Event Overview
Recently, Trend Research, an institution under Yi Lihua, has made significant investments on Ethereum, coinciding with the USDC Treasury's issuance of new USDC on the Ethereum chain. This has sparked a new round of discussions in the market regarding the flow of institutional funds and the relationship with stablecoin supply. According to various on-chain data statistics, from early November to December 25, Trend Research has continuously increased its holdings on Ethereum, accumulating approximately 645,000 ETH, corresponding to a market value of about $2.1 billion. Meanwhile, the USDC Treasury has minted 60 million USDC on Ethereum. The two funding lines partially overlap on the timeline; one end sees institutions heavily investing in ETH at an average price of about $3,299.43, currently facing an unrealized loss of approximately $242 million; the other end sees mainstream compliant stablecoins releasing new potential purchasing power within the Ethereum ecosystem. The coexistence of massive accumulation and significant unrealized losses makes this event both a strong bet on the long-term value of ETH and a concentrated sample in the market's downward cycle regarding whether "institutions can withstand the drawdown."
ETH Holding Pattern
According to data collected and cross-verified by PANews based on on-chain addresses, Trend Research currently holds approximately 645,000 ETH, making it the third-largest single holding entity on the Ethereum chain with a position size of about $2.1 billion, only behind institutions like Bitmine and SharpLink. The relative ranking indicated by multiple data sources shows that the concentration of ETH among institutions has been rising recently, with Trend Research becoming the most prominent new force in this round of concentration changes. PANews comments that such a substantial holding has made Trend Research an "institutional force that cannot be ignored" within the Ethereum ecosystem, and any subsequent increase or decrease in their holdings could potentially amplify effects on on-chain metrics, market sentiment, and over-the-counter derivatives pricing. For observers, Trend is no longer just a participant but one of the key variables influencing the distribution structure of ETH chips and funding expectations.
Accumulation Cost and Losses
According to calculations by PANews and TechFlow, the comprehensive average price for Trend Research's current ETH accumulation is approximately $3,299.43. At the current price level, its floating loss is about $242 million, and the absolute scale of risk exposure is quite rare among institutional holding cases in Ethereum. On-chain data also shows that the institution's main buying power was concentrated in November, executing accumulation operations through at least seven addresses to reduce single-address exposure and mitigate short-term market signal interference. TechFlow points out that despite such significant unrealized losses, Trend continues to maintain a large position, which to some extent reflects its confidence narrative regarding the long-term value of ETH—more like a bet on the development of the Ethereum ecosystem over the next few years rather than a short-term trading game. From a price perspective, if the ETH price drops another 10%-20% from the average price, the unrealized losses will further amplify. However, once the price returns to previous high ranges or even breaks through, the current base of about $2.1 billion also possesses considerable profit and loss elasticity, making Trend's potential leverage effect significant in future bullish cycles.
USDC Issuance Profile
Almost simultaneously with the institutional accumulation of ETH, the USDC Treasury completed a new minting of 60 million USDC on the Ethereum chain. This issuance transaction has been monitored and publicly disclosed by Whale Alert, recorded on-chain as the USDC Treasury issuing new stablecoins to a designated address, totaling approximately $60 million, making it one of the more prominent single issuance events in the recent Ethereum ecosystem. Structurally, the USDC issuance means that the dollar-denominated liquidity pool on the Ethereum network has been further expanded, providing additional settlement and hedging ammunition for exchanges, market makers, and DeFi protocols. During periods of increased market volatility and price corrections in risk assets, the newly minted USDC may be used for off-market institutional entry configurations or may enter various strategy scenarios such as lending, liquidity provision, and arbitrage. However, it is important to emphasize that the issuance itself only represents potential purchasing power being "moved on-chain" and does not equate to the $60 million USDC directly and immediately flowing into ETH spot buying; its ultimate direction still depends on changes in risk preferences among institutions and individual investors.
Fund Flow and Sentiment
From a temporal perspective, Trend Research has continuously increased its ETH holdings from early November to December 25, while the USDC Treasury also completed the issuance of 60 million USDC on Ethereum during the same period. There is a certain overlap in their rhythms, providing material for market speculation on whether the newly minted stablecoins serve as ammunition for whale buying. However, current on-chain information is insufficient to establish a direct causal chain—there is no concrete evidence that the funds from this USDC issuance were used for Trend's concentrated accumulation behavior; the correlation remains more at the level of timing and macro liquidity. On the sentiment side, a single institution heavily investing during a price pressure period can easily be seen by bulls as a "confidence anchor," suggesting that large funds are supporting from below. However, once the unrealized loss is quantified at approximately $242 million, the same position may be interpreted by another segment of market participants as a "high-position trapped plate," raising concerns about future selling pressure. From the perspective of liquidity and risk preference, the large-scale stablecoin issuance and concentrated institutional positions may increase the price volatility range of ETH in the short to medium term: once risk preferences rebound, the new USDC could convert into buying pressure, amplifying upward price trends; conversely, when sentiment weakens, the large-scale unrealized loss positions may be viewed as potential selling pressure, amplifying downward expectations.
Risks and Outlook
Based on the currently visible data, Trend Research's massive ETH position and the USDC Treasury's issuance on Ethereum appear more as medium to long-term influencing factors on the ETH market structure and on-chain liquidity, rather than simple short-term trading signals. The former reshapes the concentration pattern of top chips, while the latter expands the dollar-denominated liquidity pool, reserving space for a potential new round of capital inflows and outflows. It is important to note that the analysis in this article is primarily based on on-chain data analysis and publicly monitored results; the specific list of Trend's accumulation addresses has not been fully disclosed, and the final recipients and specific uses of the USDC issuance also lack a complete traceable path. These information gaps determine that the current analysis cannot cover all details of fund flows. For future observations, key indicators to track include: changes in Trend Research's holdings and their relationship with price fluctuations, the distribution and activity of the newly issued USDC on-chain, and the synchronicity of ETH spot and on-chain interactions (transfers, contract calls). Meanwhile, market participants should be cautious about extrapolating Trend's future specific buying and selling plans or scales based on unverified rumors, avoiding amplifying individual speculations into deterministic expectations, and excessively magnifying emotional fluctuations and leverage risks in an environment of information asymmetry.
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