Master Discusses Hot Topics:
First, let's talk about non-farm payrolls. The data is there, and the unemployment rate has gone up. But to say the market truly believes this is a sign of recession? I think that's a bit far-fetched. The U.S. stock market didn't take it seriously at all; instead, a bunch of people were cheering.
Hoping for a higher unemployment rate to force the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates more? What happened? Last night, the U.S. stock market not only didn't crash but actually stabilized, and Bitcoin also bounced back a bit. Whether the data is bad or not doesn't matter; as long as a narrative for favorable rate cuts can be spun, the market can continue to speculate.
As for Japan's interest rate hike this week, I’ll mention it again since people keep asking me about it. I can only say it's a case of being late to the party because the rate hike was already a known factor, and the market had long digested it. By the time that moment arrives, hoping for a big market move is quite unlikely.
Do you want me to say that a 0.75% interest rate is high? Not at all. What really makes people uneasy is whether they will continue to tighten the monetary policy. If they really go for sustained rate hikes, that would be a slow knife cutting flesh, so the current reactions have already played out.
Back to the market, Bitcoin's spot premium has turned negative. Last night's little rebound didn't bring in any spot buying; it was all contracts. To put it plainly, this rebound is just a house of cards; a rise without spot participation is not ideal.
Moreover, I have no interest in being bullish until the price stands above the 4-hour channel midline of 90.1K. The current market is still oscillating weakly.
Also, since the main players fled on December 12, they haven't returned to make a market. You need to recognize this reality. The so-called upward movements afterward only reached a maximum of 92.6K. Why exactly 92.6K? Because that was the last serious market-making position of the main players, after which it was all downhill.
If the main players don't come back to buy, how can Bitcoin possibly find a bottom? This script has already played out once in March and April of this year. What will happen next? It's simple; there will be batch after batch of bulls being dragged out as sacrifices, and the bears are indeed not finished yet.
The daily structure did rebound after testing 85K, but it didn't even touch the opening price of 88.1K on Monday, being pressed down all night. This indicates that the buying pressure from 85K is simply not enough; it weakened at the critical level.
Want to turn things around? Sure, break through 88K with volume and then we can talk; otherwise, it's pointless to say much. Only if it firmly stands above 88K can it qualify to test 90K. If it's just a spike to grab liquidity, then it's a trap, and it will continue to go down afterward.
Looking at the smaller time frames, it’s clearer. On Monday, there was a spike to 85K, and on Tuesday, it didn't go to seize that low point, indicating that area will have to be tested again. Last night's oscillating rise was essentially a retest of 86K, confirming it, then pushing to 88K, which was immediately rejected. Now it's stuck around 87K, just grinding time.
From a structural perspective, as long as it doesn't break 86K, it can still be considered slightly bullish. But the key is whether 87K can hold to push towards 88K. If it can't hold 87K, or if it spikes to 88K or 89K only to be slammed back down, it’s weak as hell, and looking back at 85K wouldn’t be surprising. If it can't hold 83.7K, then it can only be seen at 78K.
As for Ethereum, it goes without saying; the rebound is like constipation, neither going up nor down. It hasn't even touched the shadow above 3000, and the closing line is just a slowdown in the downtrend, hardly strong.
On the hourly level, it’s currently a garbage range. The upward correction hasn't completed, with 2984 to 3012 being all resistance. If anyone is fantasizing that Ethereum will lead the charge from this position, I can only say that being awake is better than anything else…
Master Looks at Trends:
Currently, a double bottom structure has formed on the 1-hour level, with short-term lows concentrated around 85.7 to 86.4K. This segment has already created a clear area of concentrated trading volume; as long as this area holds, it can still be viewed as a bottom in the short term. If it can't hold, all rebound logic will be invalidated.
Because this wave is essentially a technical pullback, with everything above pressing down on you. 88K combined with the 60-day moving average is the first resistance; it can't be passed just by wishful thinking.
If there is a subsequent pullback, and the price can hold above the previously mentioned low point range and then slowly push up, that would be an actionable opportunity. If it breaks down directly on the retest, it can only indicate that the bulls are continuously weak.
The RSI is currently around 47, looking neutral, but it’s actually not strong at all. The bearish momentum has only slowed, not disappeared. What to watch for next is not how strong the rebound is, but whether the selling pressure shows a significant reduction when the RSI approaches 30; that would be the real signal.
First support is at 86.4K, second support is at 85.7K. These two positions are the core areas of the double bottom structure, and all long and short battles in today’s market will revolve around these two lines. If there is a short-term pullback, it’s best not to lose the range of 86.7K to 87K; losing it will directly compress the rebound space.
First resistance is at 87.9K, second resistance is at 88.7K. The area around 88K is strong resistance, being the high point before yesterday's close and the starting point of the weakening trend. Don’t talk about breakthroughs without volume; if the volume doesn’t keep up, it’s just a false move. Only with volume can it stand firmly again, qualifying to look at a retest of 90K.
12.17 Master’s Wave Strategy:
Long Entry Reference: Not currently applicable
Short Entry Reference: Short in the 88000-88700 range, Target: 86400-85700
If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, not just make hasty conclusions after a few market observations. This market is filled with performative players; today they screenshot long positions, tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "catch every top and bottom," but in reality, it’s all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don’t be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!
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