Recently, the price of Ethereum (ETH) has been fluctuating within the $2000-$3000 range, gradually converging into a medium-term triangular structure from a technical perspective, with volatility being continuously compressed. Spot trading volume has decreased, while open interest in options and perpetual contracts remains high, leading the market to view this structural "accumulation" as a prelude to the next round of intense volatility. Meanwhile, the expectation of the approval of ETH spot ETFs in the U.S. and the largest scale of staking lock-up since the mainnet launch, combined with the oscillation of macro liquidity and regulatory expectations, have become key catalysts for the evolution of the price structure.

Triangular Structure and Volatility Compression

● From the market structure perspective: Recently, the daily high points of ETH have gradually declined, while the low points have slowly risen, forming a clear price convergence range in terms of shape, with volatility at a relatively low level for the year, indicating that a mid-term directional choice is approaching.
● From the trading data perspective: The Research Brief points out that the daily trading volume of ETH spot has significantly declined compared to the peak in March, with some mainstream trading platforms experiencing a deep contraction in spot depth, but the total open interest in futures and options remains high, indicating that funds are expressing views more through derivatives rather than pushing trends in the spot market.
● From the leverage structure perspective: The brief shows that the concentration of contract positions on exchanges has increased, with the area of forced liquidations clustering near the current price, making it easy to trigger "chain liquidations + passive liquidations" that amplify volatility once the price breaks through the boundaries of the triangular structure.
● From the time dimension perspective: ETH has been in a triangular structure consolidation for several weekly candlesticks, with the consolidation period significantly longer than the same level of oscillation period in the second half of last year, and historical experience shows that prolonged low volatility compression often corresponds to subsequent more intense unilateral trends.
● From a horizontal comparison perspective: The brief notes that Bitcoin exhibited a similar structural convergence—breakout—acceleration in the first quarter of this year, and the current structural characteristics of ETH bear some resemblance to those of BTC at that time, serving as a basis for some funds to bet on the "catch-up + correction" rhythm misalignment.

Macroeconomic and Fundamental Resonance

● Macroeconomic liquidity: The Research Brief mentions that recent U.S. inflation and employment data have been fluctuating, with the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in the coming months oscillating, and the dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields rising in stages, putting pressure on the valuations of risk assets, including ETH.
● Regulatory expectations: The brief points out that U.S. regulators are still negotiating the classification of crypto assets and the compliance framework for trading platforms, and some law enforcement actions targeting Ethereum ecosystem projects have intensified short- to medium-term uncertainty. However, at the same time, the expectation of ETH spot ETF approval still holds medium- to long-term imaginative space, becoming an important narrative hook for bullish funds.
● Fundamental structure: On-chain, the Research Brief shows that the total amount of ETH staked remains at historically high levels, with a net deflationary trend in ETH supply continuing to appear across multiple segments, combined with the EIP-1559 mechanism, reinforcing the market's consensus on "increased asset scarcity." However, on-chain activity and DeFi trading volume still show a significant gap compared to the previous peak, and funds' optimism about the fundamentals is relatively restrained.
● Sector rotation: The brief mentions that Ethereum ecosystem layer two networks, restaking, and related tokens have experienced structural trends multiple times in recent months, but the driving effect on ETH spot has been limited, reflecting more of a "satellite asset game," while the main asset itself remains in a structural compression phase.
● Benchmarking BTC: The Research Brief places the current ETH trend within a broader crypto asset cycle, noting that this year BTC completed a major upward wave after the halving and the inflow of new ETFs, entering a high-level oscillation, while ETH has yet to experience a similar level of trending market, with the direction choice of "catch-up or correction" being compressed within this triangular structure.

The evolution of ETH's price structure is not an isolated market pattern event, but rather a resonance product of macro liquidity, regulatory expectations, and Ethereum's own supply-demand structure. When BTC completed a trend segment with the support of the halving and spot ETF inflows, the market began to look for the next phase of "mainline assets," and ETH, with its underlying role in smart contracts and staking lock-up characteristics, naturally became a candidate. However, the repeated rise in U.S. Treasury yields on the macro side and the oscillation of regulatory narratives regarding the Ethereum ecosystem have led to a clear preference for funds to "play through derivatives rather than trend allocation in the spot market." The result of this is: prices are slowly converging within the mid-term triangular structure, volatility is continuously compressed, and the accumulation of derivative leverage and open interest means that once a direction is chosen, there is a potential risk of price volatility being amplified into "overshooting."

