😂 I didn't expect that as we approach 2026, there are still people using the M2 money supply of the US or globally to determine the price of $BTC. While I also believe Bitcoin will continue to rise, its trend really has nothing to do with M2.

M2 reflects more about deposits and credit creation within the banking system, while the pricing logic of Bitcoin has long shifted from macro money supply to a framework similar to tech stocks, focusing on capital structure, market micro-behavior, and preferences in capital allocation.

Whether BTC rises or not does not depend on M2, but rather on whether large funds are entering the market, whether the supply of BTC is decreasing, and whether traditional investors have started to treat BTC as a formal asset for allocation. Capital structure is more important than the total money supply, and the supply-demand structure is more crucial than how much money is printed.

Over the past decade, the relationship between M2 and BTC has completely severed. For example, in 2022, M2 hit a historical high, yet BTC plummeted due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes. From 2023 to 2024, M2 growth slowed, but BTC rebounded sharply due to the approval of spot ETFs. By 2025, it became even more absurd; the Federal Reserve was reducing its balance sheet, M2 growth slowed, yet BTC continued to rise until October.

What truly drives Bitcoin is not M2, but new demand curves, new participants, new financial products, and a shift in asset perception across cycles. More and more people are viewing BTC as a "supra-sovereign asset," and this change in asset status cannot be explained by M2, just as no one would say that the rise in US stocks is due to an increase in M2.

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