As of now, the S&P 500 index has risen nearly 20% this year, while the price of Bitcoin has dropped about 4%. However, cryptocurrency-related companies in the U.S. stock market have taken a completely different path under the same macro environment: companies like BitMine, IREN, and Robinhood have significantly outperformed the market, while traditional Bitcoin Beta stocks, represented by Strategy, have shown weak performance. Cryptocurrency stocks have evolved from simple Bitcoin price leverage into a structural game among three tracks: "ETH treasury stocks," "AI/HPC computing power stocks," and "traditional BTC Beta stocks."
Behind this misalignment in the market is a narrative interwoven with the institutionalization of Ethereum chips, the transition of mining companies to AI/HPC, and the reshaping of institutional capital's entry paths through stock shells and ETFs. In the short term, investors need to focus more on structural differentiation and capital redistribution rather than the rise and fall of a single coin price.
Recently, the price performance of cryptocurrency stocks has shown significant divergence. Against the backdrop of Bitcoin's approximately -4% performance this year, secondary market data shows that BitMine's year-to-date increase is estimated at around +345%, IREN is calculated to be around +300% to +526.5% depending on different metrics, Cipher Mining (CIFR) is around +250%, and Robinhood has also entered the list of strong stocks for the year, while Strategy and others are clearly under pressure. This phenomenon indicates that the linear correlation between cryptocurrency stocks and Bitcoin spot prices is being disrupted by two new main lines: "ETH asset allocation" and "AI computing power business."
From the perspective of driving events, BitMine has been monitored on-chain multiple times in December for suspected large-scale accumulation of Ethereum: approximately 48,000 ETH on December 17, about 29,000 ETH on December 23, plus a record of a new address receiving 25,100 ETH from BitGo within 24 hours, leading the market to estimate that its ETH treasury has exceeded 4.06 million ETH, accounting for about 3.3% of the total ETH supply; meanwhile, IREN has been summarized by KOLs as a representative of "50 EH/s computing power + AI/HPC transition," and Robinhood has been repriced under the positioning of "compliant brokerage + crypto entry," while Strategy, which primarily amplifies BTC Beta through its Bitcoin treasury, has lost favor with investors amid slight declines in coin prices and sector rotation.
News: Institutionalization of ETH and the transformation of mining companies reshape the narrative of cryptocurrency stocks
Surrounding the structural data of Ethereum, the market is forming a mid-term narrative that is unrelated to short-term price fluctuations but has a profound impact on the valuation of cryptocurrency stocks. According to public statistics, the proportion of ETH balances on centralized exchanges has dropped to about 10.5%, a historical low, with approximately 35 million ETH in staking, accounting for about 29% of the circulating supply; under institutional estimation, the combined holding ratio of company treasuries and spot ETFs is about 10.72%, with BitMine estimated to hold around 4 million ETH, accounting for about 3.36% of the total. These data collectively outline a key signal: ETH is transitioning from a high-frequency trading target to a "financial infrastructure asset" dominated by institutions and long-term holders.
At the application layer, the scale of RWA (such as treasury tokenization) supported by Ethereum is estimated to be about $12.5 billion, with a year-on-year increase of about 735%, accounting for about 66.6% of the entire RWA market; the total supply of dollar-denominated tokens like USDT on Ethereum is estimated to be about $172.1 billion, corresponding to a monthly trading volume of about $16 trillion. In contrast, NFT sales in 2025 are only about $2.2 billion, down about 87% from the peak in 2021, with Google search interest significantly lower than in the previous cycle, indicating a clear cooling of retail interest.
In this structural context, BitMine's ETH treasury strategy has become the most dynamic sample in the secondary market. In mid to late December, it was monitored on-chain for suspected accumulation of nearly 100,000 ETH within a week, combined with previous purchases, leading media and KOLs to generally regard it as a "super large-scale Ethereum treasury stock." The market's repricing of BitMine is shifting from the logic of "mining/crypto company" to "Ethereum treasury and asset allocation vehicle."
It is important to emphasize that most of the data regarding its treasury size comes from on-chain address aggregation and media estimates, which involve uncertainties such as address tagging and custody structures, making them more suitable for structural analysis rather than precise financial metrics. Additionally, on December 24, on-chain tracking showed that a new address received about 25,131.6 ETH, worth about $74.76 million, from BitGo within 23 hours, which some analysts view as related to BitMine. Such "suspected wallet" labels amplify market sentiment while also increasing cognitive noise.
