Master Talks Hot Topics:
Last night, when the U.S. third-quarter GDP data came out, the numbers looked good, far exceeding expectations. But if one hopes that the risk market will peak because of this, that's just nonsense. The market hardly reacted, and the reason is simple: the better the economy, the less reason the Federal Reserve has to cut interest rates in 2026.
Right now, these funds are not looking at whether the data is good or not; they are calculating when Powell will give in. No matter how bright the GDP looks, to them, it’s just a catalyst for delayed interest rate cuts, and the positive news is directly treated as negative.
And when Trump comes out to say that we should trust the Federal Reserve Chairman to cut rates, to put it bluntly, it’s just hot air. He has completely lost control over Powell and can only wait for his term to end.
The current reality is that the Federal Reserve does not listen to the White House, the market does not listen to the data, it only listens to the interest rate path. As long as the timing of rate cuts is not moved forward, don’t expect risk assets to have a decent trend.
The ETF side has also repeatedly emphasized a fact: the Christmas rally has already started, but this start is not an increase; it’s people leaving. Some funds have already gone on vacation, and the trading volume and liquidity are visibly declining.
When liquidity is poor, the market is left with two states: the first is narrow grinding, and the second is specifically poking at you. Tonight is Christmas Eve, and tomorrow night the U.S. stock market is closed. Trading volume will only be lower, and in this environment, thinking about trend breakthroughs can only be said to be a bit problematic.
Yesterday, I mentioned in my analysis that there are always people trying to fool you about the Christmas rally and year-end surge, making it sound real. What’s the reality? The current market is so trashy that the rises are not satisfying, and the falls are not decisive; it’s specifically designed to hit your stop-loss.
You just chased a long position, and it pokes you. You just shorted, and it rebounds to annoy you. This kind of rebound essentially has only one word: fake. It’s not that funds are bullish; it’s short covering plus the main force controlling the market.
Back to the market, last night a buy order of over 80 million dollars for Bitcoin pushed the price to 90.5K. It looked impressive, but what happened? Today it was pushed back down. Tonight, another buy order of over 40 million dollars will at most recover half of the drop from last night to today.
To put it simply, after a 3,600 drop, an 1,800 rebound, the resistance is still clearly there at 88.8K. Don’t really think this buy order can change the trend. In a non-bull market environment during Christmas, more often than not, it’s a Christmas disaster.
Especially after Japan raised interest rates, that kind of real sharp drop and poking hasn’t fully happened yet. With liquidity this poor, the main force loves to poke down a needle, sending all the self-proclaimed smart bulls away at once.
The current structure of Bitcoin is very clear; 88.8K to 90.8K is a whole pressure zone. Every time it comes, it gets smashed, with not even a shadow of standing firm. In this position, if you don’t short at a high, waiting for a confirmed breakout is basically waiting to be cut.
But if there’s a rebound during the day, be even more careful at night; during low liquidity periods, it’s easiest to have unexpected issues. A small poke looks at 85K, a big poke goes straight for 80.6K to 78.8K. Don’t think it’s exaggerated; if the market really goes crazy, it can teach everyone a lesson in a minute.
Ethereum isn’t doing much better; it can’t break through the MA30 on the daily chart. After a high, it falls back, with two small bearish candles sitting there, and the momentum is weak. There’s support at 2800 below, so a waterfall is unlikely in the short term. But if you expect it to shoot up to the sky, you’re just dreaming.
Currently, 2900 is the key line of life and death; if it breaks, look for 2850, and if it can’t hold, continue to look down. Fluctuation is just fluctuation; without a trend, it’s all nonsense!
Master Looks at Trends:
Currently, Bitcoin is in a very awkward cost range between 87K and 88K, making it hard to operate in either direction. The truly cost-effective range starts from below 86K. The area from 84.5K to 86K is relatively safer and more advantageous for entry, belonging to an important support dense area.
Even if a rebound occurs, it will constantly face pressure from above and be pushed back down; the market characteristic is to pull a bit and then smash, so take profits when needed, don’t be greedy. The 88K to 89K area is a very strong pressure zone, and the moving averages have already formed a bearish arrangement, with the overall trend still downward.
Before a true trend reversal occurs, the overall mindset continues to be bearish. The RSI is around 42, with room to continue moving down; before entering obvious oversold territory, being patient and observing is actually more advantageous.
The first support at 86K is the upper edge of the current trading dense area, an important support level. The second support at 84.5K is the position held during the last rapid decline; once it breaks, the price is likely to further probe down to 82K.
Only an effective breakthrough of the first resistance at 88K can be considered a decent rebound, and it’s likely to test the upper moving averages and the long-term downward trend line.
If it can break through the second resistance at 89K with volume, then we can discuss a trend reversal. Otherwise, as long as there’s no volume to support it, any upward pull will basically be smashed back down.
12.24 Master’s Band Trading Setup:
Long Entry Reference: Not currently applicable
Short Entry Reference: Short in the 88300-89000 range, Target: 87100-86000
If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, not just look at a few market situations and jump to conclusions. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they “catch the top and bottom every time,” but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by exaggerated data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are needed to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
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