Bullish Reasons
●Divergence Intensifies: The "money printing/geopolitical risk" trading logic for 2025 has been vividly demonstrated in gold (up +70% this year) and silver (up +140-150% this year). But Bitcoin has not followed suit. The current price of BTC is about $87,000, having even dropped 8% this year. This has created a huge relative value misalignment.
●Liquidity Trap: The market is bearish on the Federal Reserve's new reserve management purchase (RMP) tool of $40 billion per month, arguing that the current "credit impulse" is diluted compared to the scale in 2009. Arthur Hayes believes this is purely a mathematical misjudgment.
●Catalyst: Once the market realizes that RMP is essentially QE (quantitative easing), we expect Bitcoin to oscillate between $80,000 and $100,000 before the end of the year, and then recover to $124,000 in Q1 2026, followed by a violent surge towards $200,000.
●Bottom Logic: Although the "good news has been fully priced in" from Trump's first year in office, he still has three years left in his term. The Trump family and their business partners have deeply rooted themselves in the crypto space, which means favorable policies will continue to emerge over the next three years.
Relative Valuation: Divergence Between Gold and Bitcoin
If you hold the view of "hard currency" in 2025, you got the macro direction right, but you chose the wrong vehicle—unless you bought gold.
Gold and silver have fully priced in the expectations of "money printing/geopolitical risk/rate cuts" for 2025. Gold prices have soared over 70% this year, while silver has skyrocketed 140-150%, nearing historical highs of $70/ounce.
Only Bitcoin has not moved.
●BTC Price at the Start of 2025: ~$94,419
●Current BTC Price: ~$87,084 (down about 8%)
This creates an excellent relative value trading opportunity: if you believe BTC and gold are both part of the "hard asset" camp, then selling BTC at $87,000 means you are cutting losses at the floor after it has underperformed for a whole year due to various reasons.
The current valuation gap is absurdly large. The market cap of gold has ballooned to $31.5 trillion, while Bitcoin is still at $1.7 trillion. The market cap ratio has expanded from 9 times a year ago to 18 times now. Unless the logic of Bitcoin as a store of value completely collapses, this gap must be closed.
Policy Fundamentals: The Best is Yet to Come
While the market sees Trump's inauguration as a "good news realization" point for Bitcoin, political reality tells us that the real big moves have yet to be revealed.
Trump has only completed his first year. Historical experience shows that the first year is usually a digestion period for the market, but the policy channels have just begun to open. The Bitcoin Strategic Reserve (SBR) framework proposed by the White House in March is just an appetizer. In the coming months, we can expect to see more concrete details on how this reserve will be implemented and expanded.
Don't forget, the Trump administration's support for cryptocurrency goes beyond just writing documents. Trump's core circle, family, and business partners have shown deep "interest binding." For example, Trump Media Group (DJT) has already clearly executed a Bitcoin treasury strategy, launching a multi-billion dollar financing plan. Recent data shows they hold about 11,542 BTC.
FUD Assessment: $MSTR Forced Sell-off is Not a Recent Concern
The recent softening of Bitcoin prices is largely due to market panic over Bitcoin treasury companies, particularly the forced sell-off of MicroStrategy: concerns that MSCI will kick "digital asset treasury" companies out of major indices in early 2026. Our analysis concludes that this concern is completely misplaced.
The index exclusion mechanism affects the stock fund flows of companies like MicroStrategy, and has no bearing on the spot price of Bitcoin. Moreover, these whales have long fortified their balance sheets; for instance, MicroStrategy has hoarded $1.44 billion in cash reserves to handle debt. This buffer is thick enough that there is no need for a forced sell-off of Bitcoin.
Liquidity Mechanism: RMP and the Path to $200,000
Another missing link in the bullish argument for Bitcoin is the Federal Reserve. The New York Fed has initiated Reserve Management Purchases (RMP)—buying $40 billion in Treasury bonds each month.
$40 billion per month sounds great, but as a percentage of the total circulating dollars, this figure for 2025 is far lower than in 2009. Therefore, based on current financial asset prices, we cannot expect its credit impulse to have the same massive impact immediately.
Because of this, there is a widespread misunderstanding in the market that RMP is inferior to QE (in terms of credit creation), coupled with uncertainty about whether RMP will exist after April 2026, which will lead to Bitcoin oscillating between $80,000 and $100,000 before the new year.
Q1 2026 Turning Point: When the market begins to equate RMP with QE (because it is essentially printing money to buy debt), the price revaluation will be very intense.
- Bitcoin will quickly recover to $124,000.
- The price will launch a fierce assault towards $200,000.
- March 2026 will be the peak of the market's expectations for RMP's ability to elevate asset prices.
- After reaching this peak, as New York Fed Chairman John Williams firmly presses the "Brrrr" button on the money printer (continuing to inject liquidity), we expect Bitcoin to pull back and form a local bottom at a position well above $124,000.
Conclusion: Trading Strategy
We believe the $87,000 area represents a solid bottom, characterized by chips moving from impatient capital to strategic long-term holders. The current risk-reward ratio is extremely favorable for capital rotation back into digital assets, and the market will reprice Bitcoin to reflect the liquidity and inflation realities already confirmed in the precious metals market.
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