II. What should you do to increase your chances of catching "the next big trend"?
III. What common replicable traits do those who can cross multiple cycles of bloodshed and continue to make money possess?
If you have ever let your wallet be "decentralized" in the crypto world, this article is written for you. 
I. The True Driving Force Behind the Crypto Market Breaking Free from Stagnation
Whenever people ask why the crypto market is stagnant, the answers are almost always the same:
A new narrative hasn't emerged!
Institutions haven't fully entered the market!
The technological revolution hasn't exploded!
It's all the fault of those market makers and KOLs!
It's because certain exchanges/projects/companies messed up!
These factors are indeed important, but solving them has never been the real reason to end the crypto winter.
If you have experienced enough bull and bear markets, you will see a clear pattern:
The resurgence of the crypto market has never been because it has become more like traditional systems, but because it reminds people of the suffocating aspects of the old system.
The stagnation of crypto is not due to a lack of innovation, nor is it merely a liquidity issue.
At its core, it is collaboration failure—more precisely, stagnation occurs when the following three factors fail simultaneously:
- Capital is completely disinterested
- Sentiment is exhausted
- Current consensus can no longer explain "why we should care about this circle"
In such a situation, weak prices are not because crypto is "dead," but because there are no new elements to create synergy among new participants.
This is the root of confusion for most people.
They always believe that the next cycle will be triggered by some "better, more explosive" product, feature, or new narrative. But these are only effects, not causes. The real turning point will only become apparent after a deeper consensus upgrade is completed.
If you cannot see this logic, you will continue to be led by market noise, becoming the easiest target for those holding the bags.
This is why some people constantly chase "the next hot topic," trying to become the ultimate diamond hands, only to find themselves entering too late or, worse, buying the air of air coins.
If you want to cultivate a true investment instinct that allows you to discover opportunities early, rather than being left with the fate of a confused investor a week after every project issues tokens, you first need to learn to distinguish:
The Difference Between Consensus and Narrative
The fact is, every cycle that pulls the crypto world out of winter is always the same thing: the evolution of consensus.
"Consensus," in this circle, refers to humanity finding a new way to financialize some "abstract elements" (such as beliefs, judgment, identity, etc.) through cryptocurrency and to engage in large-scale collaboration around it.
Please note: Consensus is not the same as narrative. And most people's cognitive bias starts from here. 
Narrative is a shared story.
Consensus is shared behavior.
Narrative is spoken, consensus is acted upon.
Narrative attracts attention, consensus retains the crowd.
- Only narrative without action → Short-term revelry
- Only action without narrative → Evolution behind the scenes
- Both present → The true long cycle will start
To understand the nuances here, you need to take a long-term view and approach it from a broader perspective.
When you quickly skim through the brief history of crypto, you will find:
The underlying essence of all narratives is aggregation—and that is consensus. 
In 2017, ICO was the top "gathering" technique of that era. It was essentially a coordination mechanism that brought together people who believed in the same story, pooling their funds and beliefs in one place.
It was basically saying: “I have a PDF and a dream, want to bet?”
Later, IDO took this "gathering" to decentralized exchanges, turning fundraising into a "ritual" of free play without permission.
Then came the DeFi summer of 2020, which aggregated "financial labor." We became the back-end employees of that ever-open bank: lending, collateralizing, arbitraging, tirelessly searching for that 3000% annualized return, praying every night that it wouldn’t run away by morning.
Next was NFT in 2021, which aggregated not just capital, but also resonated with a certain shared culture, aesthetic, or ideology. Everyone was asking: “Wait, why should I buy a picture?” “That’s not just a picture; it’s culture.”
Everyone was looking for their own "tribe," and your little image was your passport, a digital "insider" badge, your ticket to high-end group chats and exclusive parties.
By 2024, the Meme Coin era could no longer be ignored. At this point, people were almost no longer concerned with technology. What it was truly aggregating was emotion, identity, and collective jokes within the circle.
What you were buying was no longer a white paper. You were buying that phrase “Those who understand, understand, and you know why I’m laughing (or crying), hehe.” You were buying a "community" that made you feel less lonely when the coin price dropped by 80%.
Now, we have welcomed prediction markets. What it aggregates is no longer emotion, but judgment, a shared belief in the future. Moreover, these beliefs have truly achieved borderless flow.
Take the U.S. presidential election as an example, a focal event for the whole world. But if you are not an American, you have no voting rights. However, in prediction markets, while you still cannot vote, you can bet on your understanding. At this point, the real transformation becomes evident.
Cryptocurrency is no longer just about moving funds; it is redistributing the power of "who gets to decide."
