The cryptocurrency market has entered a narrow range over the weekend, with volatility continuing to shrink, and both bulls and bears are maintaining a cautious wait-and-see attitude. After Bitcoin faced resistance and fell back around 92,000 early Saturday morning, it oscillated around the 90,700 line throughout the weekend; Ethereum's movement was highly correlated, briefly rising to around 3,150 before subsequently falling back to hover around 3,100, overall lacking clear directional guidance. The current core contradiction in the market lies in the insufficient bullish momentum following the release of non-farm payroll data, while the intensive statements from Federal Reserve executives this week will be a key variable in breaking the stalemate.

On the macro level, the U.S. non-farm employment data released last Friday evening underperformed expectations, directly altering the market's expectations for Federal Reserve policy. Following the data release, the market priced in a 96% probability that the Federal Reserve would maintain the current interest rate in January, temporarily entering a "calm period" regarding easing expectations. As a result, Bitcoin not only lost the core logic for bullish support, but on-chain buying also remained weak, with large capital inflow intentions low, making it difficult to push prices through key resistance areas, which is also the core reason for the weekend's sideways movement.

Today, Monday, Bitcoin and Ethereum have slowly risen again in the morning, but from a technical perspective, both cryptocurrencies exhibit characteristics of "effective support but insufficient momentum." For Bitcoin, the daily price has consistently found support at the mid-band level, indicating that this area has a certain degree of capital support, but the trading volume continues to shrink, reflecting low market participation willingness; the four-hour Bollinger Bands are flattening, and the moving average system is intertwined, showing a typical sideways consolidation pattern. However, the MACD indicator is in a state of expansion, suggesting the possibility of a rebound and correction during the day. It should be noted that against the backdrop of overall weak momentum, the rebound strength is likely to be limited. For intraday operations, the short-term resistance to watch above is the 92,000 level; if this area can be broken with increased volume, prices are expected to strengthen and test the resistance in the 93,000-94,000 area again. The support below focuses on the 90,000 round number and the 89,000 previous low area, as these two positions are important dividing lines for the short-term trend.

Ethereum's technical pattern is similar to Bitcoin's, with the daily level continuing to consolidate near the mid-band support, and the MACD indicator is operating with reduced volume, indicating insufficient rebound momentum; although the MACD on the four-hour level is slowly expanding, the rebound momentum still needs further observation. From the trend perspective, even if a rebound occurs during the day, it is likely to face pressure. The short-term resistance above focuses on the 3,150 and 3,200 levels, as these two areas are key pressure points from previous rebounds, and a breakthrough requires volume support; the short-term support below focuses on the 3,060 level, while the 3,000 round number serves as an important psychological defense line, which must be defended as a core area; if lost, it may trigger a larger pullback.

In summary, the current market is in a "vacuum period" following the release of non-farm data, lacking clear driving logic, and the sideways consolidation pattern may continue in the short term. The most critical variable this week is the intensive statements from Federal Reserve executives, as their remarks will directly impact the market's expectations for future interest rate cuts, thereby breaking the current equilibrium state. It is recommended to maintain a focus on range-bound fluctuations in operations, avoiding blind chasing of highs and lows during the consolidation, while paying close attention to the gains and losses of key support and resistance levels for both cryptocurrencies, and closely tracking the impact of Federal Reserve-related remarks on market sentiment.

This article is exclusively contributed by Jane Crypto (WeChat public account: Jane Crypto) and represents personal views only. Due to the timing of the article's release, the above views or suggestions may not be timely and are for reference only; risks are borne by the reader. Manage positions reasonably in trading, and avoid heavy or full positions. Developing good investment habits is essential for a positive cycle!

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