On December 2, 2025, the cryptocurrency market experienced a strong rebound, with Bitcoin first breaking through the key resistance level of $91,885, successfully stabilizing above the $91,800 integer mark and breaking through the upper boundary of a long-term downward channel, injecting strong confidence into the short-term market; Ethereum also strengthened, launching an attack on the key resistance level of $3,100. However, multi-period technical indicators showed divergence, combined with monthly level adjustment pressure, intensifying the market's long-short game, and the year-end oscillation pattern is expected to continue.

I. Core Market Trends and Technical Analysis

(A) Bitcoin: Breaking the Downward Channel, Short-term High-level Oscillation

1. Trend Reversal Signal: After a significant surge on December 2, Bitcoin officially broke through the upper boundary of the previous downward channel, and the daily closing price stabilized at the key position of $91,800. The 4-hour cycle shows a clear bullish trend, with funds leaning towards bullish, opening up space for subsequent rebounds. If the 4-hour cycle continues to break through, the next resistance level above will point to around $95,070, with a theoretical upward space of nearly 700 points.

2. Divergence in Multi-period Indicators: In the short term, the 15-minute line is about to form a death cross, and the bullish momentum in the 1-hour cycle is gradually weakening, indicating a possible slight pullback in the short term, with limited expected decline; the 5-minute line shows signs of a counterattack, and small cycle fluctuations will intensify intraday oscillations. It is worth noting that the Bollinger Bands indicate that the current price is at a relatively high level, with the upper band forming short-term resistance, which may trigger a bearish counterattack.

3. Key Level Conversion Logic: After breaking through the upper boundary of the previous downward channel, $91,800 has transformed from a resistance level to a core support level. If this position is lost, it may trigger a short-term pullback; while $95,070 serves as a strong resistance area above, it is also a previous dense trading range, becoming the core node for the long-short contest.

(B) Ethereum: Marginal Weakening of Momentum, Focusing on Breaking $3,100

Ethereum followed Bitcoin's rebound, with the current price approaching the key resistance level of $3,100. The short-term trend remains focused on testing this resistance level, with market expectations that if it can effectively break through, it may further open up upward space. From a technical perspective, the bullish trend in the 4-hour cycle remains unchanged, but the 2-hour line shows a continuous weakening of momentum, the 30-minute line indicates short-term buying opportunities, and the 15-minute and 5-minute lines form a long-short game situation, overall presenting a characteristic of "bullish in large cycles, oscillating in small cycles." Additionally, $2,798 serves as a core support level below, which is a key defensive line for bulls.

II. Core Market Contradictions and Long-Short Logic

(A) Bullish Logic: Confirmation of Breakthrough + Bullish Fund Flow

1. After Bitcoin broke through the downward channel, the technical aspect formed a preliminary signal of trend reversal, aligning with the trading logic of "going long after breaking key resistance levels";
2. Short-term fund flow leans towards bullish, and the large cycle bullish structure has not been damaged, providing support for prices;
3. Ethereum has accumulated sufficient momentum below $3,100, and if the breakthrough is successful, it may trigger follow-up buying, pushing prices further up.

(B) Bearish Logic: Monthly Adjustment + High-level Pressure

1. The monthly K-line is still in a downward trend, and the current rebound may be a repair market in the mid-term adjustment process, lacking long-term upward support, which may lead to further downward momentum;
2. Both Bitcoin at $95,070 and Ethereum at $3,100 are strong resistance levels, making short-term breakthroughs challenging, and the risk of high-level pullbacks cannot be ignored;
3. After a major market movement, market sentiment tends to be cautious. Bitcoin peaked at $93,000 in the early hours of December 2 before retreating, indicating strong selling pressure at high levels, with a high probability of intraday consolidation.

III. Practical Trading Strategies and Risk Warnings

(A) Core Operational Strategy

1. Bitcoin Trading Ideas:

• Bullish Layout: Consider small positions to go long near the support level of $91,800, with stop-loss set below this position, targeting the resistance level of $95,070;

• Bearish Layout: Lightly short near the upper Bollinger Band or around $95,070, with stop-loss set above the resistance level, capturing short-term pullback opportunities;

• Wait-and-see Principle: Currently in a high-level oscillation phase, after significant fluctuations yesterday, there is a high probability of intraday consolidation. It is recommended to avoid rash entry and wait for clear signals of support stabilization or resistance breakthrough.

1. Ethereum Trading Ideas:

• Bullish Layout: Based on the support level of $2,798, or when a clear stabilization signal appears on the 30-minute line, consider small positions to go long, targeting the extended space after breaking $3,100;

• Bearish Layout: If the resistance level of $3,100 cannot be effectively broken, consider lightly shorting, with stop-loss set above this position, targeting the support level of $2,798 below;

• Rhythm Control: With marginal weakening of short-term momentum, be cautious of the "breakout failure" risk, strictly control positions, and avoid chasing highs or panic selling.

(B) Risk Warnings

1. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and with the divergence of multi-period indicators, short-term market uncertainty increases. Leverage trading should be used cautiously, and strict stop-losses are recommended;
2. Breakthroughs or losses at key levels may trigger trend acceleration, requiring close attention to changes in trading volume. If a breakthrough lacks volume support, it may signal a "false breakout";
3. Macroeconomic sentiment, regulatory policies, and other sudden factors may affect market trends. During trading, maintain flexibility in adjustments and avoid relying solely on technical analysis;
4. This strategy is based on the current technical situation and market sentiment. Real-time market changes may lead to strategy failure, and investors should make rational decisions based on their own risk tolerance.

IV. Market Outlook

The current cryptocurrency market is in a contradictory phase of "trend conversion testing + mid-term adjustment unchanged." Bitcoin has broken through the downward channel but faces monthly pressure, while Ethereum focuses on breaking through key resistance levels. The oscillation pattern under the long-short game is expected to continue. In the short term, the market will compete around the range of $91,800-$95,070 for Bitcoin and $2,798-$3,100 for Ethereum, with the outcome of the breakthrough determining the final direction of the year-end market. Investors are advised to focus on core key levels, respect market volatility, and adhere to the core principle of "light positions for trial and following the trend," avoiding blind chasing of highs or bottom fishing, and responding rationally to the complex year-end market.

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