With each cycle, new dimensions are integrated into this large system: money, belief, financial labor, culture, emotion, judgment, ____? What will the next one be?
You will find that every breakthrough in the crypto field is essentially about gathering people in a new way. Each stage brings not just more users, but also a new reason for people to stay—that is the key.
The focus has never been on the tokens themselves; tokens are merely a topic that brings people together to play. What truly flows in this system are those things that can carry increasingly larger native consensus.
To put it bluntly: What flows in that pipeline is not "money" at all. It is us, learning how to reach increasingly larger and more complex consensus without a boss overseeing us.
If you want to understand this more thoroughly, take a look at the simple "Three Fuel Model" below:
- Liquidity (macro risk appetite, dollar liquidity, leverage capacity, etc.) is like oxygen injected into the market; it determines how fast prices can move.
- Narrative (why people care, how it is explained, common language) attracts attention; it determines how many people will look here.
- The underlying construction of consensus (shared behavior, repeated actions, decentralized collaboration methods) affects durability; it determines who will truly stay when prices no longer provide returns.
Liquidity may temporarily push up prices, and narratives may briefly ignite attention, but only new consensus can empower people with a win-win approach that transcends mere buying and selling actions.
This is precisely why many so-called crypto mini-bulls often fail to become true bull markets: they have liquidity and weave good stories, but the actual consensus among people remains unchanged.
So, how can we distinguish between "temporary revival" and true "consensus upgrade"?
Do not look at the price first—look at behavior. A true consensus upgrade often reveals similar signals over time; it changes the way we gather together to "play."
It always starts with behavior, not price.
If you want to learn to discern for yourself, merely looking at concepts is not enough; you need to review crypto history, learn from it, and summarize it to have a chance of discovering key points during the next consensus upgrade.
Below are four parts, including three expanded case studies that I have organized, followed by a basic checklist that can be used to identify whether the next consensus upgrade is approaching and how to judge whether the behavior driven by narratives will truly persist.
Expanded Case Study 1: The Booming ICOs of 2017 vs. Early Experiments
BTC and ETH prices during the ICO frenzy (mid-2017 to mid-2018)
This was the first time the crypto world figured out how to massively coordinate people and capital on a global scale. Billions of dollars flowed onto the blockchain, not directed at mature products, but injected with ideas.
Prior to this, there were early experiments, such as Mastercoin in 2013 and Ethereum's own crowdfunding in 2014. These attempts were interesting but remained niche. They had not created a behavioral model that could draw everyone onto the same track for global sharing.
In the early years of crypto, the gameplay was actually quite simple:
Mining, trading, holding, and using it to buy things (like on the dark web).
Of course, there were also many "get rich quick" Ponzi schemes at that time, but we did not have a standardized way to allow a group of strangers to collectively bet on the same dream on-chain.
The DAO in 2016 was a true "epiphany" moment for crypto. It proved that a group of strangers could pool funds solely based on code. But to be honest… the tools at that time were primitive, the technology was fragile, and it was ultimately hacked. A behavioral model emerged, but it was not sustainable.
Then came 2017, and everything became "mass-producible."
Ethereum and the (now more mature) ERC-20 standard turned token issuance into a mass production process. Suddenly, the "underlying logic" of participating in the crypto world underwent a revolution:
- Fundraising activities went fully on-chain, becoming the new norm.
- White papers became "investment targets."
- We exchanged "minimum viable products" for "minimum viable PDFs."
- Telegram directly became financial infrastructure.
This brand-new "trend-driven" behavior attracted millions and propelled an epic bull market. But more importantly, it permanently reshaped the DNA of the crypto world.
Even after the bubble burst, we never returned to the "old model." Anyone, anywhere could crowdfund for a protocol—this idea had taken root firmly.
Indeed, most ICOs at that time were outright scams or Ponzi schemes. Such dirty business existed before 2017 and still exists in 2026. But the way people collaborated and allocated funds has forever changed; this is what is called a "consensus upgrade."
Expanded Case Study 2: The DeFi Summer of 2020 vs. False Bulls
BTC and ETH prices during the DeFi Summer (June 2020 - September 2020)
This era also represented a true "consensus upgrade," because even without explosive price growth, people began to use crypto assets as "financial tools." This was starkly different from the ICO era—where price increases and user behavior were symbiotic.
Before 2020, aside from the ICO carnival, the experience in the crypto world was basically "buy, hold, trade, and then pray."
(Well, unless you were a miner… or doing something unspeakable 👀)
But now, people gradually formed on-chain muscle memory, permanently changing the industry. We learned to:
- Lend: Deposit your crypto assets into a protocol to earn "rent."
- Collateralize loans: Obtain purchasing power without selling your crypto assets, just like using a house as collateral for a loan.
