Original Title: "Crypto Market Takes a Breather, Bitcoin Bounces Back to $91,500 - Can It Continue?"
Original Author: Shaw, Jinse Finance
In the early hours of November 27, the crypto market showed signs of recovery after weeks of stagnation, with Bitcoin experiencing a rapid rebound, briefly surpassing $91,500 and reaching as high as $91,950, gaining over 4% in 24 hours; Ethereum returned to the $3,000 mark, briefly touching $3,071.37, with a 24-hour increase of over 3.5%. Data shows that in the past 24 hours, the total liquidation across the network reached $323 million, with long positions liquidating at $77.08 million and short positions at $246 million.
Recently, the market direction has shifted, and under the combined influence of macroeconomic conditions and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the crypto market has temporarily halted its downward trend. Can this rise indicate that the market has bottomed out and can continue?
I. Crypto Market Stops Decline and Rebounds, Panic Eases Slightly
In the early hours of today, the crypto market showed signs of recovery after weeks of stagnation, with Bitcoin experiencing a rapid rebound, briefly surpassing $91,500 and reaching as high as $91,950, gaining over 4% in 24 hours; Ethereum returned to the $3,000 mark, briefly touching $3,071.37, with a 24-hour increase of over 3.5%.
Coinglass data shows that in the past 24 hours, the total liquidation across the network reached $323 million, with long positions liquidating at $77.08 million, short positions at $246 million, BTC liquidations at $133 million, ETH liquidations at $52.37 million, and SOL liquidations at $16.20 million. In the past 24 hours, a total of 112,363 people were liquidated, with the largest single liquidation occurring in Hyperliquid-BTC-USD, valued at $14.58 million.
The recent prolonged downturn in cryptocurrencies has made this significant rebound a moment of respite for the market, alleviating the deepening panic to some extent. Improving macroeconomic conditions, rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and ETF funds may be the main driving factors behind this cryptocurrency rebound.
II. Improvement in Macroeconomic Data Stimulates Major Asset Markets
The latest data shows that the number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week was recorded at 216,000, estimated at 225,000, and the previous value was 220,000, marking the lowest level since mid-April, significantly boosting investor confidence. Although the PPI report indicated a slight increase in wholesale prices due to rising energy and food costs, the core PPI's increase (2.6%) was the smallest since July 2024.
Recent macroeconomic data from the U.S. has shown decent performance, and retail stocks related to Thanksgiving holiday consumption have been boosted. Optimistic sentiment has supported technology stocks and small-cap stocks to continue strengthening. The S&P and Nasdaq reached two-week highs. Dell rose nearly 6%. Nvidia rebounded, with Nvidia up over 1% and Coreweave up over 4%; Google fell back 1%.
The improvement in macroeconomic data has stimulated a rebound in investor confidence in the market, and the rise in major assets like U.S. stocks has also influenced the rebound in the crypto market.
III. Federal Reserve's Shift in Direction, Expectations of Rate Cuts Rise Again
The latest Beige Book released by the Federal Reserve shows that U.S. economic activity has remained basically unchanged in recent weeks, with overall consumer spending declining further except for high-end consumer groups. The Beige Book noted that the U.S. job market has weakened slightly, and price levels have continued to rise moderately. The Federal Reserve stated in the report: "The overall economic outlook remains stable, with some surveyed businesses warning of the risk of an economic slowdown in the coming months, while the manufacturing sector shows cautious optimism." Due to the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, which lasted until November 12, key economic data collection was interrupted, making recent field surveys reflecting the actual conditions of businesses and consumers particularly noteworthy. Federal Reserve officials will not have access to complete labor market and inflation data for October and November before the December policy meeting.
After the report was released, JPMorgan economists changed their forecast, believing that the Federal Reserve will initiate rate cuts in December, reversing their judgment from a week ago that policymakers would delay rate cuts until January. The JPMorgan research team stated that several heavyweight Federal Reserve officials (especially New York Fed President Williams) have expressed support for recent rate cuts, prompting them to reassess the situation. Currently, JPMorgan expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates by 25 basis points in December and again in January.
CME "FedWatch" data shows that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December is 84.9%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is 15.1%. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by January is 66.4%, with a probability of maintaining the current rate at 11.1%, and a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut at 22.6%. Additionally, Polymarket data shows that "the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December has risen to 83%", while the probability of maintaining the current rate has fallen to 16%, with the trading volume for this predicted event reaching $173 million.