Another important narrative comes from changes in the business structure of mining companies. IREN has been cited by several KOLs as one of the representatives of "miners transitioning to AI/HPC": maintaining about 50 EH/s of Bitcoin computing power while actively laying out AI computing power and high-performance computing data centers. Some believe this is a key reason for its performance far exceeding traditional mining companies like MARA by 2025. Meanwhile, there are opinions that more mining companies are allocating some of their electricity and hardware resources to AI/HPC tasks to hedge against the operational pressures brought by Bitcoin block reward halving and fluctuations in computing power cycles.
In contrast, Strategy (MicroStrategy and similar companies) is still primarily viewed as a vehicle for "single BTC treasury + stock leverage." In the context of Bitcoin's approximately -4% performance this year and a slight decline of about 4% in computing power in December, miners have been reported to undergo a phase of "capitulation" (forced selling), and the lack of significant AI/HPC or diversified business transformation news has left such stocks in a relatively "vacuum" in terms of information, significantly reducing their attractiveness to capital and narratives. In terms of news, those who can tell a new story about "ETH infrastructure" or "computing power + AI" are more likely to break away from the single coin price path.
Capital: Repricing from BTC Beta to ETH treasury and AI computing power
On a macro level, since 2025, the overall risk appetite in the U.S. stock market has warmed, with the S&P 500 rising nearly 20% this year, coupled with continuous capital inflow into AI concept stocks, making "computing power" viewed as an asset element with high valuation elasticity in the capital market. The preference for "computing power + AI" and "on-chain asset treasury" is pushing cryptocurrency stocks from a single Bitcoin leverage to a repricing framework of "multi-factor assets."
Within cryptocurrency stocks, there has been a clear redistribution of capital. On one end are AI/HPC transitioning mining companies represented by IREN and Cipher Mining: in social media and research reports, they are categorized as "AI infrastructure stocks," gaining valuation premiums beyond traditional mining companies; on the other end are super large-scale ETH treasury companies like BitMine, viewed as "stock leverage tools for the ETH market," with their stock prices amplified by ETH sentiment and on-chain dynamics.
In contrast, traditional BTC Beta stocks like Strategy, due to their business structure still heavily reliant on Bitcoin prices, are almost entirely exposed to a single factor when BTC is stagnant or slightly retraces. Capital rotation between "ETH treasury stocks" and "AI/HPC mining companies" further dilutes the demand for traditional BTC Beta allocations.
The evolution of institutional channels is a key background for this structural change. The launch of spot ETFs, the allocation of BTC/ETH by listed company treasuries, and the expansion of RWA treasury tokenization provide traditional capital with multi-layered compliant entry paths. Some capital chooses to directly expose itself to coin price fluctuations through ETFs; others purchase stocks of listed companies that hold on-chain asset treasuries or computing power businesses to gain exposure to "assets + business" composite returns.
In this landscape, companies like Robinhood, which combine "compliant brokerage + crypto interface," are seen as important bridges connecting traditional capital and crypto assets, as they possess both traditional brokerage traffic and crypto trading channels. Various statistics show that Robinhood's year-to-date increase in 2025 far exceeds that of many traditional tech stocks, reflecting that capital is willing to pay a premium for "compliant entry + crypto exposure." Capital is no longer just choosing "to buy coins or not," but is combining paths between "buying coins, buying crypto stocks, and buying RWA/ETFs" based on cost, compliance, and leverage needs.
In terms of short-term volatility, around December 24, the three major U.S. stock indices saw slight increases (Dow Jones +0.16%, S&P 500 +0.46%, Nasdaq +0.57%), but the cryptocurrency stock sector, as reported by Odaily, generally experienced a pullback: Circle approximately -4.91%, BitMine approximately -4.21%, Strategy approximately -3.92%, SharpLink approximately -3.45%, Coinbase approximately -2.26%, and Solana-related stocks approximately -1.77%. This pattern of "moderate index rise, high volatility pullback in crypto stocks" reflects the characteristics of capital taking short-term profits and risk control on high-elasticity targets, also indicating that such stocks are more prone to amplified volatility during sector rotation.
Sentiment: Extreme fear in the spot market and FOMO misalignment in crypto stocks
In terms of sentiment, the cryptocurrency spot market and the cryptocurrency stock market at the end of 2025 show a clear misalignment. The fear/greed index once fell to 16, indicating "extreme fear," with Bitcoin prices dropping below the $90,000 mark, and on-chain discussions surrounding "miner capitulation" and "whether the cycle turning point is near" have sparked intense debate, with retail trading activity and Google search interest both below the previous cycle. While there is extreme fear in the spot market, stocks like BitMine, IREN, and Robinhood in the crypto sector have recorded high annual increases, creating a typical mismatch of "pessimism in the spot market vs. FOMO in stocks."
