Recently, the public chain sector has witnessed a rare "divergence between volume and price": multiple L1 chains have seen their trading volume reach historical highs, yet the average Gas cost on the Ethereum mainnet has been compressed to around $0.17. This phenomenon breaks the traditional understanding that "increased trading volume inevitably leads to soaring Gas prices." Coupled with the rapid expansion of Layer 2 networks and alternative execution environments, it is reshaping the power structure of the entire settlement and execution layers. This article dissects on-chain trading volume, Gas structure, and capital migration, attempting to restore the key drivers and potential risks behind this structural change.

The Phenomenon of Record Trading Volume and Gas Dropping to $0.17

● High-intensity Volume on L1:
● Recently, several mainstream L1 networks (including Ethereum, Solana, etc.) have seen their daily on-chain transaction counts and interacting addresses approach or refresh historical highs, with total daily trading volume further elevated from the year's peak.
● In certain time windows, the total daily on-chain transactions have increased by several percentage points compared to the previous quarter's peak, indicating a broad recovery of on-chain activity, rather than being limited to a single ecosystem or protocol.

● Significant Decline in Ethereum Gas Costs:
● Against the backdrop of significantly increased trading volume, the average Gas fee on the Ethereum mainnet has been compressed to about $0.17 per transaction, a stark contrast to the previous congestion cycle where fees often reached several dollars or even tens of dollars, reflecting a magnitude-level reduction.
● The decline in Gas prices is not a short-term anomaly; rather, it has maintained a level of less than $1 during multiple high-load periods over the past while, indicating a fundamental change in the supply and demand structure.

● Volume-Price Divergence Becomes a New Normal Signal:
● Traditionally, an increase in on-chain trading volume is often accompanied by a sharp rise in Gas prices, whereas this round presents a combination of "high trading volume + low Gas," reflecting the strong suppression of mainnet fee curves by execution layer spillover and scaling technologies.
● This also means that the Ethereum mainnet is gradually transitioning from a "high-frequency trading venue" to a "high-value settlement layer," with high-frequency interactions being diverted to L2 and high-performance L1, while the mainnet primarily undertakes functions related to clearing, settlement, and high-value asset operations.

Transfer of Execution Layer and Reshaping of Ethereum's Role

● Execution Migrating from L1 to L2 and Other L1s:
● Recent on-chain data indicates that a large number of high-frequency, low-value interactions have migrated to Rollups, sidechains, and high-performance public chains, which have taken on the execution demands previously squeezed onto the mainnet through higher TPS and lower unit costs.
● The transaction counts and Gas consumption on L2 networks continue to rise, with some leading L2s' daily trading volumes now comparable to mainstream L1s, while their per-transaction costs are significantly lower than the mainnet, creating a clear attraction on the experience front.

● Ethereum Transitioning from "Execution Layer" to "Settlement Layer":
● As execution has been massively offloaded, the role of the Ethereum mainnet has become more focused on asset issuance, clearing, and secure settlement, with high-value DeFi operations, large asset migrations, and protocol-level governance transactions still concentrated on the mainnet.
● This has led to a qualitative change in the mainnet's transaction structure: the average economic value of a single transaction has significantly increased, while the unit Gas cost has decreased, reflecting a "heavy settlement, light execution" structural reshaping.

● Structural Reasons for Gas Dropping to $0.17:
● Supply Side: Ethereum has maintained a relatively smooth fee curve even during high-load periods through a series of scaling and protocol upgrades (including optimizations to calldata costs and execution efficiency), combined with more mature packaging and bidding mechanisms.
● Demand Side: A large number of NFT minting, GameFi interactions, and other low-value high-frequency transactions have migrated to L2 or other public chains, leading to a more concentrated demand structure on the mainnet focused on high-value transactions, thereby weakening the rigid pull on Gas prices.
● Competitive Pressure: The extremely low fees and high TPS offered by high-performance public chains create external options for users and developers, forcing the mainnet to reprice towards a more reasonable range in terms of fees and experience.

The Link Between Capital and Staking Behavior

● Capital Redistribution Between L1 and L2:
● With the expansion of L2 and the decline in Gas, capital has not only not withdrawn significantly but has instead undergone rebalancing and optimization of allocation between different layers: part of the liquidity continues to reside in L1 to gain security and asset aggregation advantages; another part migrates to L2 in pursuit of higher utilization efficiency and strategic returns.
● On-chain data indicates that the cross-chain bridges and Rollup funding channels within the Ethereum ecosystem have remained active recently, with increased frequency of capital migration across layers, suggesting that the market's use of the multi-layer structure has transitioned from a "trial period" to "normal operation."

