Qinglan Crypto Class is starting! BTC's four cycles + dual perspective on news, guiding you to step in sync with the crypto market rhythm

From a technical perspective, let's first take a look at these cycles.

Short Cycle (15 minutes and 1 hour): On the 15-minute chart, we can see that BTC's price experienced a fierce surge around 08:00 this morning, directly reaching around 91600, but then entered a small range of 91100-91300 for consolidation. The red momentum bars of the MACD are shrinking, and the RSI has also retreated from the overbought zone, indicating that there is selling pressure above in the short term, and the bulls are somewhat exhausted, temporarily digesting the previous gains, which may require a slight pullback. However, when we extend to the 1-hour chart, we can see a clearer picture. The MA moving averages are still in a bullish arrangement, with the price firmly above the moving averages. The MACD's DIFF line and DEA line are both above the zero axis, and the DIFF line is above the DEA line, showing strong momentum after the golden cross. Although the RSI has also reached 72, indicating overbought conditions, there are no obvious divergence signals, so I believe the short-term pullback is more like a normal adjustment during the upward trend rather than a trend reversal.

Medium to Long Cycle (4 hours and 1 day): The 4-hour chart is undoubtedly showing an upward trend! The MA moving averages present a perfect, upward diverging bullish arrangement, and the price is far from the moving averages, indicating a very strong upward movement. The MACD's DIFF and DEA are both above the zero axis and are strongly moving upward, with the green momentum bars continuously expanding, indicating a very optimistic medium-term trend. The RSI has also reached 71, and although it is overbought, this strong upward movement may continue for a while. Looking at the daily chart, it is even more exciting! The downward trend since last November has recently been completely reversed. The MA moving averages have successfully formed a golden cross, creating a clear bullish arrangement, and the price has risen above all short-term and medium-term moving averages. The MACD's DIFF line is also about to (or has just) break through the DEA line to form a golden cross, and the red momentum bars are strongly expanding, which is a very strong long-term bullish signal! Most importantly, the daily RSI is still around 58, leaving a lot of room before reaching severe overbought conditions, indicating that BTC has significant upward potential in the long term, and this wave of market movement is far from over.

Alright, having discussed the technical aspects, let's also consider the news. Macroeconomically, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's comments on interest rate cuts are undoubtedly positive for our risk assets, boosting market confidence. Although Matrixport has warned of high volatility in 2026, this is more of a long-term risk alert, while short-term market sentiment remains optimistic. Within the crypto circle, news about Ethereum's ZKEVM, PeerDAS upgrades, and the reversal of staking queues are all positive signals for industry development, which will boost overall market confidence. Polymarket predicts an increased probability of Bitcoin reaching 100,000 in January, reflecting optimistic market sentiment. Of course, we also see that some whales are heavily shorting ETH and BTC, but this precisely indicates the market's long and short game, and they are currently in a floating loss state. If the price continues to rise, these shorts closing positions may actually become a driving force for short-term increases. Of course, we should also be aware of the regulatory risks of insider trading in the prediction market, but currently, it seems to have limited impact on the main BTC market.

Based on our analysis, my judgment is: Short-term (15 minutes/1 hour): The price is experiencing short-term fluctuations and slight pullback demand around 91600, which is a normal consolidation during the upward movement. Medium-term (4 hours): The strong upward trend is maintained, with strong bullish momentum being the decisive force in the current market. Long-term (1 day): The bottoming rebound pattern has been confirmed, and the overall trend has turned to a clear upward direction, with significant upward potential remaining in the future.

Key support levels: In the short term, we can pay attention to the support around 91000, which is the lower edge of the recent consolidation. Further down is the MA20 on the 1-hour chart, around 90300-90500. For the medium term, 90000 is an important psychological level and technical support. In the long term, the daily MA20 is around 88150-89000, which is a relatively solid support area. Key resistance levels: The first resistance in the short term is the recently touched high of 91600. If it breaks through and stabilizes effectively, there will be no significant historical resistance above, and the next major psychological level may be at 92000-93000, or even 95000 and 100000.

Trading strategy: Currently, BTC is overall in a strong upward cycle, especially the medium to long-term trend is very healthy. Short-term pullbacks are opportunities rather than risks; we can consider looking for entry opportunities in the short-term pullback to the 91000-91100 area. If it can further retrace to around 90500, that would be an excellent point for adding positions. Going long is the main theme, but we need to control our positions and be aware of the pullback risks brought by short-term overbought sentiment. If the price can strongly break through and stabilize at 91600, then the upward space will further open up. Overall, we should go with the trend and primarily buy on dips.

For more quantitative breakdowns of how real-time news affects market sentiment, it has been updated in my Qinglan Crypto Class, qinglan.org. Finally, Sister Qinglan leaves you with a trading quote: Trading is not about predicting the future, but about responding to the future.

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