Core Summary (In Brief)
CoinEx "2025 Annual Report" points out that the cryptocurrency market is undergoing a deep structural transformation. The traditional "four-year halving cycle" is gradually collapsing under the continuous intervention of institutional capital.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have transformed BTC into a part of standardized asset allocation, evolving from a highly volatile speculative target to an asset with macro reserve properties.
This report systematically analyzes the market's transition from "retail-driven speculation" to "institution-led ecology" and addresses six key questions regarding 2026 asset allocation.
CoinEx's benchmark judgment is: Bitcoin is expected to reach $180,000 in 2026. However, it also clearly states that the broad altcoin season is no longer existent—future liquidity will only flow to those with real adoption and clear business models, the "blue-chip survivors."
Retail investors must adopt a "Double-Track Strategy":
On one hand, focus on BTC, ETH, and compliant yield products to "ride" institutional funds; on the other hand, seek Alpha in smaller, on-chain subfields that institutions have not fully covered.
DeFi has entered a new stage centered on profit, shifting focus to Fee Switch protocols similar to equity dividend mechanisms.
In the AI × Crypto field, the truly sustainable advantage lies not in "buying AI coins," but in using AI tools—upgrading retail investors to "super individuals" with productive leverage through AI Agents and "Vibe Coding."
The market in 2026 will reward certain cash flows, structural adoption, and technological leverage, rather than mere volatility bets.
1. Market Judgment: Where is the overall crypto market headed?
The Four-Year Cycle is Experiencing Structural Collapse
The historically validated "halving four-year cycle" is becoming ineffective.
In historical cycles, post-halving was often driven by retail sentiment, resulting in parabolic rises and deep pullbacks; however, in 2025, Bitcoin fell back to below $90,000 after approaching $125,000 in October, without excessive speculation or frenzy.
Early profit-taking and emotional restraint indicate that the supply shock from halving is weakening in the face of continuously growing demand.
The fundamental reason lies in the significant enhancement of institutional absorption capacity. By the end of 2025, the asset management scale (AUM) of spot Bitcoin ETFs has exceeded $150 billion, with funding sources including corporations, governments, endowment funds, pensions, and sovereign wealth funds.
Bitcoin's behavior is shifting towards a "new type of reserve asset" rather than a bubble asset.
Global Liquidity Remains a Fundamental Variable, but Marginal Impact is Weakening
Global liquidity in 2026 will provide limited support.
The market expects the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates by 50–75 basis points, while the European Central Bank and the People's Bank of China remain cautious, and the Bank of Japan gradually normalizes.
Since the launch of ETFs in 2024, the correlation between Bitcoin and M2 has significantly weakened.
Liquidity provides a "floor," but what truly drives the rise will be institutional fund inflows and regulatory progress.
2026 May Reach New Highs, but "Altcoin Season" Will Not Return
CoinEx holds a cautiously optimistic view of the market, expecting Bitcoin to reach $180,000 in 2026, driven by policy support and institutional demand.
Due to macro or geopolitical influences, a 20–30% pullback may still occur, but the traditional 70–80% crash probability is extremely low. Achieving approximately 2x growth from current levels is the baseline scenario.
However, widespread altcoin rallies will no longer occur.
Retail fatigue, fragmented liquidity, and shortened project lifecycles mean that funds will selectively flow into projects with real adoption, sustainable income, and profitability.
2. Institutions vs. Retail: Where are the Opportunities for Retail?
Retail remains important, but the excess return space is narrowing.
"Simple Alpha" reliant on narratives and emotions is disappearing; success increasingly depends on structural understanding and in-depth research.
Beta Strategy: Anchor to Anti-Inflation Assets and Compliant Yields
Bitcoin and Ethereum are gradually becoming anti-inflation value storage tools.
Retail investors should make them the core of their portfolios rather than chasing extreme multiples.
"Riding the wave" of institutional funds through compliant yield products (such as staking ETFs and insurance-wrapped products) is a more robust approach.
Improvements in the regulatory environment will promote the development of low-volatility, compliant on-chain yield products.
RWA (Real World Assets) is constructing "programmable risk-free interest rates" through tokenized government bonds.
Selection criteria should prioritize compliance, ecological maturity, developer retention, and real income, rather than price speculation.
Alpha Strategy: Shift from Emotional Pursuit to On-Chain Precision
The $19 billion liquidation event in October 2025 marked the end of retail sentiment peaks.
High FDV projects and VC unlocking pressures create valuation traps; in the absence of retail buyers, the cost of driving prices up sharply increases.