Around BitMine, community perceptions have become highly polarized. Some bulls view it as "the highest Beta of the ETH institutional bull market": reasons include its estimated treasury of about 4 million ETH, accounting for over 3.3% of the supply, and the convenience of traditional capital participation brought by its listed company shell, believing its stock price performance is a market pre-pricing of the long-term value of "ETH as RWA and USDT and other dollar asset infrastructures." Conversely, some investors worry that its assets are highly concentrated in a single token, making it almost "naked" to ETH price fluctuations, and have raised the argument of "Ethereum treasury play high-risk bubble," believing that once ETH prices correct or the regulatory environment changes, the downside elasticity of the stock price may also be amplified.
For AI/HPC transitioning mining companies like IREN, the main sentiment narrative focuses on the imaginative space of "mining machines becoming AI servers." Supporters see it as a bridge connecting the Bitcoin cycle and the AI capital expenditure cycle, believing it can partially detach from the Bitcoin cycle during periods of high AI demand; skeptics point out that AI/HPC businesses require long-term capital expenditure and customer validation, currently remaining more at the expectation level, with a high "story premium" in the short-term stock price increase.
The sentiment evolution of traditional BTC Beta stocks like Strategy is quite symbolic: in the previous cycle, they were widely regarded as "Bitcoin leverage kings," but in 2025, with Bitcoin at approximately -4% and underperforming the S&P 500 by nearly 20%, these stocks have neither fully reflected the downside risk of BTC nor enjoyed the benefits of the overall risk appetite increase in the U.S. stock market. The label of "old-world Bitcoin leverage stocks" places them at a disadvantage in narrative and sentiment competition.
At the same time, Ethereum retail chips continue to flow out of CEX, with increased staking and institutional holding ratios, reflecting a long-term structural change of "retail exit, institutional takeover." However, in the stock market, retail investors are often attracted by the high annual increase data of BitMine, IREN, and others, chasing high-volatility crypto stocks, creating a structural misalignment of "retail exiting on-chain, retail chasing up in the stock market." This cognitive and behavioral divergence is an important emotional backdrop for the current high volatility of cryptocurrency stocks.
Long and Short Game: The Collision of Valuation Logic Among Three Types of Cryptocurrency Stocks
Surrounding the three tracks of "ETH treasury stocks," "AI/HPC transitioning mining companies," and "traditional BTC Beta stocks," both long and short sides have formed a clear confrontation in valuation logic.
For "ETH treasury stocks" like BitMine, the bullish logic is primarily based on three points: first, Ethereum, as the underlying layer for RWA (currently about $12.5 billion, year-on-year +735%), USDT and other dollar-denominated tokens (total supply about $172.1 billion, monthly trading volume $1.6 trillion), as well as DeFi, payment, and other applications, is being viewed as "financial infrastructure"; second, the massive ETH treasury combined with the listed company shell allows traditional capital to indirectly gain high elasticity exposure to ETH through stock purchases; third, given the relatively limited circulating supply, the "implied ETH sensitivity" per share is considered high, thereby amplifying the reflection of ETH price changes on stock prices. Bulls believe that BitMine is more of a hybrid of "asset management company + tech stock," rather than a simple mining company.
The bears, on the other hand, approach from the perspective of risk concentration: the assets are highly concentrated in a single token, and the degree of business diversification is insufficient, making the company's profits and valuations highly sensitive to ETH prices and regulatory environments; during significant fluctuations in ETH prices, stock prices may experience more severe pro-cyclical volatility; at the same time, the on-chain treasury is highly transparent, which, while enhancing information visibility, also provides short sellers with more convenient monitoring and trading signals, making "shorting treasury stocks in line with the trend" more feasible operationally.
For AI/HPC transitioning mining companies like IREN, the bulls emphasize its approximately 50 EH/s foundational computing power and infrastructure capabilities, which can undertake AI/HPC tasks beyond traditional BTC mining operations, thus achieving a certain hedge between the Bitcoin cycle and the AI capital expenditure cycle; if the market is willing to assign it a valuation multiple close to "AI infrastructure stocks," the stock price elasticity will be significantly higher than that of traditional mining companies.
