Sisters, Happy New Year! Who is still watching the market during the holiday?~ The recent drop of Bitcoin from 110,000 has indeed made people anxious. However, after a careful look at the market and news, it seems that the short-term outlook isn't as scary as it appears, and there are even signs of a rebound. The big whales are secretly bottom-fishing, and the long-term narrative hasn't changed. Today, I want to share my thoughts and provide some reference for those feeling anxious, but remember, this is not investment advice!
Welcome to Qinglan's Crypto Class, today we will analyze BTC across four time frames, including the news aspect:
First, let's look at the technical side. From the daily chart perspective, the past month has actually formed a large consolidation bottoming structure. The price has retraced from the high of 110,000 in November, reaching a low of around 85,000, and currently, it is repeatedly testing the range of 87,000 to 89,000. The MA moving average system (5, 10, 20) has become highly intertwined, indicating that the long-term trend is choosing a direction. Although the MACD green bars are still below the zero line, they have started to slowly shorten, which is a good sign, indicating that the downward momentum is weakening. The key support on the daily chart is in the 86,500-87,200 range, which is a previous area of dense trading; the strong resistance above is at 89,500-90,500. If it can effectively break through, the rebound space on the daily chart will open up.
Next, looking at the 4-hour chart, the pattern is much clearer. We can clearly see that after a surge above 90,000 on December 29, the price quickly fell back, forming a "roller coaster" market. Currently, the price is oscillating within a narrower range of 87,500-88,500. The 4-hour MA moving averages are in a bearish arrangement (price is below the moving averages), but the MACD fast and slow lines (DIF and DEA) show signs of flattening or even a golden cross below the zero line, indicating a potential "bottom divergence" here—price has made a new low (recent low of 87,400), but the area and low of the MACD green bars are rising. This is a short-term bullish signal that needs to be closely monitored.
The 1-hour and 15-minute charts reveal more detailed short-term dynamics. On the 1-hour level, there was a significant volume drop last night (December 31), directly hitting around 87,400, but it was quickly pulled back, forming a "V-shaped" rebound prototype. Currently, the 1-hour chart is attempting to form a small double bottom, with the neckline around 88,000. The 15-minute chart shows that the price is oscillating between 87,600-88,000, with both bulls and bears fiercely contesting. The short-term resistance is at 88,000, and if broken, it looks towards 88,400; support is at 87,600, and if it breaks below, it may test 87,400 again.
Now, let's incorporate the news aspect, which makes it even more interesting. Today, the news is very dense, but the core logic can be summarized in two points: macro positives coexist with industry pains.
On the macro level, the outlook is warm: Gold has hit record highs, and historical experience shows this usually leads Bitcoin by about three months, which may indicate that a liquidity turning point is approaching (News 1, 11). The dollar has seen a significant annual drop (News 20), and Moody's predicts that the Federal Reserve may aggressively cut rates three times in the first half of 2026 (News 22), all of which create a potential easing environment for risk assets (including Bitcoin). Tether spent 785 million dollars buying Bitcoin at the end of the year (News 16), which is a solid signal of institutional bullishness.
There are disturbances within the industry: The Turkish exchange has been hacked again (News 6), suspected theft of market maker accounts has led to abnormal fluctuations in Meme coins (News 17, 28), and the Trust Wallet extension has been temporarily removed (News 8). These security incidents and chaotic situations will suppress market sentiment in the short term, causing some funds to remain cautious, explaining why Bitcoin's price still appears hesitant and volatile despite positive news.
Therefore, our comprehensive judgment and trading strategy emerge: Trend direction: Long-term (daily) is in the final stage of consolidation; medium-term (4-hour) is in a consolidation recovery after a decline, with a demand for a rebound due to bottom divergence; short-term (1-hour/15-minute) is in range oscillation, with direction pending a breakout. Key levels: The core support below is 87,400-87,600 (the dividing line for bulls and bears, cannot effectively break below); the key resistance above is 88,400-88,800 (breaking through opens up short-term rebound space). Trading strategy:
Aggressive traders: Can try to go long with a small position when the price retests the 87,600-87,700 area and a stabilization signal appears on the 15-minute chart (such as a long lower shadow, RSI bottom divergence), with a stop loss below 87,400, targeting first at 88,400, and if broken, looking at 89,000.
Conservative traders: Wait for the price to clearly break and stabilize above 88,400 (closing price on the 1-hour chart) before entering long positions, with a stop loss below 88,000, targeting the 89,500-90,000 area.
Risk warning: If the price effectively breaks below the 87,400 support, the short-term rebound structure may be damaged, and one should turn to a wait-and-see approach, with support looking towards 86,500.
For more quantitative breakdowns of how real-time news affects market sentiment, it has been updated in my Qinglan Crypto Class, qinglan.org. Finally, I leave you with a trading quote: Markets are born in despair, move forward in hesitation, and end in celebration. The current market is in a "hesitation" phase; we must see the dawn conveyed by gold and macro factors while also being wary of the pitfalls within the industry beneath our feet, manage risk well, and patiently wait for our own signal.
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