Qinglan Crypto Class is starting! BTC's four cycles + news perspective, guiding you to step in sync with the crypto market rhythm.
- Multi-Cycle Technical Analysis: Conflicting Charts and Unified Signals
First, let's talk about the technical aspect. The four cycles do seem to be "singing different tunes," but upon closer inspection, the context is still clear.
Daily Chart (Long-term Trend): The bearish pattern remains intact. Prices are suppressed below all major moving averages (MA5/10/20), which is a typical bearish arrangement. The MACD is below the zero line; although the green bars are shortening, indicating a temporary slowdown in downward momentum, the trend is not broken. Key support is around 95495, with resistance in the 92500-93000 range. On the daily level, the overall direction is still downward.
4-Hour Chart (Medium-term Rhythm): Low-level oscillation rebound. Prices have rebounded from a low of 97924 and are currently building a platform around 95000. MA5 and MA10 show signs of flattening and convergence, while the MACD fast and slow lines have crossed upwards after a low-level golden cross below the zero line, indicating medium-term rebound pressure. Key resistance is at 94500 (previous high platform), with support at 96500-97000.
1-Hour Chart (Short-term Game): Weak decline after a rebound. After a sharp pullback last night to around 94500, the current trend is a weak decline. The moving average system (MA5/10/20) has not yet reversed its bullish arrangement, and the MACD is above the zero line. Although red bars have appeared (forming a top divergence), the downward force is very weak, unable to even break above MA20. This indicates that bulls still dominate in the short term.
15-Minute Chart (Ultra-short-term Direction): Typical range oscillation. Prices are oscillating back and forth within a 1000-point box between 94500-95500. The MACD is repeatedly crossing above and below the zero line, while the RSI hovers between 40-60, showing no clear direction. This reflects a brief balance between bulls and bears at a critical position.
In summary, the technical analysis indicates: long-term bearish (daily), medium-term rebound (4-hour), short-term bullish (1-hour), and ultra-short-term oscillation (15-minute). In simple terms: "The foundation is weak, but recently we've taken some medicine and need to catch our breath to recover."
- News Aspect: Warm Winds and Cold Currents Intertwined
On the news front, there are both bullish and bearish factors, but overall it leans towards the cold.
Major Bearish Factor: The core issue is "Bitcoin demand is lower than the issuance." Institutional buying is far behind miner output, which is the most hardcore fundamental logic suppressing the long-term bearish trend of the coin price, giving us the confidence to exit in the long term.
Technical Confirmation: The news also warns of "Bitcoin's death cross," which is usually a strong mid-term bearish technical signal, corroborating the bearish pattern on the daily level.
Potential Bullish Factors: Some analysts have mentioned the possibility of "Bitcoin price hitting the bottom," believing that imbalances in traditional financial markets (gold/oil) may feed back into the crypto market. Additionally, news that South Korea may restrict overseas exchange apps is a regional bullish factor, with limited impact but worth noting for sentiment.
Industry Dynamics: Developments like Anchorage Digital's financing push for an IPO, Coinbase's entry into stock trading, and Solana's RWA surpassing $1 billion all show that mainstream institutions and hedge funds are still accelerating their layout in the crypto ecosystem, which is the basis for the existing capital game.
- Comprehensive Forecast and Trading Ideas
Combining the technical and news aspects, my forecast is: in the short term (next 1-3 days), it is highly likely to continue oscillating in the 94500-96500 range, and may even test the strong resistance area of 97000-96500 again. However, in the medium term (1-2 weeks), after exhausting buying pressure, the weak fundamental (supply-demand imbalance) and technical (death cross) may lead to a resumption of the downward trend.
Here are some trading ideas for everyone:
Short-term Traders (Scalping): Focus on the 15-minute chart, making high sell and low buy trades within the 94500-95500 range. Try shorting near the upper edge with a light position, placing a stop loss above 95800; near the lower edge, reduce positions or try going long, with a stop loss below 94200. Quick in and out, don’t be greedy.
Medium-term Planners: This is not the time to panic sell. Patiently wait for a rebound, focusing on the 96500-97000 resistance zone. If prices encounter resistance here and show a top divergence confirmation or a volume spike on the 1-hour chart, you can gradually build a short position, with a stop loss above 98000. The initial target is 94500, and if it breaks, look for previous lows.
Long-term Holders: Ignore short-term fluctuations and mainly observe. The daily trend hasn’t changed, and the fundamental story (concerns about oversupply) is just beginning; don’t be lured into buying on rebounds.
For more quantitative breakdowns of how real-time news affects market sentiment, check out my Qinglan Crypto Class at qinglan.org
Finally, here’s today’s insight:
“Markets are born in despair, rise in hesitation, and end in euphoria. The current oscillation is the market training our patience and discipline.” Let’s maintain our mindset and respond calmly.
Alright, that’s it for today’s market analysis. If you have any questions, feel free to reach out anytime. I’m Qinglan, see you next time!
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