- Liquidity mining: Move funds weekly to the most profitable places, shifting capital left and right.
- Become an LP: Put your chips on the table for others to trade, then take a cut from the fees.
- Circular collateralization: Collateralize, borrow, then re-collateralize and re-borrow, layering leverage and returns.
- Governance: Participate in voting on protocol rules, not just betting on token prices.
During the DeFi Summer, even when ETH and BTC were stagnant, the entire ecosystem felt "alive," and activity did not depend on linear price increases.
It broke the "pure casino" mindset because the crypto world felt for the first time like a productive financial system, rather than just a speculative toy.
DeFi projects like Compound ($COMP), Uniswap ($UNI), Yearn Finance ($YFI), Aave ($AAVE), Curve ($CRV), Synthetix ($SNX), and MakerDAO ($MKR/$DAI) became the "banks of the internet."
Even crazy experiments like SushiSwap were significant. Its "vampire attack" directly siphoned liquidity from Uniswap, proving that incentive mechanisms could indeed coordinate funds like commanding an army.
Then… came the false revival, the false bull market, the "temporary revival."
For example, those food-named copycat farming projects—Pasta, Spaghetti, Kimchi. They did not bring any new coordinated behavior, and most vanished as quickly as they appeared.
By 2021, DeFi was still vibrant (projects like dYdX and PancakeSwap were growing rapidly), but the phase of wild growth had ended, and the crowd had already turned to the next shiny narrative (NFTs).
Looking back from today (2026), you will find that 2020 was the true birth moment of the "on-chain economy." Almost everything we do now (from airdrop points, chasing TVL to Layer 2 incentive activities) has inherited the playbook from 2020.
After the DeFi Summer, if a new product cannot provide users with a substantial reason to stay on-chain, it will struggle to make a splash.
Incentives can indeed drive short-term activity, but if these rewards do not establish a lasting community habit (a new paradigm), then the moment the subsidies run out, the project will quickly devolve into a ghost town.
Expanded Case Study 3: The NFT Era Reverses Social Habits
BTC and ETH prices during the NFT frenzy (early 2021 to mid-2022). 2021 was a "perfect storm": global monetary easing and macro liquidity environment, institutional entry, NFT explosion, DeFi growth, public chain wars, etc., resonated simultaneously, pushing the market to its peak. This case study will focus on NFTs—one of the most influential core catalysts of this cycle.
If the DeFi Summer was the geek era where everyone was deeply studying liquidity curves, then 2021 was the year the crypto world finally gained "personality." We no longer competed purely for yield; we began to pursue atmosphere, identity, and belonging.
Digital items were no longer just "things" that could be copied and pasted at will. They had verifiable provenance. You were not just "buying a picture," but a digital receipt that said "you are the original owner," with the entire blockchain as your witness.
This completely rewrote the social script. People no longer tried to out-calculate each other; instead, they were showing off their identities.
Now, avatars became passports. Owning a CryptoPunk or a Bored Ape (BAYC) became a digital "proof of belonging to a circle." Your avatar was no longer your cat; it was your ticket to enter the "global elite circle."
At this point, barriers also emerged. Your wallet became your membership card. If you did not have the corresponding assets, you could not enter those private Discord channels, attend insider parties, or receive exclusive airdrops.
There was also IP ownership. BAYC granted commercial rights to holders and successfully broke the "ownership revolution" into the mainstream. Suddenly, strangers began to coordinate around their "apes," developing derivative products, music, and streetwear.
Most importantly, it attracted a large number of "outsiders" to enter. Artists, gamers, and creators who did not care about annualized returns or liquidation mechanisms suddenly found a reason to have a wallet.
Crypto was no longer just finance. It became the cultural layer of the internet.
From the perspective of consensus habits:
- What replaced liquidity pools were collectible series.
- What replaced total locked value were floor prices and social capital.
- What replaced yields were a sense of belonging.
Of course, "temporary revival" also followed…
First, we welcomed the wave of "imitators."
Once the "Bored Ape" model was validated, imitators flooded in. They had stories but no soul. Countless visually similar collectible series emerged, mostly "Bored Apes but with hamsters as the protagonists," promising fairy-tale-like roadmaps. Most of them turned into air, or rather, priced air.
Next came the "wash trading" frenzy.
Platforms like LooksRare and X2Y2 attempted to directly apply the logic of "DeFi mining" to NFTs, creating so-called "trading mining." The result was a group of "scientists" buying and selling to themselves, left hand to right hand. The trading volume on paper was astonishing, making it seem like the market had returned, but behind the scenes, it was all robots engaging in wash trading, while real players had already exited the group.
Finally, there is the "celebrity cash grab" frenzy.
