Hello everyone, this is the Limu Channel. Yesterday, we completed all the recoveries from our previous wave, covering the entire range from 97,300 to 88,000 for Bitcoin and from 3,256 to 2,873 for Ethereum. We thought that the bearish momentum had been fully released and that the market would enter a consolidation phase for a decent upward correction. However, the disappointing non-farm payroll data from the M Labor Bureau hit the market hard again, causing the unexpectedly heated job market to turn the three major stock indices from gains to losses, with the Nasdaq dropping over 2%. Mainstream cryptocurrencies continued to head south, with Bitcoin hitting a low of 86,000 and Ethereum dropping to around 2,790, resulting in over 560 million in long positions being liquidated.

Last night, we made a round of shorting, with Bitcoin moving from 91,800 to 89,000 and Ethereum from 3,010 to 2,915. However, when Bitcoin reached the support level of 88,500 and Ethereum broke below the 2,890 mark, we engaged in a bottom-fishing behavior. Unfortunately, the market did not meet expectations, and the bearish trend continued, with both Bitcoin and Ethereum getting trapped in short positions. Fortunately, we made a decision to re-enter near the short-term bottom of 86,500 for Bitcoin and around 2,812 for Ethereum, completing our exit during the subsequent rebound. However, the unsustainable short-term bullishness and the breakdown of support officially announced that the trend would continue.

Let me clarify a point again: the bear market has clearly begun. But don’t think that the decline in a bear market can be completed in a month. Regarding the target of 75,000 for Bitcoin, I have previously stated that it will be reached, but every wave of movement will have a period of repair when it approaches a dense position or historical support, and each of these phases is what we refer to as a wave.

So what is the target for this round?

Looking at the monthly chart of Bitcoin, referencing the bull market cycle from April to November 2021, the structural double top on the monthly chart can further reinforce our bearish view. In the previous round, the touch of the monthly EMA21 formed a small bottom, leading to a prolonged bull market. At this moment, Bitcoin is at the same position, testing the monthly EMA21 again. If you ask me if I believe it, I still do.

So at this point, chasing shorts at the bottom is not a cost-effective operation. The crypto market is also an "information cocoon," where those who are early benefit, while those who are late only get scraps, and those who are stubborn end up buying at the wrong time. When the market shows consistency, the bearish trend is evident, and it has already told everyone that it is a bear market. So will the market drop by 10,000 points as we wish? I don’t think so. Therefore, a round of mid-level consolidation is particularly important, making long-term holders doubt and short-term traders unclear about the direction.

You might ask again, with a monthly K-line showing fluctuations of over 10,000 points, how do we find entry points? The thought process is quite simple; we have confirmed the macro trend and direction, so we should judge based on smaller moving averages and other indicators. Looking at the 4-hour structure, we can see through the MACD that the price has shown multiple divergences, which is a clear short-term bottom signal, indicating that a short-term reversal could happen at any time. The story of "The Wolf is Coming" has happened once or twice; when the third time comes, what you need to do is to believe more and not less, as the rebound is not far away.

What we need to do is wait for every low point to be bought out by stubborn traders, patiently waiting for the market to test the lows again for entry (rather than stubbornly buying at the first low like I did yesterday and only realizing the second low later). At the current position, I believe we need a rebound of no less than 5,000 points to reverse the current strong downward trend and confuse the market to re-enter a consolidation phase, reducing volatility to clarify the direction again.

As the old saying goes, Rome wasn't built in a day, and a bear market won't end in a month. The road is long and arduous, so maintain ample patience.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。