Qinglan Crypto Class is starting! BTC's four cycles + dual perspectives on news, guiding you to step in sync with the crypto market rhythm.
Technical multi-cycle structure analysis
I. Short-term structure (15-minute chart)
Price pattern: After rebounding from yesterday's low around 90500, a wide-ranging oscillating upward structure has emerged, but the rebound highs are increasingly constrained (91100-91300 area). Currently, the price is repeatedly testing the resistance near 91100, with the lows gradually rising to 90700, forming a converging oscillation.
Indicator status:
Moving average system: MA5 and MA10 have golden crossed below the zero axis, indicating a short-term bullish momentum.
MACD: Golden cross below the zero axis, red turning green, but the amplitude of the histogram is limited, indicating weak rebound momentum.
RSI: Located in the 50-60 range, not entering the strong zone, reflecting insufficient bullish sustainability.
Key observation point: Whether the price can increase volume and stabilize above 91300 to confirm a breakout from the short-term oscillation range.
II. Mid-term structure (1-hour & 4-hour chart)
Price pattern:
The 1-hour level is oscillating within the 90500-91500 box, continuing for over 24 hours, with converging fluctuations.
Since the low of 90300 on January 10, the 4-hour level has repeatedly tested the 91500-92000 pressure zone without success, forming a low-level consolidation platform.
Indicator status:
1-hour chart: MA20 is flat, with the price fluctuating around it; MACD is near the zero axis, with the histogram close to zero, showing a typical oscillating pattern.
4-hour chart: The moving averages are highly correlated (MA5/10/20), with the price entangled; MACD shows a potential bottom divergence structure (price not breaking previous lows, indicator lows rising), which could form a bullish signal if there is subsequent volume increase.
Key node: 91500 is the dividing line between bulls and bears; a breakout could open up upward space.
III. Long-term structure (daily chart)
Trend positioning: Still in a downward channel since the high of 94789 on January 5, currently operating between MA10 (91553) and MA20 (89791), with MA20 providing support as it turns upward, while MA10 forms resistance.
Indicator status:
MACD: Death cross above the zero axis, but the green histogram is shortening, indicating weakening downward momentum.
RSI: Located at 54, neutral to weak, not showing strong reversal power.
Overall assessment: The daily level is a weak repair within a downward trend; a reversal requires the price to effectively break through the 92500-93000 area.
Market drivers and sentiment integration
Bullish factors:
Institutional behavior: MicroStrategy continues to signal increased holdings, and institutions like Bitmine are increasing ETH staking, reflecting long-term allocation demand.
Narrative expectations: Topics like the "super cycle" and potential entry of giants (like Musk) support sentiment.
Ecosystem progress: X platform integrates crypto functions, and Solana connects with X App, lowering usage barriers and promoting application penetration.
Bearish/risk factors:
Whale movements: Bitfinex whales are accelerating the closure of long positions, which may indicate short-term profit-taking and directional shifts.
On-chain anomalies: Ancient miner addresses moving 2000 BTC increase market supply uncertainty.
Sentiment indicators: The market is generally in a wait-and-see state, with clear tug-of-war between bulls and bears, and warnings of potential trend changes are rising.
Comprehensive sentiment judgment: The market is in a balanced phase of intertwined bullish and bearish information, lacking clear one-way drivers, with short-term sentiment being neutral to cautious.
Trading strategy and risk control
Key price levels
Resistance zone: 91500 (upper edge of oscillation/moving average dense area), 92000-92500 (previous platform/daily MA10).
Support zone: 90500-90700 (lower edge of oscillation), 90000 (psychological level/daily MA20), 89500 (strong structural support).
Strategy deployment
Range trading (short-term)
Short position opportunity: If the price rebounds to around 91500 and stagnates, take a light short position, stop loss at 91800, target 90800-90500.
Long position opportunity: If the price stabilizes after a pullback to 90500-90700, take a light long position, stop loss at 90200, target 91200-91500.
Note: Quick in and out, suitable for oscillating markets.
Breakout following (medium-short term)
Upward breakout: If the price increases volume and stabilizes above 91500, it is considered a confirmation of the 4-hour bottom divergence, and long positions can be followed, targeting 92500-93500.
Downward breakdown: If the price breaks below 90500 with volume, the oscillating structure is damaged, and short positions can be taken in the direction of the trend, targeting 90000-89500.
Trend position (medium-long term)
Wait for a clear trend reversal signal at the daily level (such as a closing price breaking above 93000 and stabilizing) before considering positioning for long trend trades.
Risk management
Control total position to within 30%, with a single stop loss not exceeding 2% of the principal.
Breakout trends need to be confirmed with volume to avoid false breakout traps.
Pay attention to whale address movements, fluctuations in US stocks, and the impact of macro data on market risk appetite.
For more quantitative breakdowns of how real-time news affects market sentiment, updates are available on my Qinglan Crypto Class, qinglan.org. Finally, Sister Qinglan leaves you with a trading quote: Trading is not about betting on direction, but about placing bets when a probability advantage appears and exiting before risks spiral out of control. Patience in waiting for the market to deal you cards is more important than rushing to guess the bottom or top. Alright, that's all for today's market analysis; let's stay attentive, and if there are any anomalies during the session, we will communicate promptly!
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