🚨 Recently, the long-discussed issue of quantum computing has taken on a new angle: Will Satoshi Nakamoto's 1 million $BTC be cracked and sold off?

Very interesting! The market always seems to enter a phase of "risk pricing based on imagination" at certain times.

But what's even more interesting is that throughout Bitcoin's existing history, all the reasons for its supposed demise have ultimately turned into evolutionary milestones.

Many discussions start by asking: Can quantum computing crack BTC? How long will it take?

This question itself has a bit of a media bias. The more realistic question should be:

👉 If quantum computing truly becomes a real threat, will it emerge suddenly or will it approach slowly?

The answer is the latter, and it will be a very slow, very engineered approach. On an engineering level, current human technological capabilities are lacking by more than an order of magnitude.

So it won't be that one day we wake up and #Bitcoin has been cracked by quantum computing; it's more likely to be:

A national laboratory → An academic breakthrough → A certain repeatable engineering validation → A very small-scale experimental attack → The industry begins to respond.

In other words, it is a threat that can be observed years in advance, not a sudden black swan event.

This point is very important, as it directly negates the narrative of "suddenly emptying Satoshi's wallet."

The reason is simple:

A quantum machine that can truly attack ECDSA will definitely be a national-level resource, and the first thing it will do is not to crash the Bitcoin price;

What they care more about is: military communications, intelligence systems, financial clearing, and the cryptographic systems of hostile nations…

How much market value does your Bitcoin even represent? What’s the cost-effectiveness of an attack compared to using a nuclear bomb to blow up a warehouse?

So, if we must set a time frame for the quantum threat, I believe—

In the next 5 years, it can almost be ignored;

In 5-15 years, it may enter a phase that requires engineering preparation;

Only after 15 years might it become a system-level decision variable.

And even then, it’s not quantum VS Bitcoin, but quantum VS the entire world's cryptographic systems, which could potentially crack banks, military systems, and global communications.

By that point, what you should be worried about will absolutely not be the price of BTC!

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