Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author | Wenser (@wenser 2010)

As a popular track that has continued to rise since the beginning of the year, the prediction market is not short of wealth creation miracles.

But behind the miracles, whether they are real spectacles achieved through timely judgment and agile maneuvers, or false hype created through deception and confusion, requires the audience to have discerning eyes to tell the truth from falsehood. Recently, a Polymarket trader on X claimed to have achieved an "8300 times miracle," betting from a $12 principal to over $100,000, but was soon exposed for using multiple accounts to fabricate and hype; another trader manipulated the price of XRP, raking in $230,000 in the "15-minute prediction of price fluctuations" section, executing a one-sided harvest on betting bots on Polymarket.

On the stage of betting on both sides, some want to dance with lies, while others exploit loopholes in the rules to seize wealth. In the gamble of right and wrong, there is no invincible strategy, only flexible tactics.

From $12 to $100,000: The 8300 Times Miracle of Polymarket vs. Trader Fabrication Scheme

The story begins with a post titled “Self-narration of battling from a $12 principal to a $100,000 profit, achieving 8300 times return”.

On January 16, trader ascetic posted that by "going all in on Bitcoin's short-term volatility," he doubled his principal 16 times in a row, ultimately achieving a milestone of $100,000 profit from $12. He emphasized that during the betting process, he "specifically shared his betting strategy and the reasons behind it."

He then shared his Polymarket account link in the comments and stated that such a wealth creation miracle could only be performed on Polymarket （Odaily Planet Daily Note: Does it feel familiar? Previous traders used similar expressions on platforms including but not limited to OpenSea, Blur, Pump.fun, Hyperliquid, Aster, etc.）.

The comments section soon turned into a "blood-boiling celebration of Polymarket community members," with countless people congratulating him, and even Polymarket's global growth head LeGate stated: "Congratulations, brother! I think you truly deserve it! Congratulations on earning the @PolymarketTrade badge!" （Odaily Planet Daily Note: This account is an active trader community account on Polymarket.）

If you think this would be a typical "get-rich-quick bragging tweet," then you might underestimate the dramatic nature of the situation.

Soon, the wind of the "8300 times return miracle on Polymarket" event took a sharp turn.

From Betting Miracle to Fabrication Scam: 8300 Times Return Data Questioned

On January 16, the trader Moses, who claimed to be "ranked 515th in Polymarket trading for 2025," questioned the account data of trader ascetic, stating: "Have you ever thought about why his account balance in the first post was $3,000? The answer is simple: he operates a large 'witch farm.' He did not start from $12, but from hundreds of accounts, each investing $10 to $20. Once one of the accounts reached $2,900, he began posting. Since then, he has made seven trades, all winning.

But note, he bets all his funds each time. A real trader wouldn't do that. He is just chasing fame and fortune, using any means necessary to achieve his goals.

Due to insufficient trading volume, he even seems to have used other accounts for fake trades to achieve the prices he wanted.

Before blindly trusting 'internet celebrities,' please be sure to investigate on your own. Attached are images showing some of his failed witch accounts, which at most earned $1,000."

Moses later added in the comments that all accounts were created seven months ago and continuously participated in random markets, with all accounts starting the same challenge on the same day two months ago. The entire claim of "from $10 to $100,000" is false!

Not only that, he also posted screenshots and links to the corresponding witch accounts:

• Account one: https://polymarket.com/@brockmatthew;
• Account two: https://polymarket.com/@wellscandice;
• Account three: https://polymarket.com/@jbryan.

Although ascetic later responded in the comments that the wallets and accounts mentioned by Moses were unrelated to him, and some members of the ZSC DAO (a Polymarket trader community) supported him, the connections between the bot replies in ascetic's previous tweets and accounts with similar behavioral trajectories to his Polymarket account still significantly undermined the credibility of this "8300 times return miracle."

Some commenters mentioned that it was hard to understand why he would do this, as "seven consecutive successful bets" is already an impressive feat; but others pointed out that this was still a “robot-style wide-net game”.

Of course, it is somewhat ironic that Moses's personal profile also states his "journey from $1 to $1 million" tag; whether it is a real achievement or a personal goal, we cannot know.

Compared to the hard-to-judge ascetic, the following case of a trader who made $230,000 profit through price manipulation in the XRP "15-minute price fluctuation betting market" may be more worthy of study for whale players.

Trader Uses Binance Spot to Reverse Harvest Prediction Market: $1 Million Principal Rakes in $230,000 Profit

On January 18, Polymarket trader PredictTrader revealed a trading operation by a trader comparable to a dramatic version of "The Wolf of Wall Street"—by harvesting the liquidity of trading bots, he earned $233,000 in just a few hours without attracting large-scale attention from the market.

The trader, named a4385, chose his timing very cleverly—at that time it was Saturday night, with insufficient market liquidity and the Binance spot order book also being quite average.

In the trading of "XRP price fluctuations—January 17, Eastern Time 12:45-1:00," he bought a large amount of "up" chips.

His trading counterpart was the relatively common "personal market maker" on Polymarket—various trading bots. （Odaily Planet Daily Note: Polymarket's market making is relatively simple, with a low entry barrier for individual developers, and trading bots are currently very popular）. Ten minutes into the trade, XRP had dropped about 0.3% from the opening price, but he had pushed the "up" shares to 70%. The trading bots saw a profit opportunity but fell into the "price trap" set by the trader, selling him more "up" chips.

Ultimately, the trader bought $77,000 worth of "up" chips at an average price of 48%.

Just two minutes before the settlement of the betting event, a wallet on Binance bought about $1 million worth of XRP spot, pushing its price up about 0.5%; seconds after the betting event settled, this $1 million spot was quickly sold.

In other words, the cost of this price manipulation event was—about 0.25% of one-sided trading slippage + fees.

Using a Binance VIP level 4 account (0.06%) (which is easy to obtain) and 0.25% of two-way slippage, the total cost was about $6,200, and the actual operational cost could be even lower. By repeatedly performing the same operation and taking advantage of the weekend's liquidity shortage, the trader cleared out multiple bot wallets.

Some bots were shut down in time, while others reacted too slowly and lost all their funds—among them was @aleksandmoney, which lost all its profits for the entire year (about $160,000).

a4385 Polymarket account link: https://polymarket.com/profile/0x506bce138df20695c03cd5a59a937499fb00b0fe

In conclusion, I hope that traders who bet on both sides and passionately fight in the prediction market can discern fact from appearance. Sometimes, the truth is not always objective, while the standards and rules determined by the platform are subjectively defined.

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