Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Golem (@web3golem)_

"Before 2026, the Jesuits will return to the world."

If you don't believe this in 2025, then you once had the opportunity to invest based on this "cognition" and outperform U.S. Treasury bonds.

The contract on the prediction market Polymarket regarding "Will Jesus Christ return to the world in 2025?" attracted about $3.3 million in funding before its settlement on December 31, 2025, with the probability of Jesus' return remaining above 3% for a long time. Since the event was ultimately determined to be "no," participants who bet "no" at the peak in April effectively earned about 5.5% annualized returns, even outperforming the yield on U.S. Treasury bonds (approximately 4.1% for the 10-year bond by the end of 2025).

After hearing this news, if you are slapping your thigh for missing this "risk-free" investment opportunity, then your thigh will surely enjoy this article, as Odaily Planet Daily will list 10 similar "risk-free" investment opportunities in prediction markets below.

These opportunities can be easily determined to be almost "risk-free" with some common sense. Of course, nothing is absolute; unexpected events are one aspect, and how UMA determines disputed results is another. So I can only put "risk-free" in quotes.

Today, there are over 20,000 unsettled event contracts on Polymarket. Finding these "risk-free" event contracts is not easy, but with suitable screening criteria, the task can still be accomplished. Odaily has established three criteria in this article:

• Contract order book depth exceeds $3,000, excluding sports-related contracts (which often have dark horses);
• The probability of the contract being "Yes" or "No" is between 90%-99% (theoretically, the more certain an event is in the prediction market, the higher the probability);
• The likelihood of a black swan event is low (from a common sense perspective).

Will Jesus return to the world before 2027?

• Event contract link: https://polymarket.com/event/will-jesus-christ-return-before-2027?tid=1767609729629
• Buy "no" investment return: 2-3%
• Settlement time: December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM (Eastern Time)

As a non-believer, I truly feel that Jesus' return to the world is just a biblical story. The settlement rule for this event is simply "the second coming of Jesus Christ occurs," with no other additional conditions. Jesus' return is based on the messianic prophecies in the canonical gospels: two thousand years ago, Jesus "came to" the world for the first time, completed the work of redemption, and ascended to heaven, while believers believe he will return to the world at some point in the future.

However, there are also views that Jesus' return refers to the spiritual manifestation of Jesus, where someone will reform Christianity and establish a new ideological system, at which point all religions will face a serious crisis. But the probability of such a great figure appearing this year is also quite low, right?

Will the U.S. confirm the existence of aliens before 2027?

• Event contract link: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-confirm-that-aliens-exist-before-2027?tid=1767610632144
• Buy "no" investment return: 6-7%
• Settlement time: December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM (Eastern Time)

With the development of human technology and exploration of the universe, we increasingly believe that there are other intelligent beings in the universe besides humans, but there is still no obvious evidence to prove it. The determination rule for this event contract requires a clear statement from the U.S. President, any cabinet member, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any U.S. federal agency declaring the existence of alien life or technology, based on official statements. Therefore, while we may all believe in aliens, it is also possible that U.S. authorities have already contacted aliens, but public disclosure is an entirely different matter. The combination of various conditions makes the probability of this event occurring even smaller.

Will there be a civil war in the U.S. before 2027?

• Event contract link: https://polymarket.com/event/us-civil-war-before-2027?tid=1767611124616
• Buy "no" investment return: 4-5%
• Settlement time: December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM (Eastern Time)

Historically, the U.S. has only had one true civil war, which was the American Civil War (also known as the War Between the States) from 1861 to 1865. This civil war was the largest and most decisive in U.S. history, with the combatants being the Northern United States (the Union) and the Southern United States (the Confederacy).

Although the U.S. still faces ongoing internal issues today, and conflicts between the two parties occasionally occur, they have not escalated to the level of civil war, and there are currently no social, economic, or political signs indicating that the U.S. will experience a civil war within a year.

Will U.S. national debt reach $39 trillion before 2027?

• Event contract link: https://polymarket.com/event/peak-us-national-debt-before-2027?tid=1767611508991
• Buy "yes" for $39 trillion investment return: 1-2%
• Settlement time: December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM (Eastern Time)

U.S. national debt has been rising every year since 1958, and by 2025, it will have increased for 68 consecutive years. As of December 31, 2025, the total federal debt of the United States is $38.51 trillion, currently just about $485.9 billion away from $39 trillion. In 2025, the net increase in U.S. debt is $2.23 trillion, and at this rate, it is very likely that the total federal debt will rise to $40 trillion in 2026.

Although the rate may slow down this year, reaching $39 trillion can be considered a certainty, unless there is an extremely unusual and sustained fiscal surplus or a large one-time cash inflow, which is almost impossible in reality.

Will the U.S. experience a debt default before 2027?

• Event contract link: https://polymarket.com/event/us-defaults-on-debt-by-2027?tid=1767612065804
• Buy "no" investment return: 4-5%
• Settlement time: December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM (Eastern Time)

Historically, the U.S. has "defaulted" on its debt twice: the first time shortly after its founding in 1790, and the second time during the War of 1812 when British forces captured Washington and burned the U.S. Treasury, destroying bond records, which prevented the federal government from repaying its debts on time.