Alpha in 2026 requires a Double-Track Strategy:
- Avoid high FDV and heavily unlocked assets
- Prefer fairly issued, naturally demand-driven projects
- Focus on PMF, audited income, and execution capability
Analytical tools should shift from CEX sentiment to on-chain tools like Nansen, Glassnode, Santiment, and Dune.
Retail's advantage lies in flexibility, allowing for quicker rotations and tracking of smart money.
True Alpha exists in areas not yet covered by institutions:
Web3 payments, vertical AppChains (gaming, creators), and early liquidity windows of new chains.
3. Public Chains: A Manual for Retail Operations on Public Chains
Under regulation and institutional fund inflows, leading Layer 1s have become "institutional battlegrounds."
However, in high-volatility subfields, retail still holds advantages: Meme, AI, Privacy, Staking, Mining.
The current competitive landscape is stabilizing:
Solana, BSC, Base lead in liquidity, developer density, and execution efficiency, serving as core battlegrounds for retail participation.
Retail Participation Pathways
Early Opportunities: ICO / IDO / Launchpad
Through quality Launchpads, retail can gain access to filtered early exposures.
Meme Coins
Community-driven, high-risk, high-reward, suitable for retail investors with strong volatility tolerance.
On-Chain Staking Yields
Staking and liquidity mining are expected to continue outperforming traditional financial rates in 2026, serving as an important supplement to the Beta strategy.
4. TradFi × Crypto: Directions for the Next Stage of Integration
Non-Linear Evolution Path: Issuance → Tokenization → Perpetualization
Tokenization is the core driving force, with a current scale exceeding $18 billion (primarily in government bonds), and stock tokenization around $670 million.
The next step will expand to private credit, equity, and alternative assets, with funds like BlackRock's BUIDL leading the way.
This will then enter the "perpetualization phase":
Building perpetual contracts on tokenized assets and achieving automatic deleveraging through AI risk control.
A deeper integration will involve native on-chain issuance of stocks and bonds.
Yield Logic is Shifting
Institutional-level yields are being "democratized."
Protocols like Plume provide 4–10% actual yields for DeFi through off-chain assets.
Centralized exchanges will compete fiercely around AUM, launching subsidized wealth management and TradFi-like structured products.
5. DeFi: Which Tracks are Worth Watching?
DeFi has transitioned from the experimental stage to a profit-oriented stage, with capital concentrating on real PMF and cash flows.
Emerging High-Growth Tracks
Prediction Markets and Real-Time Data Infrastructure
Weekly trading volume surpassed $3 billion in 2025. In 2026, hybrid products combining prediction markets and traditional derivatives will emerge.
Intent Architecture: Solver Revolution
The Intent DEX has reached a scale of $1.2 trillion, optimizing execution and eliminating MEV through AI Solvers.
The focus of competition is shifting to algorithmic efficiency.
Core Investment Pool: Protocols with Real Value Capture
Prioritize Fee Switch protocols (revenue > emissions):
- Perpetual Contracts: Hyperliquid
- Aggregators: Jupiter
- DEX: Raydium, Aerodrome, PancakeSwap
- Others: Pump.fun, SKY, Aave, Lido
Avoid governance tokens with no cash flow.
6. AI × Crypto: Buy Coins or Use Tools?
AI × Crypto is heading towards a fork:
One path is "concept token speculation," while the other is the tool-based, productivity route.
Infrastructure of the Machine Economy
Protocols like x402 support Agent payments below $0.0001 and 200ms.
Web3 is becoming a key infrastructure for physical AI and decentralized computing power.
Strategic Shift: From Concept Speculation to Productivity Alpha
Differentiate between real PMF (verifiable reasoning, Agent payments, decentralized GPUs) and marketing narratives.
Build AI-enhanced systems:
- Research: Agent aggregation of on-chain and sentiment data
- Decision-making: LLM filtering noise
- Execution: Automated arbitrage, DCA, and risk control
The ultimate advantage lies in "Vibe Coding"—building trading Agents with natural language, transforming retail investors into "super individuals."
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Please conduct your own research; the author is not responsible for any losses.
About CoinEx
CoinEx was established in 2017 and is an award-winning cryptocurrency exchange focused on users. The platform was founded by the globally leading mining pool ViaBTC and is one of the first exchanges to release Proof of Reserves, ensuring 100% security of user assets.
CoinEx covers 200+ countries and regions, over 10 million users, supports 1400+ crypto assets, and issues the ecological token CET.
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