Almost every first- and second-tier celebrity has launched a series because their agents told them it was a "new printing press." Without real consensus or community behind them, these projects disappeared faster than trends on TikTok.
So, what are the lessons here?
Just like the ICO and DeFi Summer eras, the NFT bubble has burst. But the residual behavioral patterns from this era are permanent, having lasted long enough to change the industry forever.
Crypto is no longer just a digital bank; it has become the cultural layer of the internet. We no longer ask, "Why own a JPEG?" but begin to understand what this series of behaviors signifies.
For example:
- Brands are shifting towards "digital passports" and "community as a service" (CaaS).
- In this AI-saturated era, provenance has become the standard for digital authenticity.
- Community-first release models have now become the go-to manual for every new consumer startup.
The habits of collaboration have persisted, and we have learned to belong to digital culture, ensuring we will never regress to the era of merely being "users."
Want to hone your "investment vision"? What can you do?
By now, you've read a third of this article. I provided three detailed case studies to illustrate how to distinguish between false consensus upgrades ("temporary revival") and true upgrades.
It is no exaggeration to say that I could write hundreds of pages on case analyses of meme coins and prediction markets, but teaching someone to fish is better than giving them fish, so I left this part of the analysis open for you to review and experience yourself.
Also, the narratives of failure and failed "consensus upgrades" are worth studying, such as Metaverse 1.0 from 2021-2022 and SocialFi 1.0 from 2023-2024. Although they left behind only the remnants of a "wave," and did not immediately reshape behavioral habits, this does not signify their end. True "consensus upgrades" rarely happen overnight. Just as Mastercoin in 2013 opened the door to ICOs but remained dormant for years until it truly exploded in 2017 and massively changed industry behavior. Early failures are stepping stones to understanding.
Don't turn a blind eye just because it's "cooled off." The next "consensus upgrade" may be something entirely new, but it could also be a revival of "old things" that once failed in "some new form." When such things happen, this understanding will be your great opportunity.
The best way to hone your "investment vision" is to personally put in the effort to research, analyze, and verify.
Ask yourself if you understand what the public is really doing. If you cannot observe the behavioral changes within, then you will not be able to detect the shifts in trends.
Before concluding the first part, I prepared a basic checklist to identify whether the next consensus upgrade is approaching. I call it the "5 Questions for Self-Protection of Retail Investors":
1. Are there "outsiders" entering?
A group of participants whose main purpose is not to make money has emerged; the people you see are no longer just here to speculate on coins. They are creators, builders, or individuals seeking identity recognition. If the room is filled only with traders, then the room is essentially empty.
(If you are a trader reading this—well, I am a trader too. You and I both understand that to keep this game going, relying solely on our PVP is not enough.)
2. Can it withstand the "incentive decay" test?
Observe what happens when rewards dry up or prices stagnate. If people stick around, it indicates that a habit has formed. If they disappear the moment the "free lunch" stops, then you are facing nothing but a bunch of price-tagged air.
3. Are they choosing "daily habits" over "positions"?
Novices only look at candlestick charts, while experts observe what people do daily. If they have built daily habits around this system, then this is a permanent upgrade.
4. Is there a phenomenon of "behavior > experience"?
Real transformation occurs when tools are still primitive, decentralized, and inefficient. If people are willing to endure a poor user interface to participate, then that behavior is "valid." By the time the applications become smooth and refined, it will be too late.
5. (The most important point!!) Is there "powering with love"?
This is crucial. When people start to defend a system because it forms part of their identity, rather than just because they might lose money, the transformation is complete.
So, if you only focus on price, the endless fantasy of buying the dip at a certain price is likely the reason you always "miss the big trend," "can't hold on," "constantly have a mental breakdown," and "can't sleep with a position." The huge bullish candles appear because the behavioral patterns have already been changing months ago.
Price is the result of this transformation; price is merely a lagging indicator that finally acknowledges the world has moved forward.
II. If you're not skilled, practice more; if wealth can't 1000x, then at least 10x your understanding first.
I know what you're thinking.
"Okay, I understand the underlying logic now, behavioral changes, collaborative upgrades, and so on. Theoretically, I know what to look for, but when the next consensus upgrade really happens, chaos and opportunity coexist…"
So, what exactly can rise 1000 times? More importantly, how can I discover these things early to buy in heavily?"
To be honest, this is the real world, not a feel-good story. Just this question alone is worth a fortune.
If someone can confidently look you in the eye and give you a "5-step wealth code" they got from who knows where, then they either want you to carry them to success or want you to pay a hefty "intelligence tax" to buy their "secret class."
Why do I say this? Because every new cycle is a brand new coordination game.
