Cryptocurrency News
December 4 Hot Topics:
1. Bybit partners with Komainu to launch institutional-grade custody and 24/7 secure trading solutions.
2. The Ethereum mainnet successfully activated the Fusaka upgrade, significantly enhancing data processing capabilities.
3. Coinbase: Working with several major banks to advance cryptocurrency pilot projects.
4. Prediction market platform Polymarket returns to the U.S. and launches its application.
5. BlackRock predicts that the surge in U.S. Treasury bonds will drive institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies.
Trading Insights
The core logic of avoiding liquidation in contracts: from "gambling" to "steady profit."
Do not bet on direction, only do what is certain. Key understanding: Price fluctuations are probabilistic; contracts earn certainty, not thrill. Pitfall: Leverage is an amplifier; a 1% fluctuation under 10x leverage can lead to zero. Betting based on feelings = giving away money. Required actions:
First assess the trend (up/down/sideways); if unclear, stay on the sidelines.
Before entering, ask yourself: Is there any sudden news? Where to stop loss if wrong?
Optimal timing: Enter after a breakout and a confirmed pullback; better late than early.
Replace "guessing" with strategy. ① Grid quantification (for sideways markets) Applicable scenario: Price fluctuates within a narrow range (e.g., BTC 60K-65K). Operation: Set multiple limit orders, automatically execute trades at fixed price increments to achieve "buy low, sell high." Suggestion: Small position + 3x leverage, single grid profit 10%-15%, daily return 2%-5%.
② Funding fee arbitrage (zero-risk guaranteed profit) Method: Simultaneously go long on spot + short on perpetual contracts to lock in the interest spread. Example: Funding fee 18% + spot annualized 2%, interest spread 16%, earning 16,000 U.S. dollars annually on 100,000 U.S. dollars.
③ Two-way hedging (defensive before major events) Applicable scenario: When direction is unclear, such as during Federal Reserve meetings or CPI releases. Operation: Open equal long and short positions; stop loss on one side once direction is clear, leaving the other side to profit.
Risk control is the premise of survival. Position rules: Initial position ≤ 1%, maximum not exceeding 3%, increase position only after making profits. Continuous losses: Reduce position or go flat; never gamble to recover losses.
Stop loss principles: Set stop loss upon opening a position, capped at 2%-3%; do not hold onto hope. If profits exceed 5%, immediately raise the stop loss to the entry price to ensure no loss.
Emotional management: After three consecutive losses, take a mandatory one-day break; trading while in a bad mood will lead to losses. Write a trading journal: Record reasons for opening positions, emotions, stop losses, and use data to reduce subjective judgment. Bottom line: Financial independence Keep enough for one year of living expenses; never trade with "living money," as this is a lifeline.
Finally: Contracts earn not from volatility, but from systems, discipline, and stability. Beginners should first do 100 simulated trades, mastering risk control before using real money. Learn to avoid losses before discussing profits.
LIFE IS LIKE
A JOURNEY ▲
Below are the real trades from the Daba community this week. Congratulations to those who followed along. If your trades are not going well, you can come and test the waters.
Data is real, and each trade has a screenshot from the time it was issued.
**Search for the public account: *Daba Talks Coins*
Bilibili and YouTube account: Daqian 777
BTC
Analysis
Since Williams' speech last Friday, investor sentiment has begun to warm up, further proving that the Federal Reserve's monetary management is the main narrative in the current market. As long as the expectations for a rate cut in December are not broken and the dot plot does not show a clear hawkish shift, the market will naturally remain in a relatively optimistic range. This also indicates that under the premise of no systemic issues in the macro environment, the core focus of investors is no longer on the individual data points themselves, but rather on whether the Federal Reserve is willing to hinder inflation by triggering an economic downturn. The reason Williams' speech was able to stabilize the market immediately is not because of its dovish content, but because it sent a very clear signal that the Federal Reserve has realized that the tightening of financial conditions has exceeded expectations and needs to communicate to avoid unnecessary market deleveraging. In the current window of slowing growth but not yet in recession, and inflation declining but not yet at the bottom, changes in policy stance will be magnified by the market as a directional guide. Bitcoin rebounding to around 94,300-95,500 can be a point to short, and if it breaks below 91,700, it can be seen down to around 90,700.
ETH
Analysis
Ethereum weekly level: The price is currently in a pullback after breaking the trend line, in a stage of downward rebound. Therefore, the current price is in a rebound - retest - confirmation of resistance. From the strength of the rebound, it has reached 3,200+, but there are still multiple resistance levels above: 3,340, 3,480, 3,600. These previous high resistance areas may become the endpoint of this rebound. As long as it does not break 3,600, the overall trend remains downward.
Daily level: The price has broken the W bottom, and the short-term trend is very strong, with three consecutive bullish candles, indicating strong control by the bulls. However, it is currently in the mid to late stage of this rebound trend, and the probability of a volume game or the first wave of a high pullback is high, so be cautious when chasing long positions.
From the Vegas perspective, the daily resistance area resonates with Vegas.
4-hour level: The price characteristics on the 4-hour chart show a stepwise rise in lows, a strong phase of upward movement (without significant pullbacks), and continuous bullish candles breaking through various short-term resistance levels. At the same time, previous Vegas levels have also been broken, with TD9 appearing at high levels without a pullback, indicating that short-term funds are actively pushing prices higher.
Subsequently, attention needs to be paid to price behavior, such as a volume surge followed by a pullback, a sharp drop during the night session, or a top divergence, confirming resistance areas, all of which can be used for short position setups.
- The price has continuously shown TD9 + TD13 bearish signals at high levels, accompanied by KDJ + RSI in the overbought range. The probability of a downward adjustment today is very high; do not blindly chase long positions. If you want to chase long positions, it can only be done on a pullback, as the price is stuck in the middle.
Disclaimer: The above content is personal opinion and for reference only! It does not constitute specific operational advice and does not bear legal responsibility. Market conditions change rapidly, and the article has a certain lag. If you have any questions, feel free to consult.
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