The bears point out that the realization rhythm of AI/HPC revenues, customer structure, contract duration, and capital expenditure recovery periods all have high uncertainty, and the competitive pressure from professional cloud vendors and AI infrastructure giants cannot be ignored; the current market capitalization reflects more of expectations rather than verified stable cash flows, and once the overall heat of AI cools or a major customer is lost, the valuation adjustment may be quite severe.
For traditional BTC Beta stocks like Strategy, the bulls still value their simple structure and clear leverage path: amplifying BTC exposure through the listed company shell avoids operational execution risks and management complexities brought by complex business structures. If Bitcoin re-enters a trend upward in the future, these types of stocks may still achieve "valuation repair + emotional rebound."
The bears argue that in the current phase where BTC is approximately -4% and the S&P 500 is nearly +20%, single BTC Beta lacks new reasons to attract capital; compared to companies with both "ETH treasury" or "AI computing power," these stocks are clearly lagging in narrative competition; within a multi-asset allocation framework, capital is more likely to directly gain BTC exposure through spot ETFs rather than bear the additional risks associated with a company's governance and operations. The long and short game among the three types of cryptocurrency stocks is essentially a valuation trade-off between "single-factor BTC Beta" and "multi-factor composite assets."
From a market structure perspective, the bulls are more inclined to make "relative value" allocations among the three tracks, for example, under the premise of being optimistic about the long-term development of crypto, they prefer to increase allocations to AI/HPC transitioning mining companies or ETH treasury stocks to pursue higher elasticity; the bears may hedge their spot or ETF positions by shorting high-volatility crypto stocks, utilizing the high beta characteristics of the sector to amplify volatility returns.
Market Outlook: Conditional Paths of the Three Tracks
In the absence of a clear trend judgment, it is more valuable to discuss the possible relative performance of the three types of cryptocurrency stocks based on different macro and industry scenarios. These discussions are purely structural analyses and do not constitute any investment advice.
If a scenario arises where "BTC and ETH restart upward simultaneously, and AI capital expenditure maintains high prosperity," ETH treasury stocks may exhibit high elasticity under the dual effects of balance sheet expansion and emotional premium, but price fluctuations will also be more severe; AI/HPC transitioning mining companies may continue to gain valuation premiums beyond traditional mining companies under the dual drive of "computing power + business revenue"; traditional BTC Beta stocks are expected to gain a rebound alongside BTC trends, but their relative advantages in "new narrative competition" may be limited.
If we enter an environment of "long-term fluctuations or even corrections in BTC/ETH, and cooling AI enthusiasm," ETH treasury stocks may face dual pressures on the asset and valuation fronts, with downward elasticity significantly amplified; AI/HPC transitioning mining companies may face pressure on utilization and capital expenditure recovery, with the market focusing more on their real profitability rather than narrative space; traditional BTC Beta stocks, due to their simple structure and valuation base, may be compressed, potentially exhibiting certain defensive attributes in relative terms.
In a scenario of "tightening regulation and significant adjustments to policies regarding RWA and USDT and other dollar assets," the paths for institutions to hold crypto assets through ETFs or company treasuries may be partially restricted, directly affecting the valuation foundations of ETH treasury stocks and BTC treasury stocks; compliant brokerage/entry-type companies represented by Robinhood may face repricing due to changes in regulatory costs and business scope; mining companies and AI/HPC businesses may be more valued by the market as "traditional computing power companies" rather than "crypto + AI story stocks."
From a research framework perspective, in the future, when observing cryptocurrency stocks, it may be necessary to detach them from the "single BTC Beta" label and incorporate them into a more complex multi-dimensional structure: asset treasury composition (BTC vs ETH vs other assets), business structure (mining, electricity, AI/HPC, brokerage), regulatory exposure and geographical distribution, capital participation paths (ETF, direct equity, on-chain assets), etc. At the same time, understanding how on-chain data (such as CEX balances, staking ratios, institutional holding estimates) interacts with financial report data and stock valuations will become a foundational capability for analyzing typical companies like BitMine, IREN, and Strategy.
Cryptocurrency stocks in 2025 are not simply a mirror of coin prices, but a narrative and structural rearrangement around ETH treasuries, AI computing power, and Bitcoin assets. In the next year or two, companies like BitMine, IREN, and Strategy are likely to continue serving as key samples for observing the success or failure of the "new paradigm of cryptocurrency stocks": their stock prices not only reflect the volatility of on-chain assets but also inversely shape market expectations regarding the relationship between the next round of crypto and AI cycles.
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