You cannot expect to take the script from the DeFi Summer of 2020 and use that same playbook to pick which meme coins will explode in 2024/2025. Even if you are a top meme hunter today, it does not guarantee that your methods will allow you to dominate the prediction market in 2026.
"Path dependence" has harmed many people.
(However, nothing is absolute; as long as your last name is Trump, then… you are right, after all, you are capable of drawing candlestick charts. Congratulations on being the best in two fields 😅)
No one can predict the future, but at the very least, we can lay a solid foundation for ourselves and build a basic framework that allows you to analyze and learn it 10 times faster than others when real opportunities arise.
Having your own framework does not guarantee you will earn more than in the last cycle, but it can give you a significant first-mover advantage compared to those who are just here to gamble.
The framework consists of three parts: the underlying logic of crypto cycles + the structure of crypto knowledge + the value anchoring system.
The first part has been covered; now let's discuss the second part, which is "What exactly should I learn, and what are the learning methods?"
But a thousand people have a thousand Hamlets; there is no such thing as "absolute correctness."
So here are two personal suggestions from me.
Suggestion 1: Become an On-Chain Detective
Below is a must-have basic skills checklist. All content can be 100% learned online for free, without any paid courses or "master" guidance. The only thing you need to invest is your determination and time:
First, you need to increase your ability to identify "organized targeting events"; otherwise, you will never escape the fate of being a bag holder. Learn to proficiently check wallet histories, holding distributions, bundled trades, and the flow of funds, and be able to sniff out any suspicious on-chain activities.
Second, understand market mechanisms to the best of your ability, judging potential supply shocks and avoiding violent liquidation spikes. You need to know where to look and understand: order book depth, spreads, net inflows/outflows on exchanges, token unlock schedules, Mcap/TVL ratios, open interest, funding rates, macro capital flows, etc.
Third, if you don't want to be devoured in the "dark forest," at least know how MEV works; otherwise, you might not even realize when you are being "sandwiched" (my painful lesson 😢).
If you want to learn deeper and run faster than those around you, you also need to learn to identify false trades, wash trading, arbitrage scoring, and "low circulation/high FDV" traps to the greatest extent possible. If you are chasing airdrops, understand what the anti-witch mechanism is.
Another important point is that you should automate some information flow-related tasks, such as various data anomaly alerts, news filtering, narrative filtering, noise reduction, etc. With vibe coding now available, the basic threshold for all this has lowered, and anyone can learn it.
As of 2026, almost everyone I know (including those without any CS background) is using self-made tools to filter out junk information and find opportunities. If you are still relying entirely on "manually finding information," this may be the reason you are always a step behind.
If you do not invest your determination, time, and effort to lay this foundation, you are choosing "hard mode." On a smaller scale, it means you are always a step slower than others or missing many opportunities; on a larger scale, it means being scammed, having your funds siphoned, or being drained until you finally break down and start learning (or simply resign and exit the circle).
I know this because I have walked this path myself, stepping on various landmines, such as being deceived by strangers and "friends," falling for various Ponzi schemes, being inundated with bizarre insider information, backdoor contracts, hot wallet thefts, OTC trading scams, and even being killed by social engineering. Not to mention the three times I was liquidated.
In addition to these "technical aspects," I have also compiled some pitfall prevention tips that you can directly use on the "social detective level."
Let's start with the simple things: Has the project's official account changed its name more than 10 times? Is any previous alias related to some scam projects that have run away? There are many tools to check account name change histories; use them. Before investing, first verify whether the team exists, and whether the founders and core members have X, LinkedIn, or GitHub accounts?
If they claim to have worked at well-known companies or graduated from prestigious schools, you need to verify that, as forged Stanford, Berkeley degrees, and fake resumes from former Meta, Google, or Morgan Stanley employees are far more common than people think.
The same goes for claims of "backed by certain VCs," "incubated by…," or "collaborating with…"; some "well-known investors" may have never "actually given money." Some "partners" are merely indirect advisors but allow the project to use their logo. Such occurrences happen far more frequently than you expect, and I have been a victim myself.
In today's world of AI proliferation, false interactions are becoming more frequent and increasingly difficult to discern. Can you spot the abnormal ratio between follower counts and engagement? Can you identify bot replies or AI-generated chatter on Discord, Telegram, and X?
If you couldn't do the above before, at least now you know where to start practicing.
Suggestion 2: Immerse Yourself in the World and Build Good Relationships
Simply put, you need to meet more people. Just like in the "financial circle," "tech circle," or "any circle," connections are your greatest asset.
I could write a list of "50 things to look for in investment research projects," but ultimately, that would be a pile of worthless chatter. Why do I say this?
