Last week's focus: Capital shift, continued volatility, opportunities and outlook —

1️⃣ Continued Volatility:

The core contradiction in the crypto market over the past week lies not in sentiment, but in the capital structure: The decline in $BTC and $ETH is mainly due to the continued net outflow from spot ETFs, indicating that we are still in a phase of volatility.

2️⃣ Institutional Performance:

Selling pressure is highly concentrated on high-fee/old products (GBTC, FBTC, ETHE), while BlackRock's IBIT and ETHA continue to see net inflows, suggesting that institutions have not exited but are merely reallocating.

3️⃣ SOL as the Relatively Strongest Narrative Carrier:

Against the backdrop of net outflows from BTC/ETH ETFs, SOL ETFs have seen continuous net inflows, combined with the new packaging of "ETF + Staking Returns" that can be understood by traditional capital.

4️⃣ Ethereum Opportunities:

Ethereum's scaling is transitioning from roadmap to parameter implementation (blob capacity increase). While this may not immediately reflect in prices, it will reshape the L2 cost curve and DA narrative in the medium term.

5️⃣ The Most Important Trading Clue Currently:

Monitor whether ETF outflows are exhausting + whether SOL continues to attract incremental capital.

6️⃣ Macro and Geopolitical Factors as "Volatility Amplifiers":

Employment/interest rate expectations and tail risks like the Venezuela incident will amplify pullbacks and spikes during weekends and low liquidity periods, but they resemble disturbances rather than trends themselves.

7️⃣ Opportunity Window:

If in the next one to two weeks, the total outflow from BTC/ETH ETFs significantly converges or even turns positive, while SOL ETFs maintain net inflows, a structural market trend may emerge where "capital first pulls strong relative assets, then replenishes mainstream assets." This presents a relative strength/rotation opportunity with a higher win rate than simply betting on direction.

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