Last night's initial jobless claims for the week fell short of market expectations, indicating that the labor market remains resilient and showing signs of stabilization. At the same time, several Federal Reserve officials signaled a pause in interest rate cuts during their speeches, with an overall hawkish tone, leading to a noticeable cooling of market expectations for short-term easing. Against this backdrop, the cryptocurrency market faced short-term pressure and weakened, with Bitcoin continuing its intraday correction, dipping to around 95,100 in the early morning; Ethereum also weakened, falling to around 3,280, effectively erasing the rebound space from the previous U.S. trading session.
From a macro perspective, the current market still sees a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in January. The initial claims data alleviated concerns about worsening employment, providing the Fed with the confidence to remain "on hold." Coupled with the collective hawkish stance of high-ranking officials, short-term liquidity expectations have been repressed, leading to a cooling of risk asset sentiment, with the crypto market naturally being the first to feel the impact, entering a phase of profit-taking and correction.
On the technical front, Bitcoin's daily chart recorded its first bearish candle after several consecutive bullish days, signaling a potential short-term top; the four-hour MACD has formed a death cross and is beginning to expand below the zero line, while the RSI has clearly turned downward from the overbought zone, indicating a weakening momentum. This suggests that the current movement is more of a corrective pullback after a rebound rather than a continuation of a strong trend.
However, it is important to note that the current price has retraced to near the four-hour mid-band, and short-term support is expected. The weak volume on the hourly chart also shows signs of slowing down, indicating that a rebound confirmation may occur first before continuing to face downward pressure.
In terms of trading strategy, the focus today should be on the strength of the rebound. Key short-term resistance levels to watch are the hourly mid-band at 96,300 and the rebound high from last night around 97,000; these two levels are typical areas of resistance for rebounds. On the downside, short-term support is near the four-hour mid-band around 94,800. If this level is lost, the pullback space will further open up, and the price may re-test the upper boundary of the previous range at 94,000–93,000. This range is very critical; if it cannot be effectively defended, it would mean that this round of rebound is basically over, and the market will return to the previous consolidation range, continuing a weak consolidation pattern.
Regarding Ethereum, it appears slightly more stable than Bitcoin, but the overall rhythm is still weak. The momentum of the high-level rebound has significantly weakened over the past two days, with the daily chart closing bearish and the four-hour MACD also weakening, indicating a phase of correction after a lackluster rebound. Today, the focus should be on the strength of support around the four-hour mid-band at 3,270. If this level is lost, the pullback will significantly strengthen, and the lower support will test the 3,200–3,150 area; on the upside, short-term resistance still focuses on the rebound high around 3,370–3,400 from the past two days, where selling pressure is heavy, and it should be treated as resistance until effectively broken.
In summary, both Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently in a phase of macro pressure combined with technical correction, with the overall rhythm leaning towards pressured repair rather than trend continuation. It is not advisable to chase long positions; it is more suitable to wait for a second confirmation after the rebound faces pressure or to make decisions based on the loss or gain of key support levels.
Tonight, several Federal Reserve officials will speak during the U.S. trading session, and their statements will continue to influence market pricing expectations for interest rate cuts. Short-term emotional fluctuations may increase, so it is essential to pay close attention and manage position risks.
This article is exclusively contributed by Jian Crypto (follow the official account: Jian Crypto) and represents personal views. Due to the timing of the article's release, the above views or suggestions may not be timely and are for reference only; risks are borne by the reader. Trade with reasonable position control, and avoid heavy or full positions. Developing good investment habits is essential for a positive cycle!
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