Bitcoin falls below $100,000, and changes in the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy could lead to significant market shifts. Every piece of news from November 17 to 21 could become the last straw that breaks the market.
This week (November 17 to November 21), the global cryptocurrency market and macroeconomic landscape will face a series of key events that are likely to determine the market direction before the end of the year.
In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin experienced a "straight drop," falling from around $100,000 to below $93,000 at one point. Meanwhile, the market evaporated $1.1 trillion in market value within 41 days, with over 150,000 people liquidated in just 24 hours.
In the macroeconomic realm, with the end of the U.S. government shutdown, a large amount of delayed economic data is set to be released. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in December has dropped below 50%, now at 44.4%, and the market is closely watching the speeches of several Federal Reserve officials this week.
November 17: Black Monday, Crypto Market Plummets
The week began with an unsettling Monday for the cryptocurrency market, as multiple key events unfolded simultaneously, painting a complex picture of the current market.
- Bitcoin faced significant sell-offs. Early Monday, Bitcoin dropped sharply from around $100,000, briefly falling below the $93,000 mark. This plunge marked the largest weekly decline for Bitcoin in months, erasing all gains made this year.
More concerning is the rising correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. tech stocks, with a 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 index reaching about 0.80, the highest level since 2022.
Monad public sale contrasts with market weakness. Despite the poor market environment, Coinbase proceeded with the public sale of Monad as scheduled on November 17. This public sale project, pushed forward during a market downturn, tests investors' confidence and willingness to participate.
ZKsync large-scale token unlock. On November 17, ZKsync (ZK) experienced a large-scale token unlock, with a total of 173 million ZK (approximately $9.03 million) entering the circulating market. During a market downturn, large-scale unlocks typically increase selling pressure, further testing the market's absorption capacity.
UK High Court hears 60,000 Bitcoin money laundering case. On November 17, the UK High Court held a hearing regarding a money laundering case involving 60,000 Bitcoins. These Bitcoins were purchased by the main suspect, Qian Zhimin, at an average price of 2,815 yuan, while their value had skyrocketed 266 times to 750,000 yuan each by the day of the ruling.
November 18: Earnings Reports and Fed Voices
On Tuesday, the market's focus shifted from the cryptocurrency sector to traditional finance, but important signals affecting the crypto market remained.
ALT5 Sigma releases new earnings report. Financial strategy public company ALT5 Sigma will release its new earnings report on November 18. As a bridge connecting traditional finance and the crypto sector, its performance may reflect the operational status of crypto service providers.
Kashkari hosts a fireside chat. On November 18 (Tuesday) at 02:00 Beijing time, 2026 FOMC voting member and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will host a fireside chat. As a more hawkish member of the Federal Reserve, his statements may influence market expectations for the December Federal Reserve meeting.
November 19: Regulation and Institutional Changes
Key events on Wednesday focused on regulatory policies and financial infrastructure, which could have long-term impacts on the market.
Trump-nominated CFTC chair nominee attends hearing. Michael Selig, the Trump-nominated chair nominee for the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), will attend a Senate hearing on November 19. This appointment could determine the future direction of U.S. crypto regulatory policy.
FASB discusses accounting standards for crypto assets. The Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) will hold a meeting to discuss accounting standards for crypto assets. The outcome of this meeting may affect how companies account for their holdings of crypto assets, thereby influencing institutional allocation willingness.
Binance delists RUNEUSD coin-margined perpetual contract. Binance will automatically liquidate the RUNEUSD coin-margined perpetual contract on November 19, 2025, at 17:00 (UTC+8). This reflects the exchange's trend of controlling risk during periods of increased market volatility.
November 20: Collision of Data and Policy
Thursday is undoubtedly the most critical day of the week, with multiple significant economic data releases and Federal Reserve policy information that could serve as a turning point for the market.
Federal Reserve releases monetary policy meeting minutes. On November 20 (Thursday) at 03:00 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting. These minutes may reveal internal discussions and disagreements within the Federal Reserve during the last meeting, providing more clues about whether to cut rates in December.
Delayed September non-farm payroll report released. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the highly anticipated September employment situation report on Thursday. This report was originally scheduled for release on October 3 but was delayed due to the government shutdown. This data is a key basis for the Federal Reserve to assess economic conditions and decide on interest rate policy.
Williams speaks. FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will speak after the release of the Federal Reserve meeting minutes. As a core figure in the Federal Reserve, his statements may reinforce or weaken the message conveyed by the meeting minutes.
November 21: Fed Officials Speak Intensively
On Friday, several Federal Reserve officials will take turns speaking, potentially reacting to the data and policy information released the previous day, providing new trading clues for the market.
Goolsbee speaks. On November 21 (Friday) at 02:40 Beijing time, 2025 FOMC voting member and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will speak. He is often viewed as a dovish member of the Federal Reserve, making his statements noteworthy.
Paulson speaks on economic outlook. At 05:30, 2026 FOMC voting member and Philadelphia Fed President Paulson will speak on the economic outlook. The market will pay attention to his assessment of the economic situation, particularly regarding inflation and employment.
Williams speaks again. At 20:30, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams will speak again. This will be his second public appearance in less than 48 hours, potentially further clarifying the Federal Reserve's policy stance.
Logan participates in a panel discussion. At 22:00, 2026 FOMC voting member and Dallas Fed President Logan will participate in a panel discussion at the "2025 Swiss National Bank and Its Observers" event. Her views are typically highly regarded by the market and may influence interest rate expectations.
This week, the market resembles a carefully choreographed drama, with the Federal Reserve undoubtedly taking center stage. From Wednesday to Friday, the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, economic data, and officials' speeches will come in succession, collectively outlining a clear picture of the December interest rate decision.
For investors, maintaining patience and caution during periods of increased market volatility may be more important than chasing fluctuations. As Nic Carter, co-founder of Castle Island Ventures, suggests: "Emotionally detach from cryptocurrencies, don't put too much pressure on yourself to 'succeed' in 'this cycle.'"
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