● The Relationship Between Staking Behavior and Gas Decline:
● The overall staking scale remains high, with the amount of ETH in on-chain staking contracts continuing to stay in a historically relatively high range, and this locked-up capital has reduced the market circulation while also stabilizing some long-term funds through staking income.
● As Gas costs have been lowered, the attractiveness of short-term arbitrage strategies based on Gas income has diminished, making staking returns and protocol profit-sharing clearer long-term sources of income, driving some capital from short-term Gas arbitrage to holding and staking.

● The Implicit Message of Capital Structure:
● On one hand, the combination of high staking rates + low Gas + high trading volume indicates that the network can maintain security and activity under "high load + low cost," which forms positive feedback for long-term security budgets and economic models.
● On the other hand, the high-frequency rotation of capital between different layers and L1s amplifies the reliance on the security of cross-chain bridges and the stability of the settlement layer; if a certain layer or bridge encounters issues, the scale and complexity of the affected capital paths far exceed those of the previous cycle.

Impact on L1 Valuation and Competitive Landscape

● L1 Valuation Logic is Shifting from "Single Layer Gas Revenue" to "Multi-layer Ecological Value":
● In the context of low Gas fees and execution migration, valuing solely based on mainnet Gas revenue or single-layer TVL has become clearly distorted, and the market is beginning to consider more:
● Position and Security Premium of the Settlement Layer: Who is the ultimate clearing and security anchor of the multi-layer ecosystem?
● Cross-layer Capital and Flow Hub Capability: Who controls the most cross-chain bridges and liquidity entrances?
● Degree of Asset and Protocol Aggregation: The concentration of assets, protocols, and developers on that L1.

● Record Trading Volume but Low Gas, Dual Impact on Revenue and Valuation:
● Record trading volume theoretically can amplify total Gas consumption and destruction, helping to enhance the network's "economic activity" metrics; however, when the per transaction Gas price is compressed to around $0.17, even if the number of transactions hits a new high, the absolute revenue pull is not as intuitive as before.
● This forces the market to shift its valuation from the "high fee + low volume" old model to the "low fee + high volume" new model, focusing more on the network's carrying capacity, sustainability, and scalability for upper-layer applications and capital, rather than simply stacking fees.

● Competition Among L1s is Upgrading from "Performance Wars" to "Ecosystem Wars":
● High-performance L1s attract emerging applications and some high-frequency trading with lower fees and higher throughput, creating execution-side pressure on traditional mainnets.
● However, in terms of capital security and asset retention, mainstream L1s still hold advantages due to their security records, protocol depth, and asset scale. The focus of competition is shifting from single performance parameters to:
● Who can become the preferred settlement layer for more L2s, sidechains, and application chains?
● Who can build stronger protocol network effects and asset network effects under a multi-layer architecture?

Bullish and Bearish Views: Healthy Expansion or Structural Risks?

● Optimistic/Supporters: This is a Healthy Expansion and Maturity Signal
● Supporters argue that "record trading volume + Gas dropping to around $0.17" precisely indicates that the scaling route and multi-layer architecture are working:
● Users and applications gain low-cost high-frequency interaction experiences, the network's carrying capacity increases, and long-term activity and developer stickiness are enhanced.
● The mainnet's role has upgraded to a high-value settlement layer, avoiding falling back into the previous cycle's "high fees blocking + user loss" vicious cycle.
● High staking rates and the activity of the multi-layer ecosystem have diversified the network's security budget, no longer relying solely on high Gas fees for maintenance.

● Pessimistic/Opponents: Concerns Over Revenue Decline and Security Budget Pressure
● Cautious observers point out that persistently low Gas levels may lead to:
● Declines in protocol revenue and destruction, weakening the value support for underlying assets, which in turn affects the long-term enthusiasm of validators and stakers.
● As execution spills over to L2 and other L1s, the mainnet's direct control and bargaining power over users and developers decline, creating uncertainty about whether it can maintain its current settlement position in the long term.
● The multi-layer architecture and cross-chain bridges amplify system complexity; if a key component fails, it may transmit risks through multi-layer capital paths, triggering chain reactions.

Outlook: The Future of Public Chains in the New Normal of Low Gas

In the short term, the market will continue to focus on whether Ethereum's mainnet Gas costs can stabilize at low levels, the sustained expansion of L2 trading volumes and capital scales, and the ability of other high-performance L1s to meet execution demands. If the combination of "high trading volume + low Gas" can be maintained over a longer period and matched with robust staking and security budget mechanisms, then the valuation logic and competitive landscape of L1 under a multi-layer architecture will be thoroughly reshaped: the value of the settlement layer will derive more from its hub position and security endorsement within the entire network, rather than a single fee metric. Conversely, if Gas surges again or key aspects of the multi-layer architecture expose systemic risks, the current round of "low fees and high usage" prosperity may also be forced to reprice.

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