Original | Odaily Planet Daily (@OdailyChina)
Polymarket has become the most popular prediction market, with record highs in active traders and new accounts in October. According to Dune data, the number of active traders on Polymarket reached 471,000 in October, with 440,000 new accounts. The impressive performance may be related to Polymarket's confirmation of launching a token and conducting an airdrop in October, attracting many players with a mindset of taking advantage of the situation.
However, viewing Polymarket merely as the next "big opportunity" in the crypto space underestimates the potential for players to make money on Polymarket. According to the official leaderboard, thousands of users earn over tens of thousands of dollars each month on Polymarket, with some traders even making millions. Their success is invariably due to having controllable risk strategies and sufficient knowledge in specific areas.
You might wonder, if you don't follow sports events like the NBA or have no understanding of politics, can you still make money betting in prediction markets? In traditional prediction markets, this might be the case, but the emergence of Polymarket has changed everything.
Thanks to the transparency of blockchain, we can now easily observe the profit situations of all Polymarket accounts and identify traders with high win rates and substantial profits in specific fields. We can refer to them as "prophets," or, following the popular terminology from the past Meme market, call them "smart money."
After discovering that endgame strategies are not the correct way for ordinary users to make money in prediction markets (Read more: 95% win rate, still losing money: The endgame "financial management" trap in prediction markets that I have experienced), I began to study the smart money following strategy on Polymarket.
In this article, I will introduce several outstanding smart money accounts in the fields of sports, crypto, and politics for readers' reference. Readers can directly search for these accounts on Polymarket. These three fields are the most popular prediction categories on Polymarket, thus producing the most smart money. Finally, I will share my thoughts on the Polymarket following strategy at the end.
Smart Money in Sports
Sports competitions are a major category on Polymarket, encompassing several significant global events, such as the NBA, LOL, NHL, etc. Although they are all sports competitions, there are significant differences between different sports events. A player with in-depth knowledge of the NBA may not have the same understanding of LOL, as experience and knowledge have considerable non-transferability. Therefore, when filtering for smart money, we should also adhere to the standard of high win rates in specific events.
0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2 (NBA, CFB, NFL Smart Money)
- Total Prediction Matches: 3935
- Total Profit: $344,000
- NBA Win Rate: 75%
- CFB Win Rate: 77.1%
- NFL Win Rate: 82.7%
This account has a total of 3935 betting matches on Polymarket, with an overall win rate of 71.1%. This trader joined Polymarket in February 2025 and not only has a high win rate but also displays versatility. According to Polymarket Analytics data, they have bet on 612 NBA matches with a win rate of 75%; 597 CFB matches with a win rate of 77.1%; and 214 NFL matches with a win rate of 82.7%.
Looking at their account data, there are many sports events with hundreds of bets that also have good win rates. However, this trader's style is to adjust their positions based on real-time game situations, which may also be a reason for maintaining a high win rate.
S-Works (NBA, NHL Smart Money)
- Total Prediction Matches: 6,487
- Total Profit: $2.15 million
- NBA Win Rate: 64.9%
- NHL Win Rate: 59.4%
This account has a total of 6487 betting matches on Polymarket, with an overall win rate of 67.3%. This trader joined Polymarket in August 2024. According to Polymarket Analytics data, they have bet on 1128 NBA matches with a win rate of 64.9%; and 620 NHL matches with a win rate of 59.4%.
This trader typically does not bet on which team will win a specific match but instead capitalizes on the price increase of low-probability events. For example, they might bet at a price of 1 cent that a team will win the championship and sell it once it rises to 10 cents.
RN1 (NFL, CFB Smart Money)
- Total Prediction Matches: 7,313
- Total Profit: $1.21 million
- NFL Win Rate: 79.4%
- CFB Win Rate: 62%
This account has a total of 7313 betting matches on Polymarket, with an overall win rate of 59.2%. This trader joined Polymarket in December 2024. According to Polymarket Analytics data, they have bet on 548 CFB matches with a win rate of 62%; and 165 NFL matches with a win rate of 79.4%.
This trader is a typical hedging player, often betting on both sides and adjusting their positions during the game. However, the size of their positions in their betting track can still reveal their winning prediction preferences.
Mayuravarma (CFB Smart Money)
- Total Prediction Matches: 103
- Total Profit: $2.14 million
- CFB Win Rate: 68.2%
This account has a total of 103 betting matches on Polymarket, with an overall win rate of 56.7%. This trader joined Polymarket in October 2025 and earned $2.14 million in just one month. However, with only 103 total prediction matches, they should not be considered a smart money analysis subject, as fewer matches mean a greater element of luck. Mayuravarma has bet on 22 CFB matches with a win rate of 68.2%.
Mayuravarma is currently one of the hottest traders, placing large bets, sometimes betting millions of dollars on a single match before it starts, and never cutting losses during the process, exhibiting a style of either winning or going to zero.
Smart Money in Politics
Political betting was initially the most prominent category on Polymarket, touted for its authenticity that surpasses polls. This has indeed been the case in many significant political events, most famously predicting that Trump would win the U.S. election in 2024.
