Master Discusses Hot Topics:

It's Friday, and the macro market this week is still stagnant, with everyone waiting to see how the Federal Reserve will play its cards in December. The market appears calm on the surface, but there are undercurrents everywhere. Whether it's the U.S. stock market or Bitcoin, they are both grinding back and forth in a narrow range.

Even some data from yesterday didn't hold much significance. It couldn't even create a splash; the market is basically focused on the next interest rate cut, wondering if it will be 25 basis points or if there will be a surprise or a shock.

This week probably won't stir up much either; it's likely to just drag on. Next week, we will have to pay attention to the dot plot and Powell's speech, along with a series of data releases, which will also be my mid-term entry point.

Speaking of interest rate cuts, I honestly hope they don't cut this time. Delay it until next year and drop a 50 basis point cut all at once, letting these capital dogs continue to hang on to their expectations and speculate.

The market needs constant expectations and hype to create volatility; there needs to be a story for retail investors to rush in. A single cut might feel good, but it could announce the end of this rally. At this critical juncture, a 50 basis point cut could very well be the last dance of this market, leading to a complete downturn.

And as for Powell, please don't change him. Really, if he changes, it will lead to a plunge in the U.S. stock market and a waterfall in Bitcoin. Who wants to see that kind of "You jump, I jump" scenario? I certainly don't.

Many bulls are currently trapped, and if the market could push up a bit more, at least let these people catch their breath and get out of their positions before going in to bottom-fish in the first quarter of next year, instead of waiting endlessly to break even and feeling exhausted.

Back to the market, Bitcoin's feeling these past few days can be summed up as a strange calm before something happens. It's been rubbing against 92K to 93K, unable to break up or down, like it's holding back a big move.

Every time it tests 95K, it's pushed back by sell orders, and that selling pressure is real. However, the support from 90.5K to 91K is also holding strong; no one is gaining an advantage, just a hard slog.

I've also looked at the weekly structure. After being plundered at the upper edge of the large range at 124.5K, it has been moving down. It has retraced to the lower edge of the large range's weekly OB, and now it's rebounding. The key to this rebound is to touch 99K, which is an important annual resistance.

Only if it can stand above that will there be hope; otherwise, it will continue to push towards the 80K range. The small range has also been oscillating within a box for several weeks. The daily chart is even more convoluted; this week it plundered last week's low and then last week's high, which is a typical washout to get people to exit.

Above, 94.5K to 95K has been pressing down, with spot prices continuously being hammered, while contracts are holding up the volatility. If it wants to go up, it must break above 93.1K with volume; otherwise, it will have to go down for a third test, with a target directly at 88.8K.

My mid to long-term view is also not hidden; bearish sentiment outweighs bullish. 126.2K is the top, and this round of increases has ended. 80.6K is a stage low but not a major low.

A rebound to 99K or 107K could reverse, leading towards the 7X range for Bitcoin. The spot market is continuously selling; if you follow along and go long, you're playing with fire, unless the spot suddenly starts buying aggressively and the price stabilizes above 93.1K; otherwise, the bulls will again be giving away benefits.

Master Looks at Trends:

Resistance Levels Reference

Second Resistance Level: 96,300

First Resistance Level: 93,200

Support Levels Reference:

First Support Level: 90,400

Second Support Level: 88,300

In the short term, Bitcoin is a classic case of a quick surge, a half-day rest, and then grinding to death. After the rebound, it starts moving sideways again, now basically hovering around the 20MA.

The current price is completely stuck in the old range of 90.4K to 93.2K; if it wants to go up, it won't have hope unless it breaks 93.2K. If it wants to go down, as long as 90.4K holds, the bears won't suddenly crash it down.

If it can push back up to 93.2K in the short term, there will be a chance to touch the downward trend line and the 200MA, which is the major line pressing down on the market. But if it can't even hold the 20MA, then we will have to look at the 60MA and 120MA for support; otherwise, it will go down again.

The first support at 90.4K is a very critical support level; if it breaks here, the bulls will have no hope in the short term. If it holds, we can continue to trade based on the rebound strategy, and if it drops, we can gradually buy at lower levels. This position also overlaps with the 60 and 120MAs, making it the last line of defense for the bulls.

The second support at 88.3K, if it drops down to here, we will see this level; if it breaks here, it will be troublesome. The first resistance at 93.2K is the upper edge of the pressure zone that must be broken in the short term; if it doesn't break, we will see oscillation.

The second resistance at 96.3K, once it breaks 93K, space will open up above. 96.3K is the next strong pressure point, but once it reaches here, there will likely be a decent pullback, so don't impulsively chase the highs.

12.5 Master’s Wave Strategy:

Long Entry Reference: Not currently applicable

Short Entry Reference: Short in the 93,200-93,900 range, Target: 92,000-91,500

If you truly want to learn something from a blogger, you need to keep following them, rather than making rash conclusions after just a few market observations. This market is filled with performers; today they screenshot long positions, and tomorrow they summarize short positions, making it seem like they "catch the top and bottom every time," but in reality, it's all hindsight. A truly worthy blogger will have a trading logic that is consistent, coherent, and withstands scrutiny, rather than jumping in only when the market moves. Don't be blinded by flashy data and out-of-context screenshots; long-term observation and deep understanding are necessary to discern who is a thinker and who is a dreamer!

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