On January 16, 2026, at 8:00 AM UTC+8, Cathie Wood, as the founder of ARK Invest, released the annual letter for the new year, redefining the macro landscape and technology investment opportunities for 2026. In this lengthy letter addressed to global investors, she presented a narrative that deviates from the traditional "recovery-inflation-interest rate hike" cycle, offering a rather counterintuitive judgment: AI-driven deflation will coexist with economic rebound. Within ARK's framework, deflation is no longer merely a signal of collapsing demand but rather the other side of accelerated productivity and cost collapse. Accompanying this is a forced rewrite of asset allocation logic, with Bitcoin being pulled back into the center of the discussion on "non-correlated assets" from its previous status as a highly volatile speculative target. A new suspenseful question arises: during a rebound cycle characterized by AI deflation, will Bitcoin be viewed as a safe-haven tool, a tech asset, or a systemic option that transcends macro cycles?

The Counterintuitive Narrative of AI Deflation Expectations and Economic Rebound

In this year's annual letter, ARK first provided its definition of "AI-driven deflation." It is not a traditional textbook decline in aggregate demand but rather a sustained decrease in unit costs and accelerated productivity brought about by large-scale AI applications, which in turn lowers overall price increases and may even push inflation into negative territory. The letter cites the statement that "AI-driven deflation could lead to a new round of economic rebound in the U.S. in 2026 against a backdrop of negative inflation," emphasizing a logic: if price declines stem from technological advancements rather than demand collapse, then corporate profit margins and real incomes may actually improve in sync, and the economy will not automatically slide into a deep recession. It is within this logical framework that ARK defines the U.S. economy in 2026 as a special phase of "rebounding in the shadow of deflation."

However, this optimistic dissection of deflation sharply contrasts with the reflexive responses of traditional market participants. In decades of macro narratives, deflation often signifies demand collapse, a substantial increase in debt burdens, and heightened unemployment risks, and it is almost always associated with keywords like "crisis" and "long-term stagnation." Therefore, when ARK attempts to repackage deflation as an external manifestation of "productivity dividends," conservative investors are more inclined to view it as a minority opinion that "beautifies risk." Especially in the context of the frequently mentioned "rolling recession" over the past few years, where different industries and regions take turns facing pressure, and short-term data recovery coexists with structural weakness, emotional rifts are further exacerbated: some funds remain fixated on the recession narrative, anticipating a return to monetary easing; while others begin to bet on tech optimism represented by AI, believing that structural opportunities are sufficient to offset macro-level fatigue. AI deflation serves as a wedge that pries open this rift, forcing investors to oscillate between "long-term optimism driven by technological progress" and "real fears of cyclical downturns."

Asset Allocation Reconfiguration: The Tide of Old Paradigms in the Deflation Era

Against this macro expectation, the fatigue of traditional asset allocation paradigms is further amplified. Taking the classic 60/40 stock-bond portfolio as an example, during periods of high inflation and high interest rates, bond prices are pressured, and stock market valuations are compressed, causing this previously regarded "all-weather" allocation framework to frequently underperform. Even when investors attempt to hedge risks by increasing defensive sectors, preferred stocks, or high-rated credit bonds, it is challenging to completely escape the dual squeeze of rising interest rates and increased volatility. Long-term government bonds, once hailed as a "safety cushion," have seen significant drawdowns during multiple rate hike cycles, putting the "duration for safety" creed to the test.

As the narrative shifts from high inflation to AI-driven deflation and technological disruption, this dilemma does not automatically resolve but rather extends into new dimensions. Deflation expectations compress nominal returns, technological shocks erode traditional industry profits, and the appeal of old "safe assets" like bonds and defensive stocks continues to decline. For institutional funds that have already experienced multiple rounds of alternating liquidity easing and tightening, relying solely on traditional stock-bond rotation is becoming increasingly difficult to achieve excess returns under controlled risk. This backdrop is driving a subtle yet profound shift in asset allocation thinking: investors are beginning to actively seek asset classes that are weakly correlated with traditional macro cycles, or even partially decoupled, to hedge against policy surprises and economic path uncertainties. It is in this blank space that cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin are being pulled back into view, no longer just a "marginal betting table" for speculative rotation but regarded as a potential structural piece of the puzzle.

The Reshaping of Bitcoin's Non-Correlation Narrative

In this round of discussions about AI deflation and asset reconfiguration, Bitcoin's role has been noticeably repackaged. ARK emphasizes Bitcoin's fixed supply as a fundamental attribute in the letter and cites its characteristic of "lower correlation" with traditional assets to argue for its value as a portfolio diversification tool. This same narrative appears in industry media interpretations, with @DecryptNews directly describing Bitcoin as "expected to become an important tool for enhancing unit risk-return and achieving asset diversification." Compared to earlier labels surrounding "wild price swings" and "high-leverage speculation," this set of rhetoric is clearly more aligned with the context of institutional investors: it no longer tells a story based on absolute price increases but attempts to secure a "rational seat" for Bitcoin in the asset pool from the perspective of portfolio optimization and risk-adjusted returns.

This also means that Bitcoin's mainstream narrative is undergoing a gentle yet clearly directed migration. In recent years, it has often been packaged as "digital gold" or a tool for "hedging inflation," closely tied to the excessive issuance of fiat currency and rising inflation expectations. However, under the setting of AI deflation and the tech wave, this singular hedging logic struggles to encompass the new complexities. ARK and market commentary are gradually placing Bitcoin into another portfolio: on one hand, it remains a long-term hedge against the traditional monetary system and sovereign credit; on the other hand, it is also seen as an asset that has some "technological resonance" with high-growth tech assets—sharing a long-term bet on decentralization, open-source innovation, and computational power expansion. As inflation is no longer the sole source of fear and AI-driven deflation begins to dominate expectations, Bitcoin is assigned a new role of "retaining a reason for existence at both ends of inflation and deflation."

