Bitcoin showed an overall downward trend during yesterday's trading session, with very weak rebound strength and almost no effective recovery. After entering the evening session in the U.S., bearish forces were further released, and the decline significantly expanded, continuing into this morning. At one point, the price dipped to around 88,000, essentially erasing the rebound space from early last week, and the trend returned to the previous weak range.
Ethereum also weakened in sync, with prices continuing to oscillate downward, hitting a low of around 2,920 this morning. After breaking below this key integer level, market sentiment clearly turned cautious.
Macroeconomic Perspective: Rising Risk Aversion, Pressure on Risk Assets
From a macro perspective, the market maintains a probability of about 95% that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in January, making it difficult for monetary policy to support risk assets in the short term. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin reiterated at the World Economic Forum in Davos that the Trump administration is willing to use tariffs as a primary geopolitical tool. This statement has once again raised market concerns about escalating trade frictions and their potential to drive up inflation, leading to a noticeable increase in global risk aversion.
Against this backdrop, risk assets are generally under pressure, and the cryptocurrency market has once again become a target for capital reduction, with selling pressure concentrated and prices accelerating downward.
Technical Perspective: Bearish Trend, Focus on Key Support Levels
From a technical structure perspective, Bitcoin has formed a series of consecutive bearish candles on the daily chart, increasing the risk of further declines. However, it is important to note that the current price is running near the lower Bollinger Band at 87,800, which is not only a technical support level but also close to the lower edge of the previous range, providing strong guidance for short-term movements.
On the four-hour chart, the MACD continues to show bearish momentum, and the trend remains weak; however, the RSI has entered the oversold zone and shows signs of turning, indicating a potential technical rebound or correction in the short term. Therefore, it is essential to focus on whether a rebound correction occurs during the decline, but it should be clear that this rebound is more about correction rather than a trend reversal.
Key Price Levels for Bitcoin and Daily Strategy
Support below: Pay close attention to the strength of support at the 88,000 level,
If this level is lost, the decline may further expand, entering a deeper correction range of 87,000-85,000.
Resistance above: Short-term rebound pressure is at the 90,000 integer level, and reclaiming this level will test the 91,000-92,000 resistance again.
If the bulls can reclaim the 90,000 level, the price is expected to initiate a corrective rebound; however, in the context of an overall bearish structure, a rebound does not equate to a reversal, and one should be cautious of the risk of being pressured downward again after the rebound.
Ethereum: Key Defense at 2,900 After Breaking Below 3,000
After Ethereum broke below the 3,000 level, the short-term structure has clearly weakened, and it is currently facing important support in the 2,900 area. This level is both an integer level and a previous area of multiple contests, providing strong short-term support.
Support below: 2,900, 2,800
Resistance above: First, focus on the situation of reclaiming 3,000.
If the rebound strength is strong, further testing of the 3,050-3,100 area cannot be ruled out.
However, before the overall downward risk is fully released, the rebound space will still be limited.
Overall, the cryptocurrency market is currently still in a weak phase of continuing the downward trend. Although short-term indicators suggest a demand for rebound correction, in the context of rising macro risk aversion and an unchanged bearish structure, the focus should be on defense and rhythm control, avoiding blind chasing during the rebound.
Key attention should be paid to the loss or gain of the two major support levels at 88,000 (BTC) and 2,900 (ETH) during the day, while also monitoring the impact of the European Central Bank President's speech and Trump's speech in the evening on market sentiment, which may trigger short-term volatility again.
This article is exclusively contributed by Jian Crypto (follow the official account: Jian Crypto) and represents personal views only. Due to the timing of the article's release, the above views or suggestions may not be timely and are for reference only; risks are borne by the reader. Manage trading positions reasonably and avoid heavy or full positions. Developing good investment habits is essential for a positive cycle!
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