As of the close of the U.S. stock market, the VIX closed at 26.42, which remains a very awkward range that is neither high nor low. This range often indicates that market panic has been triggered, but it has not yet reached the level of "despair" (above 30). This means that it is very likely that we are not at the bottom of this decline. This situation is very similar to the periods in March and April 2025, as well as from August to October 2024.

In March, due to tariffs, the U.S. stock market and $BTC both fell. Then in April, the panic surged due to U.S.-China tariffs, with Bitcoin's lowest price reaching $75,000. The rebound was caused by the easing of U.S.-China trade relations.

In August 2024, the dominant factor was the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which led to very poor liquidity. This is very similar to the current situation, where the VIX also significantly broke above 50 and then oscillated between 22 and 28. The rebound was triggered by Trump's presidential campaign announcement.

So now, these two structures look very similar, but it feels more akin to March. The VIX has not directly risen above 30, but as time ignites investor panic, it could break through 50. What we are likely facing now is the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in December or the economic data in December.

If the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates in December or if the economic data in December shows a high probability of the U.S. entering a recession, it would indicate that the VIX could enter the 30s or even 50s for the third time, with corresponding declines potentially ranging from 10% to 25%.

In light of this situation, I will slightly adjust my bottom-fishing strategy. Instead of basing it on price, I will base it on VIX data, estimating that it will be above 30.

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