In modern times, the U.S. has not experienced any debt defaults. Although U.S. debt has been increasing year after year, the U.S. has also been raising the debt ceiling annually, allowing the government to continue borrowing to pay off debts. From another perspective, in the modern global economic system, if the U.S. were to actually default on its debt, it would mean the bankruptcy of U.S. national credit, severely impacting the U.S. monetary system and potentially triggering the most severe financial crisis in history. If such a thing were to happen this year, what would our losses in the prediction market even amount to?

Will Trump resign as president on March 31?

• Event contract link: https://polymarket.com/event/trump-out-as-president-by-march-31?tid=1767612762887
• Buy "no" investment return: 2-3%
• Settlement time: March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM (Eastern Time)

Compared to other "risk-free" investment opportunities, the possibility of Trump resigning before March 31 seems greater, mainly due to the recent discontent caused by his actions against Maduro. However, the determination rule for this event contract states that Trump must resign, be permanently removed, or otherwise (e.g., death) no longer serve as President of the United States for it to count as "yes." Temporary removal or impeachment without removal does not count.

This settlement condition makes the event even less likely to occur. First, Trump is unlikely to resign voluntarily. Although he does have health issues (it has been reported that he is taking medication), it is unlikely that he won't make it past March 31.

Who will be the world's richest person on December 31, 2026?

• Event contract link: https://polymarket.com/event/richest-person-on-december-31-2026?tid=1767613303753
• Buy "Elon Musk" investment return: 9-10%
• Settlement time: December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM (Eastern Time)

By 2026, Musk will have been the richest person for five years (despite some fluctuations during that time). Musk first became the world's richest person in 2021, surpassing Jeff Bezos with his wealth from Tesla. Currently, Musk's net worth exceeds $610 billion, while the second richest person, Larry Page, has a net worth of $269 billion, which is more than a one-time difference from Musk.

While the net worth of billionaires can fluctuate by tens of billions, closing a gap of several hundred billion is quite challenging.

Will the Bitcoin network replace the SHA-256 algorithm before 2027?

• Event contract link: https://polymarket.com/event/will-bitcoin-replace-sha-256-before-2027?tid=1767613902697
• Buy "no" investment return: 4-5%
• Settlement time: December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM (Eastern Time)

The SHA-256 algorithm is one of the core algorithms of the Bitcoin network and is the basis of the proof-of-work (PoW) mechanism. Under this algorithm, miners continuously adjust the nonce in the block header to calculate the double SHA256 hash until they find a hash that meets the difficulty target. The first miner to complete this task receives a certain Bitcoin reward, while the algorithm maintains a block time of around 10 minutes through dynamic difficulty adjustment. The existence of this algorithm provides the Bitcoin network with a consensus mechanism for verifying transactions and preventing double spending.

The SHA-256 algorithm is to the Bitcoin network what a constitution is to a nation; it defines who has the right to keep the ledger (through competitive computing power), how to verify transactions (the integrity of the hash chain), and how to reach consensus (the longest chain principle).

On December 9, 2025, Google released the groundbreaking quantum chip Willow, which sparked anxiety in the crypto industry about whether Bitcoin's cryptographic technology would soon be attacked by quantum computers.

As a result, there have been proposals to replace Bitcoin's SHA-256 algorithm, but the likelihood is very low. First, the threat of quantum computers to the Bitcoin network is still in the realm of alarmism. Second, upgrades to the Bitcoin network are extremely slow and cautious, especially for such a core algorithm as SHA-256, which cannot be replaced in a short time.

Will the EU dissolve before 2027?

• Event contract link: https://polymarket.com/event/eu-dissolves-before-2027?tid=1767614994620
• Buy "no" investment return: 4-5%
• Settlement time: December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM (Eastern Time)

The settlement of this contract requires meeting one of the following rules:

1. More than half of the EU member states (as of the market creation date) formally exit the EU;
2. All EU member states formally abolish or repeal the Treaty on European Union or the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union through treaties or agreements;
3. The EU as a legal entity no longer exists.

In 2020, the UK announced its formal exit from the EU, making it the only sovereign nation to have officially left the EU to date, which was also the most significant event in the EU in recent years. The EU holds significant importance for Europe; historically, Europe has experienced very frequent wars (both World War I and World War II began in Europe), and the fragmented situation weakened the region's political power in the international arena, which is why European countries decided to establish the EU. In modern times, although there are internal contradictions within the EU, the benefits still outweigh the drawbacks, so the likelihood of dissolution within a year is very low.

Will Putin resign as President of Russia before the end of 2026?

• Event contract link: https://polymarket.com/event/putin-out-before-2027?tid=1767615486746
• Buy "no" investment return: 9-10%
• Settlement time: December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM (Eastern Time)

The determination rule for this contract states that if President Putin resigns, is detained, or otherwise (e.g., death) loses his position or is unable to fulfill his duties as President of Russia within the timeframe of this market, he will be considered removed.

In 2020, Russia passed a constitutional amendment, with the core change being the reset of term limits (previous presidential terms served by Putin no longer count towards term limits) and stipulating that the president can serve a maximum of two additional terms, each lasting six years.

On May 7, 2024, Putin was re-elected as President of Russia, with a term from 2024 to 2030, making 2026 the third year of his term. Although the recent event of the U.S. capturing the President of Venezuela has made us aware that a country's president can be detained by another country, given Russia's military strength and nationalism, such an event is unlikely to happen to Putin. Moreover, he is still in good health; at 73 years old, there have even been reports of him dating a girlfriend.

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