2026 Panorama Overview

Recently, several institutions have begun to intensively provide market outlooks for 2026. Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat, and Jeff Mei, an executive at a trading platform, have expressed similar sentiments in different settings: from a complete cycle perspective, the crypto market is still in a long-term bullish phase, but as the market enters the latter half, the risks of correction and volatility intensity are rising. On one hand, the macro-level expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve have significantly cooled. According to a single source, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January next year is currently only about 15.5%. The scenario of "high rates lasting longer" is becoming the mainstream pricing in the market, which exerts real pressure on the valuations of risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. On the other hand, on-chain and trading data show a coexistence of activity and fragility: mainstream L1 public chains recorded millions of daily active users in 2025, while the crypto market recently saw a liquidation amount of approximately $77.31 million within 24 hours (single source), indicating that leverage and sentiment remain sensitive. Based on this reality, the main logic of the 2026 market is gradually becoming clear: the rhythm of macro monetary policy determines the liquidity environment, the position of crypto assets in historical cycles determines the central direction, public chain users and ecological data reflect the quality of fundamentals, while the structure of funds and pricing mechanisms ultimately reflect on price and volatility.

Macro and Interest Rates

Starting from interest rate pricing, the market's imagination of "rapid easing" is being compressed. According to a single source's derivatives pricing, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in January next year is only about 15.5%, far below the high probability expectations common at the beginning of previous easing cycles. This means that funds are no longer betting on a series of significant rate cuts in the short term. The duration of high rates is being extended, with the direct effect being an increase in the asset discount rate, which discounts the present value of future cash flows and growth expectations. The impact is first reflected in high volatility and high Beta risk assets, with cryptocurrencies at the end of this chain. In this context, Jeff Mei reportedly pointed out that if the Federal Reserve maintains the current high interest rate level, there is a possibility that Bitcoin's price could fall back to around $70,000. This judgment does not provide a specific target price but emphasizes the dual pressure of macro policy on the upper price space and lower support. When the scenario of "rate cuts not meeting expectations" becomes the baseline assumption, the first half of 2026 is likely to be a concentrated period of high volatility and potential corrections in the crypto market: any marginal negative changes regarding the interest rate path could amplify into severe price fluctuations through expectation adjustments, risk appetite contraction, and deleveraging.

Bitcoin Cycle

From historical data, according to a single source's statistics, Bitcoin has averaged about 1,064 days from bottom to top in past complete bull and bear cycles. The current market is generally viewed as being in the latter half of this time frame, with Bitcoin gradually transitioning from a "trend establishment period" to a "trend later stage and high-level oscillation period," showing certain similarities to the stages before previous cycles approached their peaks. Within this long-cycle framework, Tom Lee emphasizes that the financial services industry will become a major beneficiary driven by AI and blockchain technology, meaning that regardless of short-term volatility, long-term capital expenditure and technological penetration will still provide structural support for core crypto assets represented by Bitcoin, and the bullish logic has not been broken. However, from a technical structure perspective, according to CoinDesk analysis, Bitcoin has relatively few historical trading days in the $70,000 to $80,000 range, indicating insufficient accumulation of chips. The support in this price range is considered relatively weak, and if the price falls back into this range again, it is more likely to experience continuous declines in the absence of long-term holder cost support. The current high interest rate environment combined with the end of the upward cycle means that any macro disturbances around 2026 could amplify into more frequent and deeper corrections in price ranges lacking solid transaction density, thus raising the overall cyclical risk premium.

Public Chain User Landscape

Beyond the macro and Bitcoin cycles, user data from L1 public chains provides another important clue for assessing mid- to long-term valuations. According to a single source's statistics, the top five L1 public chains by daily active users in 2025 are: BNB Chain with approximately 4.32 million, Solana with approximately 3.23 million, NEAR Protocol with approximately 3.15 million, TronDAO with approximately 2.55 million, and Aptos with approximately 1.03 million. Millions of daily active users mean that there is a continuous presence of numerous transfers, transactions, DeFi, and application calls on these networks. The denser the on-chain economic activity, the more sustainable the fee income and asset circulation within the ecosystem, which provides greater support for the network value of the public chain itself and the long-term valuation of its native tokens. Among these five chains, Solana stands out particularly; on one hand, its on-chain activity is at the forefront, and on the other hand, reports indicate that Solana ETFs have recently shown a net inflow of funds, creating a dual driving force of secondary market funds and on-chain application demand, making it the focus of institutional allocation and market narrative. In contrast, emerging public chains like NEAR and Aptos are still in the user ramp-up phase, with daily active users exceeding one million and one hundred thousand, but their market capitalization and pricing reflect limited "maturity." The market typically completes valuation re-pricing only after user and ecological data continue to improve, which also leaves a potential window for valuation recalibration in 2026.

