A ruling from the Supreme Court may put the U.S. government under pressure to refund trillions in tariffs, a decision concerning presidential trade authority that has global markets holding their breath.
Just after the New Year in 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court announced it would rule on the Trump administration's tariff case on January 9. This ruling will directly affect the legality of the massive tariffs imposed by the U.S. government on goods from multiple countries around the world.
Internal estimates from the U.S. Treasury Department indicate that if the ruling is unfavorable to the government, the amount of tariffs collected could reach $750 billion to $1 trillion by June 2026, and the Treasury may be forced to refund about half of that.
1. Focus of the Event: Legal Challenges and Potential Refunds
The Supreme Court's ruling stems from the Trump administration's appeal against a decision from the Federal Circuit Court of Appeals. Previously, a lower court ruled that President Trump's unprecedented legal use exceeded his authority.
● The key issue is whether the Trump administration's imposition of tariffs on goods from multiple countries around 2018, under the pretext of addressing a so-called "national emergency," was legal according to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977.
● U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has warned that if the Supreme Court issues an unfavorable ruling, the Treasury "will have to refund about half of the tariffs." She estimates that if the ruling is delayed until June 2026, the total amount of tariffs to be refunded could reach $750 billion to $1 trillion, causing "serious chaos."
2. Market Impact: The Macro Transmission Chain in the Crypto Market
The tariff ruling will impact the crypto market through multiple channels, with the core transmission mechanism illustrated in the diagram below:
Based on historical experience, such policy uncertainty itself is a destructive force in the market. WTO Director-General Okonjo-Iweala has pointed out that tariff uncertainty puts continuous pressure on business confidence, investment, and supply chains, making it one of the most destructive forces in the trade environment.
3. Differentiated Impact on Crypto Asset Categories
Regardless of the above scenarios, the impact on different assets within the crypto market will be differentiated rather than uniform.
- Mainstream Coins (BTC, ETH): The "Ballast" and "Barometer" in Turbulence
a. Bitcoin will play a core role. In the market panic triggered by a ruling deemed "illegal," BTC may drop in the short term due to liquidity shocks. However, its long-term narrative as "digital gold" will be tested—if the market interprets it as a sign of U.S. fiscal discipline being compromised and long-term dollar credit issues, BTC may recover from the crash the fastest and become an alternative store of value sought by funds. History shows that during periods of geopolitical or trade tension, funds often flow into Bitcoin as a hedge.
b. Ethereum and other mainstream coins will follow BTC's fluctuations, but their rebound strength may depend on the overall recovery of market risk appetite. In a favorable scenario where policy uncertainty decreases, they will directly benefit from the rebound in market risk appetite.
- Specific Tracks and Altcoins: Increased Volatility, Opportunities and Risks Coexist
a. RWA (Real World Assets), cross-border payments, and other tracks: Their narratives are directly related to the smoothness of global trade and capital flows. If the ruling outcome (such as deemed legal or status quo maintained) is seen as stabilizing the trade environment, the tokens in these tracks may gain stronger fundamental narrative support.
b. High Beta Altcoins: When the market's risk appetite surges due to positive news (such as a ruling deemed legal), liquidity may flow into these high-volatility assets, leading to short-term surges. Conversely, during market panic, they will also face more severe sell-offs, with declines far exceeding those of mainstream coins.
c. AI + Blockchain, chain games, and other ecologically supported tracks: Some analysts believe that during a period of policy easing or after market sentiment stabilizes, these tracks with practical application prospects may gain more attention and funding, moving independently of the broader market.
4. Institutional Perspectives: The Bull-Bear Tug of War in the Crypto Market
There is significant divergence in analysis within the crypto market regarding the upcoming ruling. Some viewpoints echo Wimar.X's warning, suggesting this could be the "worst day for the market." However, more professional institutions provide analyses from different dimensions.
Renowned analyst Tom Lee views this as a potential "reverse signal." Charles Hoskinson, founder of Cardano, is more optimistic, believing that the tariff issue will ultimately become hollow, and the market will adapt to a new normal, subsequently welcoming a wave of funding.
5. Investment Strategies: Responses in a Complex Environment
In the face of highly uncertain ruling outcomes and differentiated market expectations, crypto investors may consider the following thoughts:
First, be wary of short-term emotional traps. The movements in the crypto market are deeply anchored to global liquidity expectations and macroeconomic data. Policy news can easily create false breakouts, so it is advisable to avoid simply chasing highs and lows. Market makers may use rebound opportunities to sell off.
Second, focus on core assets and structural opportunities. When the market swings, funds often treat mainstream assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum as safe havens. Gradually building positions in spot rather than leveraged contracts is more prudent. Attention can also be given to tracks with real ecological support, such as AI + blockchain.
Finally, understand the changes in market phases. The crypto market in 2026 is transitioning from narrative-driven to structural maturity. The improvement of regulatory frameworks may attract trillions in institutional funds. This means that long-term impacts may far exceed short-term price fluctuations.
6. Industry Outlook: Long-term Narratives Beyond the Ruling
Regardless of the ruling outcome on Friday, the development trajectory of the crypto industry has shown stronger independence. Several major trends in 2026 will build a more solid foundation than a single macro event:
First, institutionalization of regulation and mainstreaming of assets. With the implementation of the U.S. "GENIUS" and "CLARITY" bills, the industry will enter a golden period dominated by rules. Bitcoin is experiencing reduced volatility, evolving into a global non-sovereign reserve asset.
Second, stablecoins and RWA building a practical foundation. The annual settlement volume of stablecoins is expected to surpass Visa, becoming the core global clearing network. The market size of tokenized real-world assets is expected to exceed $500 billion.
Third, products shifting from speculative tools to financial infrastructure. Perpetual contracts are becoming the core price discovery mechanism. Prediction markets are evolving from niche tools to event-based financial infrastructure.
In the Supreme Court's chamber, judges are deliberating the wording of the ruling. On the trading screens of the crypto world, both bulls and bears are poised for action.
Wall Street analysts are reviewing historical volatility data, trying to find patterns. The true winners may not be those who predict the most accurately, but those who can grasp the rope named "practical value" amid dramatic structural changes.
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