Digital Renminbi Interest Transformation and Time Window

The People's Bank of China recently released an action plan for the digital renminbi, which will officially implement a new regulatory framework starting January 1, 2026. This plan clarifies a gradual advancement tone while maintaining the existing "central bank - commercial bank/operating institution" dual-layer operational structure. According to the plan, the digital renminbi margin will be treated the same as traditional deposits in banks' asset-liability management, reinforcing its "liability" attribute within the banking system while avoiding a drastic impact on the existing monetary system. The more critical change is that commercial banks are allowed to pay interest on customers' real-name digital renminbi wallet balances and enjoy deposit insurance protection. This means that the digital renminbi is gradually shifting from its previously emphasized "digital cash" form to being defined as "digital deposit currency." This design, which includes interest and a safety net, is likely to reshape the competitive boundaries between domestic payments and deposits, triggering a chain reaction in user asset allocation, payment tool selection, and influencing the cryptocurrency market, especially the Ethereum ecosystem, which is highly related to payments and settlements, carrying stablecoins and DeFi infrastructure.

Interest Attribute Reshaping Payment Landscape and Capital Pricing

Under the new framework, real-name digital renminbi wallets can earn interest, and the corresponding digital renminbi margin will be regarded as a liability item equivalent to deposits on banks' balance sheets. This will directly change the banks' liability structure and funding costs. On one hand, banks will need to pay interest on this portion of "digital deposit currency" and manage terms and liquidity internally; on the other hand, compared to traditional demand deposits and some money market fund products, the digital renminbi wallet, which has payment functionality, real-time settlement, and state credit backing, may form a more competitive combination between yield and convenience. For commercial banks and non-bank payment institutions, wallet interest rates, fee waivers, and payment scenario subsidies will become new focal points of competition. Payment institutions, unable to create deposits independently, will need to design more aggressive subsidy strategies around user retention, scenario binding, and asset entry (such as funds and wealth management) to offset the diversion of their deposited funds by digital renminbi wallets. As the digital renminbi shifts from "cash replacement" to a more "deposit replacement" nature, it may gradually crowd out traditional demand deposits, balance-type money market funds, and deposit-like capital pools formed around payment scenarios, forcing all parties to reprice the competitive landscape in terms of interest rates, product combinations, and payment experiences.

Digital Renminbi's Impact on Dollar-Pegged Stablecoins…

Under the new regulatory framework, the renminbi-denominated digital deposit currency, which has interest and deposit insurance attributes, will provide a more secure and convenient digital docking point for domestic funds. This may, to some extent, replace part of the demand for USDT and other dollar-pegged stablecoins in both on-chain and off-chain markets, especially in scenarios focused on payments, settlements, and value storage. For domestic institutions and enterprises, in cross-border settlements and overseas trade, the digital renminbi is expected to become a tool parallel to offshore stablecoins: the former leans more towards compliant, traceable official channels suitable for businesses with high regulatory cooperation and strong transparency requirements for funds; the latter still plays a dominant role in some high-freedom, dollar-denominated crypto markets. It is important to note that currently, key data regarding the specific trading scale of the digital renminbi, non-bank payment institutions' margin ratios, and whether to adopt a 100% margin or partial reserve model are all pending verification or not publicly disclosed. Public materials only clarify the principle that margins are treated as deposits in asset-liability management. Therefore, the substitution and complementary relationship between the digital renminbi and stablecoins like USDT can only be scenario-based extrapolated based on existing regulatory statements, without precise quantitative impact assessments. Relevant judgments must strictly indicate sources and retain uncertainty.

Ethereum's Chip Concentration Zone and Macroeconomic Hedging Resonance

As of December 29, 2025, on-chain data and market statistics show that approximately 17.9 million ETH are concentrated in the $2700–$3100 range, accounting for about 22.6% of the total circulation, forming a significant chip concentration zone. This price range is both a major accumulation area for previous incremental funds and a potential dividing line for bulls and bears. During the same period, traditional safe-haven assets experienced severe repricing: gold prices rose about 88% to $4500 per ounce, and silver prices surged about 170% to $79 per ounce, reflecting rising inflation expectations and heightened risk aversion in the global macro environment. In this context, Ethereum, as a core asset supporting DeFi, stablecoins, and on-chain payment infrastructure, is gradually being viewed by some funds as a configuration target that combines "growth" and "risk hedging" attributes. Its price volatility and correlation with risk appetite and real interest rate changes are strengthening. The promotion of official digital currencies like the digital renminbi, on one hand, enhances social recognition of blockchain technology and digital asset forms, and on the other hand, establishes a new comparative dimension between fiat currency digitization and decentralized assets, requiring investors to reassess the risk-return structure between interest-bearing, safe digital fiat currencies and high-elasticity, high-beta Ethereum when constructing portfolios.

Silver Export Restrictions and On-Chain Risk Appetite Migration

China plans to implement silver export restrictions starting January 1, 2026. In the context of an already tight global silver market due to energy transition, photovoltaic demand, and investment demand, this policy is widely interpreted by the market as likely to further increase silver price volatility and inflation expectations. Coupled with the reality that silver prices have already risen about 170% to $79 per ounce in 2025, further tightening on the supply side is expected to exacerbate the tension between "physical precious metals" and "nominal currency." After some investors complete a round of precious metal allocation, incremental funds may gradually migrate from low-turnover assets like physical gold and silver to on-chain high-beta assets, such as ETH and its ecosystem tokens, due to liquidity and elasticity considerations. On one line, the "digital deposit currency" represented by the digital renminbi provides a digital form for risk-free or low-risk assets denominated in local currency; on another line, the logic of "physical constraint assets" reinforced by silver export restrictions and precious metal supply-demand rebalancing highlights scarcity and anti-inflation attributes. Under the intertwining of these two narratives, Ethereum participates in "quasi-currency" discussions as DeFi collateral and value storage tool, while also accommodating the configuration demand when risk appetite rises due to its high growth and high volatility characteristics. Its pricing elasticity between the dual narratives of currency and assets may be further amplified in future macro and policy shocks.

Q1 2026 Market Outlook and Opportunities…

Yi Lihua, founder of Trend Research, recently expressed optimism for a "bull market in 2026, especially in the first quarter." This timing coincides closely with the implementation of the new regulatory framework for the digital renminbi starting January 1, 2026, providing the market with a time coordinate for potential resonance between regulatory landing and risk asset repricing. From a regulatory perspective, the interest-bearing nature of the digital renminbi will drive a reassessment of the funding cost system and payment competitive landscape; from a funding cost perspective, changes in banks' liability structures and the expansion of digital deposit currency may influence risk asset valuations through interest rates and liquidity channels; from a macro inflation and risk aversion perspective, gold rising to $4500, silver rising to $79, and further inflation expectations triggered by silver export restrictions will continue to drive valuation premiums for "anti-inflation + high elasticity" assets. Under the convergence of multiple factors, Ethereum and other mainstream crypto assets are expected to enter a market range in Q1 2026 shaped by easing regulatory expectations, improved liquidity, and rising risk appetite, but volatility and differentiation will also intensify. Meanwhile, institutional-level payment infrastructures like Gate Pay are launching institutional accounts and multi-level fund management functions, providing a more mature channel for institutions to allocate funds between the new fiat digital environment and on-chain assets. In the future, more institutions may use official digital currencies like the digital renminbi for compliant settlements while strategically positioning themselves through public chains like Ethereum, achieving dual-track operations in payments and asset allocation.

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