Because the real "core information" or alpha, when it still has a first-hand information advantage, is never publicly shared.
By the time a project starts being heavily promoted by reputable voices in your information stream, you might still make some money, but that is no longer the "life-changing 1000x return" you came to the crypto world seeking; that "best entry" window has long been sealed shut.
This is why, in every cycle, most newcomers who eagerly want to strike gold end up becoming liquidity and then exit the circle. Because the information they receive is a "lagged and lagged" message filtered through layer upon layer of private circles.
So, if you don't have a reliable "insider line" (or lines), then position management is your only safety net, so make sure to allocate most of your crypto assets to long-term targets.
Long-term targets do not require such high information differentials, nor do they carry the crushing time pressure of short-term trading, allowing you breathing room to study public data. You don't need to be the first to discover a pattern because as long as a project can survive even 1.5 cycles, no matter when you enter, you are likely to reap several waves of profit.
At the same time, your long-term goal is to stop being a bystander and start becoming a participant. To do this, you need to have chips in hand. Apart from your family, this world is allied by interests; those you admire will not exchange first-hand information with someone who cannot provide equivalent value.
You need to become "someone of value" or possess "something of value" to exchange, whether it be expertise, field research, capital, or connections. No one is omniscient, and that is why you can seize such opportunities.
The best method is to sincerely and passionately delve into an ecosystem: first, find a job in a project within your favored field, whether you are a developer, operator, or business developer—"entry-level is easy to talk to." Work is the fastest way to build a reputation and meet your target audience.
Of course, merely having an entry-level web3 job won't immediately give you everything you want, but it's a great start.
“But what if I lack experience and can't find a reliable crypto job?”
The good news is: As of 2026, the crypto industry is still not a "career desert" like traditional finance or tech giants; you don't need an elite degree and two stacks of elite internship experiences, nor do you have to pass through multiple rounds of interviews to get a job.
In this industry, your on-chain experience is your resume. If you have already invested a lot of time experimenting, "going all in," and doing real work, you actually have more relevant experience than most "corporate people" who have transitioned.
What if I don't want to work for someone else? Then you have two other options (which still require tremendous effort) :
- If you are super smart and lucky enough to achieve impressive results on-chain and are not ready to retire, you can "link" that wallet address to your Twitter account; you won't even need to actively socialize—"like-minded" people will come to you.
- Build a personal brand on X, but the hardships of this process are known only to you; this is not a universal recommendation.
There is no free lunch in the world, nor are there reliable shortcuts. 100% effort does not guarantee 100% success, but 100% lack of effort will certainly lead to 100% failure unless your name is Barron Trump.
III. How to Achieve Victory Through Perseverance
Based on personal experience, those who can avoid "naked swimming" during trough cycles share the following two traits:
- They possess a strong conviction independent of price.
- They have established a multi-dimensional value anchoring system.
First, we must clarify that conviction does not equal blind obsession or blind faith due to what "some big shot" said.
It is not "I will never sell no matter what happens in the future."
True conviction is structural. And structure itself contains flexibility. You can have immense conviction while also taking profits in batches or adjusting your position ratios.
The key distinction is whether you can consistently return to this table.
You won't leave just because the music stops. The reason you first appeared here was never for those red and green candlesticks; you stayed because of that underlying "why."
Those who stand firm through cycles never ask: “Big shots, is it going up or down today?”
They will ask: “Even if the price deviates from my viewpoint for the next few years, does the underlying logic of this matter still hold?”
This difference in thinking leads to vastly different outcomes.
The mindset of "making quick money" not only empties your wallet.
It also erodes your conviction and destroys your belief system.
Re-establishing faith is far more difficult than rebuilding capital.
So, what exactly is their "multi-dimensional value system," and how can you build your own?
First Layer: Concept Anchoring (Concept)
Stop just staring at the candlesticks dancing; start focusing on core principles. Ask yourself: What makes this worth holding, even if its price has dropped below the screen?
Think back to the 10 tokens you recently traded. Now, fast forward two years. Ask yourself: How many of them will still "exist"? And how many will still be truly "important"?
If you cannot explain why a target is worth long-term capital investment without mentioning "community" or "going to the moon," then what you have is not conviction. What you have is just a position.
Second Layer: Time Dimension (Time)
The behavior logic of most people is chaotic; their decisions are easily manipulated by group emotions, just like in the following example:
- Today, they follow the crowd to buy 4 different meme coins in a secret Telegram channel, supposedly guaranteed to go to the moon.
- Tomorrow, they bet on certain projects on Polymarket because they saw a big shot on Twitter shouting about a wealth code.
- Suddenly, they disappear for a while.
