On January 3rd, Eastern Eight Time, the net inflow of US stock spot ETFs significantly slowed, and the Bitcoin price fell below the $100,000 mark again

On January 3rd, Eastern Eight Time, during the US stock trading session, the funding situation of Bitcoin spot ETFs showed a clear cooling, with the daily net inflow far below previous peaks, and market risk appetite also declined. Against the backdrop of weakened capital-driven momentum, the Bitcoin price once again fell below the $100,000 threshold during the session, triggering fluctuations in bullish sentiment. On the market, mainstream cryptocurrencies faced overall pressure, with some high-beta assets that had previously seen significant gains showing more pronounced pullbacks. This round of adjustment is viewed as the first "cooling period" following the ETF frenzy, prompting the market to reassess the sustainability of capital and the safety margin of valuations. Meanwhile, the leverage utilization in the derivatives market decreased, and the scale of liquidations expanded, further amplifying price volatility. This correction is not merely a technical adjustment but a systemic cooling resonating from macro expectations, ETF capital rhythms, and on-chain profit-taking, as investors shift from "blindly following ETF buying" to more cautious risk management and position control.

ETF capital flow shifts from "surge" to "slowdown," Bitcoin price oscillates at high levels

Data shows that the inflow rhythm of Bitcoin spot ETFs in the US stock market has shifted from a previous continuous high-intensity net buying to a more moderate state, with some trading days approaching a flat status. In previous trading days, the net inflow of some leading ETFs reached tens of billions of dollars in a single day, rapidly expanding the management scale and the number of held coins, amplifying the marginal buying power in the spot market. As the net inflow significantly slowed around January 3rd, the new buying from ETFs no longer created a sustained "accumulation gap" for the spot market, leading to repeated oscillations in the Bitcoin price from its high. In terms of price performance, after briefly surpassing $100,000, Bitcoin experienced several dips below this threshold due to weakened buying pressure and profit-taking by bulls, significantly widening the intraday volatility range. Meanwhile, the funding structure shifted from a previous "mainly one-sided net inflow" to a state of "coexisting inflows and redemptions," weakening the guiding influence of ETF capital behavior on prices, which became more of an amplifier for increased volatility. In this environment, even minor changes in short-term sentiment can lead to sharp price fluctuations, with high-level oscillations becoming the main theme of the current stage.

The cooling of ETF enthusiasm combined with macro and on-chain factors amplifies the overall magnitude of this round of correction

The recent decline of Bitcoin from above the $100,000 mark is not driven by a single factor but is the result of multiple variables evolving simultaneously. First, the inflow of ETF capital has retreated from peak levels, weakening the core incremental momentum that previously supported the rapid rise in spot prices, making capital-driven increases unsustainable. Second, in terms of the macro environment, the pace of declining inflation in the US, interest rate path expectations, and overall sentiment fluctuations in risk assets have collectively influenced the willingness of off-exchange institutions to allocate to high-volatility assets. When risk aversion rises or the duration of high interest rates is repriced, crypto assets often become one of the first sectors to be underweighted. Additionally, on-chain data shows that during the phase when Bitcoin broke through and hovered above $100,000, early holders and short-term profit-takers systematically released their holdings to the market, creating a persistent selling pressure wall. The timing of the slowdown in ETF capital inflow coincided with concentrated profit-taking on-chain and rising macro uncertainties, leading to a correction that is both deeper and faster than typical technical adjustments. This multi-factor resonance has caused the market to swiftly switch from previous one-sided optimism to a more complex and differentiated game pattern.

Divergence in market direction intensifies between bulls and bears after the "loss of speed" of ETFs

Surrounding the slowdown in ETF net inflows and Bitcoin's drop below $100,000, market opinions have quickly diverged. Optimists believe that the current cooling of capital resembles a necessary "speed bump" after a super-fast inflow and does not indicate a structural peak. They point out that since the launch of ETFs, there has still been a considerable cumulative net inflow, and the logic for traditional institutions and compliant capital to enter has not reversed; it has merely transitioned from a "scramble for shares" to a "allocation period," with short-term price corrections actually benefiting new capital to gradually build positions within a more reasonable valuation range. Meanwhile, some bulls emphasize that on-chain activity and the concentration of long-term holders' holdings remain in relatively healthy ranges, and the mid-to-long-term bull market structure has not been damaged. However, cautious or even bearish voices stress that the excessive expectations brought by the ETF's highlight moments are now backfiring on the market. Once capital inflows shift from "sustained high net buying" to "intermittent good and bad," the market will find that the story previously used to support valuations above $100,000 lacks real cash flow backing. The bearish camp also warns that the current high-level trapped positions combined with potential macro headwinds (such as interest rates remaining high longer than expected) could trigger a deeper price pullback. The stark opposition in interpretations of the marginal changes in ETFs has made it difficult for the market to form a unified direction in a short time.

In the short term, still anchored by marginal changes in capital; in the medium term, the key is whether ETFs can restart the wave of net inflows

Looking ahead, in the short term, Bitcoin prices are likely to continue oscillating around the $100,000 mark, with marginal changes in capital being the primary indicator for observing market direction. If, in the next few trading days, US stock spot ETFs can see a resurgence of substantial net inflows, even if the absolute scale is not as high as previous peaks, it would be enough to stabilize market sentiment. Coupled with the light position state after the clearing of derivatives leverage, prices may attempt to repair upwards again. Conversely, if ETFs continue to show sluggish performance or even intermittent net outflows, and on-chain profit-taking pressure remains unresolved, then the oscillation range of Bitcoin at high levels may shift downward, leading the market into a longer period of stock game phase. In the medium term, the institutionalized channel effect of ETFs has not changed; the key lies in whether traditional capital is willing to increase allocation ratios again after a new round of macro interest rate and risk appetite repricing. At this stage, investors need to focus more on the capital curve rather than a single price point, dynamically adjusting positions by tracking changes in ETF holdings, futures position structures, and on-chain capital flows, rather than making emotional decisions based solely on whether integer thresholds are broken.

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