Due to the vast information asymmetry in the political field, many insider addresses can easily emerge on Polymarket. In theory, they represent the "smartest" money, but an insider player would not be foolish enough to repeatedly use the same address for insider betting, making it difficult for us to capture them. However, Polymarket does have some high-win-rate addresses with research in politics, and these are the smart money we can refer to.
HolyMoses7
- Total Prediction Matches: 2257
- Total Profit: $90,000
- Expertise: Geopolitics, Middle East
This trader has a total of 2257 betting matches on Polymarket, with 676 in the political field and a win rate of 78%. Their strongest trading expertise lies in geopolitics and Middle Eastern politics. According to Polymarket Analytics data, their most profitable event was predicting that Nicusor Dan would be the winner of the Romanian presidential election, earning over $24,000 in that event.
aenews2
- Total Prediction Matches: 1954
- Total Profit: $1.46 million
- Expertise: Trump-related, South Korea
This trader has a total of 1954 betting matches on Polymarket, with 625 in the political field and a win rate of 72.2%. Their strongest trading expertise lies in Trump-related events, South Korean politics, and geopolitical events. According to Polymarket Analytics data, their most profitable event was predicting the presidential candidate of the People Power Party (PPP) in South Korea, earning over $1 million in that event.
Anjun
- Total Prediction Matches: 8446
- Total Profit: $795,000
- Expertise: Trump-related
This trader has a total of 8446 betting matches on Polymarket, with 879 in the political field and a win rate of 64.2%. Their strongest trading expertise lies in Trump-related events. According to Polymarket Analytics data, they have bet on 349 Trump-related events with a win rate of 71.1%. However, their most profitable prediction event was "the highest-grossing movie of 2025," for which they have already earned $58,000, although the result has not yet been revealed.
Smart Money in the Crypto Market
The crypto field is currently one of the main prediction categories on Polymarket, where you can predict the price fluctuations of mainstream coins like BTC over time frames of 15 minutes, 1 hour, 1 day, 1 month, etc. You can also predict events like token prices after a project launches. For token price predictions, Polymarket resembles a contract market, and there may not be any true smart money; we can only see how traders perceive the upcoming market trends.
At the same time, for predictions regarding specific crypto project events, although there is information asymmetry, leading to insider addresses, similar to political predictions, these insider addresses are unlikely to continuously use the same address, making it impossible to conduct ongoing observation and recording. We can only monitor large or unusual bets on an event using tools. Below, we will only mention two smart money addresses in the crypto field for reference.
Anjun
- Crypto Prediction Matches: 301
- Win Rate: 83.1%
In addition to excelling in political predictions, Anjun is also skilled in crypto predictions. According to Polymarket Analytics data, they have placed a total of 301 bets in the crypto field, with a win rate of 83.1%, and their bets are almost exclusively predictions on the price trends of tokens like BTC.
kingofcoinflips
- Crypto Prediction Matches: 631
- Win Rate: 58.2%
This trader focuses on predicting the price trends of tokens like BTC, SOL, and ETH on Polymarket. According to Polymarket Analytics data, their total prediction matches amount to 631, all involving token price predictions, with a win rate of 58.2%.
The Most Important Point of Following Smart Money: Risk Management and Comparative Analysis
In summary, I would like to emphasize that following smart money on Polymarket does not guarantee 100% profitability. Many wallets are not suitable for following, such as Mayuravarma; if players do not have the same capital scale, it is highly likely they will not be able to profit like him.
Moreover, even for those traders with systematic and long-term positive expected value (EV), we cannot blindly follow them, especially for events with higher uncertainty like sports competitions. Because "smart money" does not equal "guaranteed winnings." Some traders may bet on dozens of matches daily, and they might lose most of them, or they may adjust their positions during the matches. If we do not follow all their moves or do not do so in a timely manner, it could lead to losses.
To improve the win rate of the following strategy on Polymarket, players must focus on risk management and comparative analysis. First, allocate positions based on their own capital. Second, compare multiple smart money bets on the same match. If there is a high overlap, it indicates that they have consistent confidence in the outcome of this event. If there are discrepancies, it also allows for adjustments in following positions.
The predictions of events on Polymarket are a reflection of collective intelligence. Due to vested interests, everyone will make the decisions they find most convincing. However, this is merely a prediction. Therefore, we should view Polymarket smart money as a "think tank" for making our own outcome predictions. Proper utilization will significantly increase our win rate on Polymarket.
Finally, this article mainly focuses on my smart money selection ideas and following strategies. Currently, I am doing everything manually, using data tools like Polymarket Analytics to assist in decision-making.
There are two reasons for this. First, following on Polymarket is different from following in the Meme market; it does not require high trading speed. The probability of a certain event can remain at the same value for a long time, allowing us enough time to analyze and compare the movements of smart money before placing orders. Second, most of the current Polymarket following tools or trading tools are Telegram Bots and are still in the early development stage. Considering overall security factors, I have not used them.
For various tools related to Polymarket, you can read previous articles produced by Odaily:
Odaily Selection: 8 Handy Prediction Market Trading Tools
Odaily Selection: In the Layout of Prediction Markets, These Tools Can Double Your Trading Win Rate
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
