The big shot said it's not surprising if Bitcoin drops to $20,000, and I inquired about the reasons.

Yesterday, I chatted with a Bitcoin big shot for half a day and got some astonishing viewpoints—although I don't fully agree, I think his research is quite in-depth, so it's worth sharing for reference, and I also want to hear everyone's opinions.

This big shot is not the type who is just lucky with a lot of money; rather, he is a highly knowledgeable, cutting-edge investor. He has already sold over 80% of his Bitcoin and only retains 20%, which is negligible compared to his wealth.

He mentioned two reasons:

First, Bitcoin has lost its most important characteristic of "countering fiat currency" and has become part of dollar assets.

Originally, Bitcoin was meant to counter fiat currency, but now it has been tied to the U.S. and the dollar by Wall Street. No one can claim that Bitcoin is American; technically and emotionally, it cannot be said that way—but in fact, that is exactly what has happened.

He pointed out that the current global macro environment is that the U.S. is implementing "America First," prioritizing the dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds. Their biggest goal is to solidify the status of the U.S. and the dollar.

Bitcoin and blockchain are also part of this grand strategy. Whether it's the genius bill or the recently proposed CLARITY Act, it's all the same, especially with the recent announcement that confiscated Bitcoin will be used as national reserves—everything points to the U.S. recognizing Bitcoin and supporting blockchain.

However, this support has both advantages and disadvantages. The good aspects are already visible to everyone, but the downsides are becoming increasingly apparent—Bitcoin is losing its core independence to counter global fiat currencies.

China and Russia will not buy Bitcoin; they only buy gold. Only the U.S. and its allies will support it, but in the eyes of U.S. allies, Bitcoin is similar to all dollar assets but carries greater risk, making it even less justifiable to hold. Almost all U.S. states have also opposed Bitcoin as national reserves.

He said that on-chain data shows that Wall Street is continuously buying Bitcoin, including MicroStrategy, but the more they buy, the greater the impact on Bitcoin's independence. The biggest player in Bitcoin is now the U.S., and the disadvantages outweigh the advantages.

Now, global geopolitical risks are increasing. Even Denmark, a U.S. ally, has sold its U.S. Treasury bonds. The U.S. is fighting a dangerous but must-win global financial war. If this battle is lost, U.S. Treasury bonds will collapse, and the dollar's credit system will fail—under the current circumstances, capital betting on "America's Bitcoin" will decrease.

This is also why we often see large funds selling Bitcoin, and the resolve is becoming stronger because Bitcoin has lost its primary function of "countering fiat currency" and has instead become part of the dollar—leading to the worst-case scenario: even those who are optimistic about the U.S. do not need to buy Bitcoin, the highest-risk asset, and can choose to invest in U.S. stocks, which offer higher liquidity and certainty.

Second, the entire network's computing power is shifting towards AI.

AI is an unprecedented event that will change human history, a hundred times greater than the Industrial Revolution, and will happen a hundred times faster. Many mining farms can already switch to data centers at any time, and currently, the returns from data centers are higher than Bitcoin in the short term and likely much higher in the long term, especially for those listed on U.S. stock exchanges. Engaging in data centers and reaping the AI dividends is a long-term, lucrative path, so many people are moving towards data centers.

Bitcoin's computing power has decreased by nearly 20% in recent months, and the mining difficulty has been adjusted down for the seventh time, meaning there are fewer miners, and it's easier to mine coins.

He said that the latest mining machines have a mining cost of over $30,000, and as computing power continues to decline, it wouldn't be surprising if costs drop to over $20,000. Moreover, these transitioning mining companies will need to sell a large amount of coins to support their transformation.

Considering past mining crises, it wouldn't be unexpected for prices to fall below shutdown levels.

He asked me, isn't MicroStrategy the only one in the crypto circle that is optimistic about Bitcoin and buying it? Can he not turn back? Is he the most correct person in the world? I was left speechless.

He also mentioned that ETH has risen from $800 to $3,000, isn't that just TOM LEE and Yi Li Hua buying and shouting it up? Are those two definitely the most correct? I had no response.

Finally, he said that back in the day, this group of geeks bought Bitcoin because it countered fiat currency, but now that it is so deeply tied to the dollar, it doesn't feel as fun as before. There are so many good assets in the world; it has become less attractive.

After our conversation, I thought about it all night and couldn't see how it could drop to $20,000, and even $60,000 seems difficult. But he mentioned that extreme situations are not 100% impossible?

I would like to hear everyone's opinions.

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