Good afternoon everyone, this is Li Mu. People leave names, and wild geese leave sounds; the market has memories, and every trade arrangement leaves traces. Recently, a series of arrangements regarding BTC and ETH have been successfully recovered under your witness, and the market has once again entered a decision-making interval. Let's analyze the future market together with Li Mu.
In the past two days, I looked at the on-chain data, and the open contract volume of BTC has dropped sharply by 40%, from $45 billion a few days ago to $28 billion, reaching a low point since April this year. Meanwhile, as of the 21st of this month, institutional selling has ended, and large whales have taken over the buying. ETFs have also started to see positive inflows. Does this feel familiar to everyone? The floating chips have been cleared, forming a mid-bottom market condition to recharge, which reaffirms the previous viewpoint.
Looking at the market, Bitcoin has reached 91,900, and Ethereum has reached 3,070. As a phase target, it should end here (you can refer to the smart money addresses, which have basically completed their liquidation by this point), but another problem has arisen.
Ethereum's short-term selling pressure has receded, while Bitcoin's trend shows signs of continuation.
The retreat of Ethereum is due to hitting resistance in the price range, while Bitcoin's continuation is due to the reverse buying of liquidated contracts. Therefore, as long as Bitcoin does not clearly break down, Ethereum will continue to be stuck in a grinding phase until Bitcoin establishes a direction. So, it is not advisable to bet on short-term targets now; entering without basis is simply gambling. However, we can think in the opposite direction: assuming a false breakout to the upside, prioritize making a trade near Ethereum 3,010 and Bitcoin 91,000, targeting Ethereum 3,100-3,130 and Bitcoin 93,000-93,500, and then start testing the shorts.
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