Preface——
The sharp pain on my tongue suddenly made me realize: you can't rush when eating, and life is the same; only after making a complete mess of things do I understand: don't be blinded by superficial profits, greed is the root of losses; suffering a catastrophic loss without a stop-loss is heart-wrenching: self-comfort through luck cannot withstand the harsh reality, respecting the rules is the bottom line. All the stumbling and fumbling are actually destined growth — without tripping a few times, you can never figure out which path is stable and far-reaching; without falling a few times, you can never see clearly which pits to avoid.
Having suffered losses and fallen down, fear is useless, and sinking deeper is even more useless. The market is always full of opportunities, and trends are always advancing; what we need to do is to calmly review every mistake, engrave the lessons into our bones, shore up weaknesses, practice hard skills, and gradually improve ourselves. The pits we once fell into have now become our "pitfall guide"; the mines we once stepped on have now become our "armor" — why can't we profit?!
In the market, most people fall in the darkness before dawn, complaining about bad luck; while true strong individuals can always endure the storms of tonight, turning every loss into a stepping stone, waiting for tomorrow's dawn to break through the clouds, smiling as they reap the profits that rightfully belong to them.
Macro Environment: Interest Rate Cut Expectations Soar to 87%, Injecting a Booster into the Crypto Market
The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December has surged to 87%, returning to the high levels seen before the October meeting. New York Fed President Williams and other dovish officials have publicly expressed support for rate cuts, believing that the cooling labor market has created space for easing policies. This expectation had plummeted to 30% in mid-November due to hawkish comments, but has now rebounded strongly, becoming the core driving force supporting the cryptocurrency market.
The Federal Reserve's Beige Book confirms that the economy is fundamentally stable, with moderate price increases, but labor market demand remains weak, perfectly resonating with the expectations of rate cuts. This shift in policy expectations has significantly boosted risk asset sentiment, with cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin being the primary beneficiaries.
Capital Flow: ETF Funds Flow Back, Institutional Attitudes Warm Up, Bullish Momentum Strengthens
There has been a positive shift in Bitcoin ETF fund flows, with net inflows occurring continuously this week, and institutional selling pressure has significantly eased. Investors are effectively absorbing market sell-offs by buying on dips, providing "invisible support" for coin prices.
The outflow of major Bitcoin funds like Grayscale's GBTC has significantly decreased, with some products turning into net inflows, indicating that institutional investors' attitudes towards the market have shifted from cautious observation to tentative accumulation. This change in capital flow forms a positive feedback loop with the market's high expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, further solidifying Bitcoin's support above $90,000.
Price Trends: Consolidation and Accumulation, Intensified Bull-Bear Battle
Bitcoin is currently holding steady around $91,000, in a critical area of balance between bulls and bears. After previous extreme volatility, the market has entered a "rest and recuperation" phase, with the range of fluctuations significantly narrowing, especially during the Thanksgiving holiday period, where trading volume has shrunk and prices have shown a narrow oscillation pattern.
Yesterday, Bitcoin touched a high of $92,000, indicating that bulls still have the intention to push higher, but then retreated, showing that resistance still exists above. On-chain data shows that bullish buying has continued to increase this week, creating a synergistic effect with ETF fund inflows, providing dual support for prices.
Technical Analysis: Volume Dips Indicate Resilience, Key Price Levels Determine the Outcome
The daily chart shows a volume dip rebound, reflecting a rational trading environment with no obvious panic buying or selling. The hourly chart faces resistance from the 200-hour SMA, which is the main technical barrier for current price upward movement.
Key Technical Level Analysis:
Upper Resistance: $92,000 (intraday high) → $93,000 (psychological level) → $95,000 (mid-term resistance)
Lower Support: $90,000 (strong psychological support) → $89,000 (short-term defense) → $87,500 (bullish lifeline)
Current technical patterns indicate that Bitcoin is at the end of a "converging triangle" consolidation, facing a directional choice. Volume dips during oscillation are typical characteristics before a breakout; once the $92,000 resistance is broken with increased volume, upward space will open up; if it falls below the $89,000 support, it may trigger a new round of adjustments.
Investment Strategy Recommendations: Grasp the Oscillation Rhythm, Control Positions Reasonably
Short-term Trading Range:
Long Position Strategy: Buy in the $89,000-$89,500 range on price pullbacks, target $90,000-$91,000
Short Position Strategy: Short in the $91,800-$92,500 range on price rebounds, target $90,800-$90,500
Medium to Long-term Outlook: The expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates has formed a "strong consensus," and a rate cut in December is almost a certainty. This liquidity easing expectation will provide continuous support for Bitcoin. It is recommended that investors gradually build positions during the oscillation period, focusing on the results of the Federal Reserve's December meeting; once the rate cut is confirmed, Bitcoin is expected to usher in a new round of upward trends, with attention on the high point range of $98,000-$100,000.
Outlook: The Wind of Rate Cuts Has Arrived, Bitcoin is Set to Accumulate Momentum in the Short Term
Bitcoin is currently at a critical juncture of "policy expectations + capital inflow + technical consolidation," resonating with three favorable factors. The expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting rates acts as a "stabilizing force" for market confidence, while institutional capital inflow provides "ammunition support," and the technical volume dip indicates an impending breakout trend.
Key Focus: The Federal Reserve's December meeting (December 9-10), continuous ETF fund flows, and the breakout situation of the two key technical price levels at $92,000 / $89,000. If it can hold above $92,000, Bitcoin is likely to challenge the area above $95,000; if it fails to break through after the rate cut, then caution is needed for the short-term adjustment risks triggered by profit-taking.
In the current market environment, cautious optimism is the best strategy; patiently waiting for breakout signals will allow us to seize investment opportunities in cryptocurrencies during this rate cut cycle.
I really like a saying by Buddha: "No matter who you meet, they are the person who is meant to appear in your life, not by chance; they will definitely teach you something." So I also believe: "Wherever I go, that is where I am meant to be, experiencing what I am meant to experience, meeting the people I am meant to meet." To everyone reading this article, thank you for our encounter!
This article is exclusively published by (WeChat Official Account: Jane Crypto) and is for reference only. Trading itself is not difficult; the challenge lies in human nature and self-discipline. I hope we can all continuously improve ourselves through learning, honing ourselves, and becoming stronger for a longer time.
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