- Then one day, they suddenly DM you, inquiring about a token that is about to be listed.
- But somehow, they suddenly bought a privacy sector token without even knowing what that sector is for.
- A few days later, they are in the group shouting “The bull is back, the big coin is charged up, go all in!” mindlessly going long on Bitcoin just because a news headline says "it will rise to $200,000 next month."
Hey, this is not a strategy; this is completely handing your money over to others. Throwing the Holy Grail might even have a higher success rate than this.
Of course, I have seen people make money this way, but I have never seen such people manage to keep that money two months later. What they leave behind is a glorious past and +99999% psychological trauma.
The real problem with these people is that they easily lose their own opinions due to noise interference while also opening multiple "battlefields" beyond their capabilities and understanding.
Short-term speculation, mid-term positioning, and long-term investment each require completely different behavioral patterns. Those who can cross cycles clearly know which time dimension each position belongs to and will never let emotions cross dimensions.
They will not deny long-term conviction due to short-term price noise, nor will they use long-term narratives to excuse their impulsive short-term actions.
If you are trying to shift from day trading to swing trading, here are some common "self-destructive" mistakes:
- You tell yourself you are now a "long-term investor," but you still spend 80% of your time chasing one-off news headlines.
- You see a trivial 3% pullback that should be within your risk tolerance and still panic.
- Worst of all, you are still using a "quick money mindset" to allocate positions and assess risks, leading you to repeatedly miss the big trend.
Anchoring from a time dimension means forcing yourself to answer an extremely uncomfortable question before clicking "buy": “How long am I willing to admit I was 'wrong'?”
Third Layer: Behavioral Aspect (Behavior)
You cannot just say you "have faith" when things are going well. When your account is deep in the red, and the voice in your head is screaming at you to "do something," that is the real test.
You need to establish a self-questioning framework to predict yourself, not the market.
Before entering each trade, you need to go through the following checklist to ensure that your future self will not trip up your present self:
When the price drops by x%, do I already have a plan?
Do I clearly know whether I will hold, reduce my position, or exit?
Am I someone whose butt decides their brain?
During a pullback, am I objectively reassessing my investment logic, or am I subconsciously gathering information just to find reasons for panic selling?
Am I frequently changing my target levels?
When the price rises by x%, do I become greedy and keep raising my profit-taking target just because "I feel it coming"?
Can I explain the reasons for "holding" without using the term "hype"?
Apart from looking at sentiment and hype, can I clearly articulate the reasons behind holding?
Is this "conviction" or "sunk cost"?
When a position stagnates longer than expected, am I holding it because the investment logic still holds, or because I am unwilling to admit I was wrong?
How long is my "error acknowledgment time" after breaking the rules?
When I violate one of my trading rules, do I immediately notice and take action, or do I only react after my account has suffered significant losses?
Am I prone to "revenge trading"?
After a loss, do I immediately feel a rush of blood and want to jump into another trade just to "recover what I just lost, I must get it back"?
The purpose of these questions is not to guess how the candlesticks will move, but to outline whether your future self will betray your present self when you are under immense psychological pressure.
The so-called "behavioral anchors" are essentially a preprocessing of pressure. Setting actions while calm is to prevent you from acting chaotically in despair.
After all, if you haven't thought through what plan to "play" trading, then ultimately, trading will start to "play" you.
Fourth Layer: Belief Dimension (Belief)
Have you noticed that the people who "disappear" the fastest are often the loudest during a bull market:
“This is the last chance to buy XX!”
“After this, you won't see Bitcoin below $100,000 again!”
“Trust me, go all in, if you don't buy XX, you're going against the future!”
As the price reverses, this group of people vanishes one by one, their "faith" seems to have never existed.
This "get-rich-quick" mentality not only destroys your portfolio through frequent trading but also erodes your belief system. And a shattered belief system is far more difficult to rebuild than a bank account.
“Quick money always invites sad overreactions. It’s in our nature,
just like animals in Africa feeding on carcasses.”
— Charlie Munger
Sadly, most people exhaust their capital at the peak of the frenzy, and when the real opportunity (the true bear market) finally arrives, they have no "bullets" left.
What a cruel joke: The mindset that brings people into the crypto world, the desire for overnight wealth, is precisely what stifles their ability to acquire wealth.
Most people don't even realize what they have lost until years later when Bitcoin rises exponentially again, and they slap their thighs asking: “Why couldn't I endure that little setback back then? If I had known, I would have held on.”
This is why belief is the most important layer: it is a creed that takes years to form.
How to Test if Your Belief is Strong Enough?
Try this: If someone were to fiercely question your stance right now, could you calmly defend it? Can you face sharp questions without avoiding them?
Your belief should be extremely subjective and unique.