The Technological Tension Behind Legal Battles and Regulatory Races

The parallel development of AI and cryptocurrencies is not just a story of asset prices and narratives; they have become deeply embroiled in legal and regulatory tug-of-wars in the real world. The copyright disputes between the publishing industry and Google over AI training are a typical case of how technological revolutions tear apart established interest patterns. Publishing institutions, including Hachette and Cengage, argue that large models have crawled and utilized book and textbook content on a large scale without sufficient authorization, undermining the economic foundation of copyright holders; while technology platforms often defend themselves by emphasizing "fair use" and the public nature of data scraping, highlighting innovation costs and industry spillover effects. In this process, old rules are constantly questioned, and new rules are not fully formed in time, leading to an increasingly sharp structural contradiction where technology leads and law follows.

Similar tensions are also clearly visible in the regulation of cryptocurrencies. Taking Moldova as an example, this small country is advancing cryptocurrency legislation aligned with the EU's MiCA framework around 2026. According to briefings, its route can be summarized as a middle path of "legal to hold but not as a payment tool": on one hand, the legislation recognizes the legality of individuals and institutions holding cryptocurrencies, leaving room for them as investment products and asset allocation tools; on the other hand, it imposes restrictions in the payment and daily transaction fields to avoid direct competition with the national fiat currency in monetary functions. This compromise stance is essentially a pragmatic response to the misalignment between technology and regulation: unable to deny the existence of cryptocurrency technology and markets, it can only reduce systemic shocks by limiting usage scenarios. When placing the AI copyright dispute alongside Moldova's cryptocurrency route, a clear thread emerges: whether in model training or on-chain assets, technology is racing ahead of real-world institutions, and global regulation is forced into a long-term race of "catch up even if we can't keep up."

The Slow Migration from Marginal Asset to Systemic Option

Continuing to look at examples like Moldova, one can more clearly see the path of Bitcoin's migration from "systemic outsider" to "systemic tool." For these economies, finding a balance between major powers is a survival norm, and the same applies to cryptocurrencies: on one end is the desire for innovation and capital inflow, while on the other is the concern for monetary sovereignty and financial stability. Moldova's choice to align with European standards through MiCA-style legislation, recognizing the legality of holding but restricting its use as a payment tool, is a typical middle path—neither fully banning like some countries nor heading towards extreme "nationalization" or "fiatization."

In contrast, major countries around the world often present more pronounced polarities in their cryptocurrency policies: some emphasize strict regulation or even approach zero tolerance, while others are more aggressive in institutional participation and market infrastructure development. Against this backdrop, countries that adopt moderate solutions provide institutional investors with a gradually clearer compliance boundary. Once the basic framework of "can hold, can account, can be included in the investment portfolio, but cannot casually replace fiat currency payments" is solidified, risk control departments have a basis to rely on, allowing them to design products and risk parameters within clear regulatory red lines, making it easier for high-volatility assets like Bitcoin to enter compliant asset allocation lists. From a narrative perspective, this means that Bitcoin no longer exists solely in a "confrontational system" posture; it is being incorporated into the collection of institutional options by various countries at different speeds and paths—even if this incorporation is achieved through layers of constraints and compromises. For long-term investors, this migration from the margins to the system often holds more decisive significance than short-term price fluctuations.

Winners and Losers in the Bet on the AI Deflation Era

Reconnecting the above threads reveals that AI deflation, economic rebound, and Bitcoin's non-correlation are not isolated stories but a chain reaction. The cost collapse driven by AI constitutes the technical foundation of deflation expectations, while ARK's optimism emphasizes that this will coexist with economic rebound rather than lead to a classic deflationary recession. In this setting, the traditional 60/40 paradigm faces a triple challenge from high inflation, high interest rates, and technological disruption, forcing asset allocation to seek new diversification tools. Bitcoin, with its fixed supply and lower correlation with traditional assets, is packaged as a component that can enhance unit risk-return in portfolios, slowly migrating from a systemic outsider to a systemic option in the small country experiments and major power games under gradually clarifying regulations. If ARK's optimistic path ultimately receives validation from real data, Bitcoin could become a symbolically significant intersection: on one side, the productivity dividends and tech capitalization wave brought by AI; on the other, the long-term fissures faced by fiat currency systems and sovereign credit, embodying both a bet on the future of technology and a reflection of expectations for the reconstruction of monetary order.

For investors standing at the beginning of 2026, the more realistic question is not to provide a final judgment but to dynamically test this new narrative. On an observable level, macro data remains the first layer of signals: whether price trends are gradually moving towards technology-driven deflation as ARK suggests, and whether growth maintains resilience under pressure. The second layer is the evolution of AI regulation and copyright rules, which will determine the speed of technological diffusion and profit structures. The third layer is the implementation of "MiCA system" legislation, including that of Moldova—whether compliance boundaries are clear and cross-border collaboration is enhanced, directly affecting the allocation limits of institutions towards assets like Bitcoin. Only by keeping these three threads on the radar can one see through the fog of AI deflation to identify which assets are truly long-term beneficiaries and which are merely magnifiers of short-term emotions and liquidity.

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