Bull-Bear Divergence and Derivative Games

● Optimists:
● The Research Brief points out that bullish funds mainly focus on three points:
● The staking lock-up and deflationary mechanism of ETH form a supply contraction logic in the medium to long term, and the current price range is seen as a "long-term chip turnover period."
● The expectation difference regarding the approval of ETH spot ETFs is believed to not yet be fully reflected in the price, and once the regulatory stance marginally relaxes, it may bring about passive allocation demand similar to BTC at the beginning of the year.
● Compared to BTC, ETH's relative performance has significantly lagged this year, and some institutional research reports cited in the brief suggest that "the ETH/BTC valuation ratio is at a historically low-mid range," thus viewing the current structure as a medium- to long-term layout window, with bulls more inclined to gradually build positions near the lower boundary of the triangle or earn time value by selling put options.
● Pessimists:
● The research brief also records several core concerns from the bearish stance:
● If the macro side experiences a scenario of "high interest rates lasting longer," the overall valuation of risk assets will face further compression, making it extremely difficult for ETH to independently break out into a trending unilateral rise.
● On-chain activity and DeFi volume have not recovered to the previous cycle's peak, while external capital consumption regarding new narratives (AI, RWA, modularization) has weakened ETH's position as the "only mainline."
● On the derivatives side, high-leverage bulls are concentrated in a relatively narrow price range, and once ETH breaks below the lower edge of the triangle, chain liquidations may lead to a downward "waterfall" acceleration, with bears more willing to hedge spot risks or even amplify profits by buying put options and shorting perpetual contracts.
● The role of derivatives:
● The Research Brief particularly emphasizes that the current ETH market is in a derivatives-led pricing phase:
● The implied volatility of options has not synchronized with the slight pullback in spot prices recently, indicating that institutions still price future large volatility relatively high.
● The perpetual funding rate has shown rapid switching between long and short positions in multiple time periods, with short-term sentiment easily swayed by market news, triggering violent "up and down sweeps."
● In terms of options position distribution, the research brief mentions that there are a large number of knock-in/knock-out type structural product sensitive areas near the upper and lower edges of the triangular structure, laying the groundwork for future market triggers of "Gamma squeeze" and passive buy-sell orders.

In the short term, the ETH market has been pushed into a typical "structural game" pattern: the direction is still uncertain, but volatility has already been preemptively raised in derivative pricing. Bulls hope for the realization of regulatory and ETF expectations, the strengthening of staking deflation logic, and the narrowing of the valuation gap with BTC, while bears bet on the maintenance of high macro rates, the underperformance of on-chain fundamentals, and the downward踩踏 induced by high-leverage derivatives structure. In this context, the key focus moving forward will be the effective breakout of the upper and lower edges of the triangular structure, as well as the volume, liquidation volume, and implied volatility of options during the breakout:

● If it breaks upward:
● The key observation point is whether it can break out with volume and stabilize above the upper edge of the structure, accompanied by a drop in options IV and an increase in spot trading volume, indicating a gradual shift of funds from derivative games to spot allocation.
● If it breaks downward:
● It is necessary to be cautious of concentrated releases of forced liquidations and panic selling in the spot market, and if trading and liquidation volumes surge sharply while the price fails to quickly reclaim the lower edge of the structure, it may evolve into a mid-level adjustment wave.

In this process, investors need to pay attention not only to the technical structure of the market itself but also to simultaneously track key variables such as U.S. Treasury yields, Federal Reserve interest rate expectations, marginal changes in U.S. regulatory attitudes, ETH staking, and on-chain fee burning. Because for the current ETH, the technical pattern is merely a "trigger" for the price to choose direction, while the true drivers of the trend remain the repricing of macro liquidity and fundamental supply-demand.

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