For some, it is the Cypherpunk spirit: a complete rebellion against regulation and centralized control. For them, crypto is not just an investment; it is a glimmer of hope to exit a broken system.
For others, it is another iteration in the history of currency: they see the cyclical devaluation of fiat currencies and financial plunder, realizing that crypto is the only hedge against traditional systems that collapse in similar ways every century.
For certain believers, it represents sovereignty, neutrality, or the right to exist.
You must find your own "why," rather than merely renting someone else's ideology. I cannot tell you what your unique belief should be, but I can share mine.
Last year, when I only had 2,000 followers and no one cared about what I said, I wrote a post answering a simple question:
Why, after experiencing all these crashes and zeroes, do I still buy Bitcoin?
I call it: "The Fourth Covenant Between God and Humanity."
The first three covenants in human history all have a fatal flaw: they were never meant for everyone.
The first is the Old Testament.
It is bound by bloodlines, and ownership is determined before you are born. If you do not belong to the chosen lineage, you have never had the right to belong.
The second is the New Testament.
It speaks of love and redemption for all, but history reveals the truth that words attempt to cover: if you were a poor Asian farmer in the 17th century, you would never have the chance to step into a cathedral; the empire would block you at the door, and only race, power, and hierarchy determine who is worthy of redemption.
The third is the Declaration of Independence.
This is the birth of the modern world, promising freedom, equality, and opportunity, but only if you are born on the right land, hold the right passport, and are within the right system.
Of course, in a sense, "freedom of migration" exists, but for most people, the cost is too high, and the probability is slim; these rules seem to have never been written for ordinary people.
Most people have never even reached the starting line; they spend their lives proving they "deserve" to belong, using money, education, obedience, or luck, layer by layer begging this system to let them "belong."
And now, the Fourth Covenant has appeared: Bitcoin! 
This is the first system in human history that does not ask who you are.
It does not care about your race. It does not care about your nationality. It does not care what language you speak, nor where you were born.
There are no priests, no political systems, no borders, and no permissions required, just you and a private key.
You do not need to be chosen, you do not need connections, you do not need approval, and you do not need to prove yourself to Bitcoin. You either understand it or you do not.
This system does not promise you comfort, safety, or guaranteed success; it only offers something humanity has never truly possessed: at the same time, everyone faces the same rules and has the same access rights.
For me, this is not an investment argument, it is not a trade, nor is it a gamble. This belief is the only reason I can sit through the market's ups and downs, endure years of silence, questioning, ridicule, and despair, and still hold on.
If you have patiently read this far…
Then congratulations, you have obtained the blueprint of a "survivor."
You have learned how to identify "consensus upgrades," you have learned how to use that "investigator toolkit" to improve your chances of early entry, and you know what elements are needed to build belief and maintain composure.
However, I must honestly tell you: The way of nature is to follow the path. No matter how advanced your tools are, if you cannot control the person using the tools, it will always be brute force.
Everything I share comes from the countless mistakes, lessons, and deep scars I have experienced over 13 years in the market. These fragmented reflections I write down also stem from late-night conversations with friends who have similarly survived the battlefield.
Looking through my messy notes, I realize that the material I have at hand could at least be enough to write a book, with each chapter exploring crypto from different angles.
However, these lessons cannot make you a master overnight, just as the "quick money mindset" cannot truly make you wealthy.
I have witnessed the fall of those "geniuses" in every cycle… Losing money is not because they are not smart or made a wrong move, but because they all have a "mind that only wants to make quick money," while holding a proud but "fragile" ego. Meanwhile, those who are still profiting in 2026, and those who have preserved their gains and exited, share a common understanding: the token itself has never been the focus.
The focus is the sovereign system we are building and the personal discipline required to belong to it.
Crypto is the most brutal and honest teacher on this planet: it will force out the demons within you and find your weakest traits—whether it be greed, impatience, or laziness. And for this, it will charge you a hefty "tuition fee." As for mine, I think I have paid in full, haha. My only hope is that this article can save you from paying as much as I did.
If you really read through all of this (and didn't let AI summarize it for you), then I truly believe you have the potential to become one of the survivors who have conquered multiple cycles, the kind of person who can truly master the skill set I provided in the second part.
I sincerely hope you can become one of my new "old friends," a comrade who can grow with me in the next cycle, the cycle after that, and in countless future cycles, witnessing Bitcoin completely disrupt the world together.
And to my long-time readers: Thank you; it is your kindness and support that made me decide to reflect on my past and share these experiences.
The crypto world may often be frustrating, but it is still worth loving and worth building.
So, I will take my leave first, and see you next time during our "consensus upgrade."
— Pickle Cat
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