Recent Federal Reserve reports and statements from several officials have led to increasing market expectations for a rate cut in December, and investors have regained confidence in re-entering the risk asset market.
IV. ETF Fund Flows Show Signs of Recovery, New Coin ETFs Launched
Trader T monitoring data shows that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has seen net inflows for two consecutive days, with a total inflow of $149 million; the U.S. spot Ethereum ETF has also seen net inflows for two consecutive days, with a total inflow of $139 million. Additionally, several institutions have launched related ETFs for other mainstream cryptocurrencies. Grayscale has now launched XRP and Dogecoin ETFs. Bitwise has officially launched the Bitwise Dogecoin ETF on the New York Stock Exchange, with the ticker BWOW. Franklin Templeton, VanEck, and others have also applied to launch new ETF products.
The temporary recovery of ETF fund inflows, along with the launch of related crypto asset ETFs by other institutions, indicates that institutional investor funds have not completely withdrawn and will still enter the market after readjustment.
V. Market Analysis and Interpretation
Can this rebound in cryptocurrencies indicate that the market has bottomed out, and has the deep adjustment come to an end? Can the upward trend continue? Let's take a look at some recent market analyses and interpretations.
4E Lab observes that the return of ancient whales, the relaxation of ETF derivatives, a trend towards structured regulation, and continued institutional buying together form a mild bullish signal. The "expectation gap" for Bitcoin has shifted from extreme optimism to rational optimism, while Ethereum is regaining attention from deep on-chain players. The improvement in funding and regulatory environment has led the market into a phase of "policy warmth, stable funds, and rising sentiment."
Matrixport released a chart stating that "according to the implied pricing of federal funds futures, the market expects the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut on December 10 to have risen to 84%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate in January has also increased to 65%. Under such expectations for the interest rate path, even if a rate cut occurs in December, the overall easing of monetary policy will still be limited. Compared to Bitcoin, gold has a higher correlation with the U.S. fiscal deficit and the pace of Treasury issuance, making it more direct in hedging against fiscal expansion and rate cut expectations. Bitcoin, on the other hand, relies more on substantial incremental funds entering the market, and the current incremental liquidity has not been significantly released; in this environment, the divergence in trends between gold and Bitcoin is likely to continue in the short term."
Mike Novogratz, founder of Galaxy Digital, stated that he still believes Bitcoin could return to $100,000 by the end of the year, but there will be significant selling pressure at that time. He noted that the "1011" crash has had a mid-term psychological impact on the market. Novogratz also mentioned that with clearer crypto policies and the entry of traditional financial giants, the market will become deeply differentiated, and tokens that provide value will be favored.
Jeff Park, an advisor at Bitwise, believes that Bitcoin's previous four-year halving cycle has ended and has now been replaced by a two-year cycle driven by the economic behavior of institutional fund managers and ETF fund flows.
Abramchart, an analyst at CryptoQuant, pointed out that the market has just completed a deep "leverage washout," with the total amount of open contracts plummeting from $45 billion to $28 billion, marking the largest decline in this cycle. This is not a bear market signal but rather a significant market cleansing, eliminating excessively inflated speculative positions and accumulating healthier momentum for future rises.
Tom Lee, chairman of BitMine, believes that Bitcoin could potentially return to the historical high of $125,100 before the end of the year. Lee stated in an interview on Wednesday: "I think it is very likely that Bitcoin will stand above $100,000 by the end of the year, and it may even set a new high."
Jasper De Maere, a trading strategist at Wintermute, pointed out that the options market shows that traders generally expect Bitcoin to fluctuate in the $85,000-$90,000 range, betting that the market will maintain the status quo rather than show a breakthrough trend. Whether this rebound can truly transform into a sustainable upward trend ultimately depends on whether macro policies and liquidity can provide continuous and strong support.
Delphi Digital analysts published an analysis of the bullish and bearish structures currently forming for BTC. The bullish scenario views the current trend as an ABC correction, which needs to effectively complete and break through $103,500 to be confirmed. The bearish scenario suggests that any position below $103,500 during the current rebound could form a lower high, triggering the next wave of decline to complete a full five-wave downward impulse, after which a larger-scale sustained rebound would occur.
Yili Hua, founder of LiquidCapital (formerly LDCapital), stated that with ETH returning to $3,000, the extreme panic has passed, and he remains optimistic about the subsequent market trend.
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