Funds and Volatility

From the perspective of funds and market microstructure, the current vulnerability of the crypto market has not significantly decreased. According to a single source's statistics, the recent 24-hour liquidation amount across the network was approximately $77.31 million, a figure that remains high even in the absence of extreme market conditions, indicating that high-leverage positions trigger forced liquidations with slight price fluctuations, and the efficiency of fund usage and risk management levels are relatively aggressive. When this reality combines with the technical structure of "weak support in the $70,000 to $80,000 range," localized negative events (such as interest rate expectations being raised or regulatory statements becoming stricter) could become the trigger for waterfall liquidations, causing prices to experience sharp corrections far exceeding the magnitude of fundamental changes in a short time. From the perspective of fund structure, the behavior of short-term leveraged funds is clearly misaligned with that of mid- to long-term institutional funds: the former chase volatility, amplifying gains and losses through high-frequency trading and high leverage, determining intraday to weekly amplitude; the latter, through ETF subscriptions, asset allocation adjustments, and long-term buying, slowly change chip distribution and price centers. Looking ahead to 2026, once macro interest rates begin to decline substantively, and the growth expectations of AI and blockchain are further strengthened within the traditional financial system, the asset allocation ratios of institutions such as banks, asset management firms, and family offices may gradually tilt towards crypto assets. This slow and continuous migration of funds is expected to help rebuild a higher central price and deeper liquidity pool after multiple rounds of severe liquidations.

Financial Industry Revaluation

On a longer structural dimension, large banks and traditional financial institutions are undergoing a valuation revaluation process referred to as "tech stockification." An increasing number of banks, brokerages, and asset management companies are attempting to transform from the traditional financial image of "high dividends, low growth" to composite enterprises with stronger technological attributes and growth elasticity by increasing investments in AI and blockchain infrastructure, thereby striving for valuations close to tech stocks in the capital markets. Tom Lee's judgment suggests that the financial services industry will become a major beneficiary of AI and blockchain technology, meaning that whether in payment clearing, custody settlement, or in trading matching and risk control modeling, the demand for crypto infrastructure and related technologies from financial institutions will continue to rise. For crypto assets, the indirect benefits brought by this trend of traditional finance "tech stockification" include: more compliant custody services, spot and futures ETF products, and structured derivatives will be launched, with improvements expected in market depth, counterparty risk management levels, and regulatory transparency. As time goes on, when the daily active user count of L1 public chains continues to grow and the penetration of ecological applications increases, while traditional finance continuously embeds these public chain assets into standardized asset allocation frameworks through the aforementioned products and services, the positive feedback between the two will gradually amplify, bringing the crypto market closer from being "marginal speculative assets" to "one of the mainstream diversified allocations."

Outlook and Strategy

Reflecting on the logical chain outlined above, a rough framework for the crypto market in 2026 can be sketched: under high interest rates and uncertain easing rhythms, the liquidity environment is unlikely to suddenly ease, Bitcoin is in the latter stage of an average historical upward cycle of about 1,064 days, and there are weak support zones in the $70,000 to $80,000 price technical structure; meanwhile, at the public chain level, BNB Chain, Solana, NEAR, Tron, and Aptos all recorded over a million daily active users in 2025, and Solana ETFs also showed net inflows of funds. These fundamental and funding factors collectively point to a possible scenario of "large corrections interspersed within a long bull market." It is important to emphasize that this article does not make predictions about any specific price targets, correction magnitudes, or timelines. The price-related information mentioned, such as the $70,000 to $80,000 range, is based on publicly available opinions or analytical conclusions from a single source and does not constitute a definitive judgment. For asset allocators, a more reasonable approach is to use macro interest rates and Bitcoin cycle positions as the first anchor point, and based on this, observe public chain active users, ecological applications, and ETF fund flow data to construct a phased perspective on risks and opportunities: during periods of tight liquidity and weak technical support, control leverage and position concentration, focusing on survival and drawdown management; during phases of a trend decline in macro interest rates, continuous improvement in public chain fundamentals, and expanding net inflows of institutional funds, gradually increase risk exposure, using cyclical volatility to seek better long-term allocation price ranges around 2026.

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